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15 Reasons Why Biden Can (and will) Win in 2024: Saturday's GNR [1]
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Date: 2023-11-11
heading into what is sure to be a highly litigious year for the battleground state — in 2022, Pennsylvania saw the
the race for state Supreme Court. Democrats now have a 5-2 majority on the court and a
a measure to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution despite Republicans enacting a new sweeping photo ID law, attempting to raise the threshold for the measure to pass and more.
In Kentucky, voters reelected Democratic governor Andy Beshear, who was running against Republican state attorney general Daniel Cameron. A defender of Kentucky’s abortion ban, Cameron was also the attorney general who declined to bring charges against the law enforcement officers who killed Breonna Taylor in her bed in 2020 after breaking into her apartment in a mistaken search for drugs.
The vote in Ohio, where the end of Roe v. Wade resurrected an extreme antiabortion bill, makes it eight.
None of it worked. Voters protected the right to abortion. Since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision recognizing the constitutional right to abortion in June 2022, voters in all seven state elections where the issue was on the ballot have fought back to protect abortion rights.
In Ohio, voters enshrined the right of individuals to make their own healthcare decisions, including the right to abortion, into the state constitution. Opponents of abortion rights have worked hard since the summer to stop the measure from passing, trying first to make it more difficult to amend the constitution—voters overwhelmingly rejected that measure in an August special election—then by blanketing the state with disinformation about the measure, including through official state websites and with ads by former Fox News Channel personality Tucker Carlson, and finally by dropping 26,000 voters from the rolls.
I wouldn’t put too much stock in this kind of statistic, but it is still nice to hear:
x Kentucky Governor’s race has predicted the winner of the Presidency in every election since 2003.
The Virginia State Senate has predicted the winner of the Presidency in every election since 2003.
Democrats won both last night.
The polls say one thing, the RESULTS are different. — Phoenix_Ranger_ProdigalSon (@Phoenix_Ranger2) November 8, 2023 and this tweet made me laugh: x “We didn’t lose Mississippi” is not the flex Republicans think it is. — Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) November 8, 2023 2. Special elections — our best predictors — look amazing Democrats are crushing it in special elections. In August, Tennessee state Rep. Justin Jones won back his seat in the legislature after getting expelled by the Republican majority for protesting gun violence. His margin of victory was an overwhelming 56 percentage points, in a district Joe Biden had won by 41 points in 2020 and Hillary Clinton had carried by 36 points in 2016. This is the sort of overperformance that’s easily dismissed as a one-off, with such unusual and dramatic circumstances that it couldn’t possibly hold any broader meaning for the country at large. And that’s true—indeed, no single special election should be dissected in order to divine the will of the electorate. But some 300 miles away, at the far eastern end of Tennessee, in a ruby red and nearly all-white district, virtually the same thing happened on the same day. And then a month later, there was a repeat in the district next door. In fact, there have been 27 typical special elections pitting a Democrat against a Republican in the 2023-24 election cycle so far, and Democrats have overperformed Biden in 20 and Clinton in 23. When numbers like that start to pile up, it’s time to sit up and take notice. And what we notice is this: It’s beginning to look a lot like 2018 around here. That’s very good news. 3. Generation Z is VOTING and voting BLUE x Jaw-dropped at some of the Gen Z turnout rates from last night's election compared to 2021.
—Temple University: 523% HIGHER
—Penn State: 300% HIGHER
—College of William & Mary: 128% HIGHER
Gen Z turned out & made Republicans find out. We will do it again in 2024. Thank a Gen Z. — Victor Shi (@Victorshi2020) November 8, 2023 4. Polls a year out are even less predictive than polls a few weeks out Americans know the difference between answering a survey and casting a ballot, even if the media doesn't. For one thing, polls simply aren’t accurate enough to predict close races (which, given the Electoral College, are the only races that matter) with precision. This is true no matter when a poll is fielded, but especially when the election is a year away. But more importantly, even if we could perfectly survey every voter in America about who they think they would vote for today, it can’t tell us what will happen between now and Election Day that might change their minds. And it can’t tell us how being in an actual voting booth might change their actions. Americans know the difference between answering a survey and casting a ballot, even if the polling industrial complex and pundits don’t. 5. Approval ratings of presidents don’t mean what they used to approval ratings are an illusory measure of a modern president’s electoral chances. While voters may be responding to the same approval questions today that they have for the last 90 years, presidential approval simply doesn’t have the same electoral significance today that it has in decades past. A president in the 20th century was very likely to enjoy broad majority support for all or nearly all of their term in office. But, as you will see, low and stable approval ratings have become the defining features of presidential politics since W. Bush’s 9/11 bump faded in 2003. the obsession with Biden’s approval numbers creates the illusion that his path to re-election depends on making him and his administration more popular, and not on ensuring the roughly 90 million people who have voted against MAGA in the last three elections do so again in 2024. In the Pre-Voting Rights Era, presidents were underwater in about 1 out of 8 months they served; in the Collapse Era, it was nearly the reverse - they were underwater in 6 out of 8 months they served. And where Pre-Voting Rights Era presidents fell below the share of the vote that elected them, Collapse Era presidents were so just shy of 90 percent of the time. Here I want to come back to the idea that not only has net average presidential approval been declining, the approval measure itself cannot reasonably be said to be measuring the same thing today as in the past.
6. Trump already proved he can’t beat Biden
Why does this matter? The math, for starters. Trump’s base is smaller than it used to be and shrinking every year. In order to succeed where he failed in 2020, by definition Trump would have to pick up more voters than he had in the last election. But instead of spending his time in office trying to reach more centrist voters, Trump played to his base and to extremism. It has only gotten worse since he left office.
7. Swing states look good
Trump looks weaker in the key battlegrounds.
In the critical swing states, namely Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, Democrats performed well in the 2022 midterms— better than they did in the rest of the country. Importantly, the voters who gave Democrats statewide wins in each of these states aren’t going away. They’ll be back in 2024, no doubt in greater numbers.
8. Trump’s legal trouble will only get worse in the next year
In three months, jury selection will begin in D.C. for the federal case against Trump for conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election. This is no doubt a special case, with the possibility that politics will taint the jury. But even accounting for that, it remains very likely Trump will be convicted in that case. If he is, that will cause a huge crisis in the GOP. At their national convention, they will be either forced to nominate a convicted criminal—and for a sizable number of voters , that’s a bridge too far—or they will fail to nominate him, which will likely lead Trump to attack the GOP and cause millions of MAGA faithful to stay home or vote for a third party candidate.
9. It’s the economy, stupid
We can debate whether the economy is strong and delivering for enough people, whether inflation is still high for key goods and services, or whether consumer confidence is misplaced. But what no one is talking about, but which was on the expectations list of nearly every economist and banker in 2022, is a recession.
10. The republican party is a hot mess and it is getting tougher or them to hide
It’s hard to witness the dysfunction and disunity in the House GOP conference and not see it for what it is: a symptom of deep party schism. The GOP has become a Christian nationalist, pro-authoritarian party, and there’s no longer room for traditional, conservative or moderate Republicans. There’s only extremism. That boiled over recently when more traditional Republicans opposed the Speakership of Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) and were hit with death threats and intimidation of family members.
11. Abortion is a winning issue for us
Democratic officials have been saying for months that the fight for abortion rights has become the issue that best motivates Democrats to vote, and is also the issue that persuades the most Republicans to vote for Democrats. It’s a sign that no matter how weak Mr. Biden’s standing is, the political environment and the issues terrain are still strong for Democrats running on abortion access and against Republicans who defend bans.
come folks have been freaking out because trump is trying to walk back his opposition to abortion rights and arguing for just a 15 week ban instead of the complete bans. First of all, no one is going to forget that his SC nominees did this. Second, we have him on tape, repeatedly saying that he will overturn Roe (in 2016). Finally, the 15 week thing is a stinker too:
Youngkin assumed he could pull a fast one and trick women voters into accepting a more moderate tone on abortion restrictions—which he also saw as a smart strategy for Republicans nationwide. (Youngkin’s abortion ban at 15 weeks included exceptions for rape, incest, and medical emergencies.) In an election where every seat in the state legislature was on the ballot, Democrats kept their narrow advantage in the state Senate and wrested control of the House of Delegates from the GOP. Youngkin might not have been on the ballot himself, but he is absolutely the election’s biggest loser. Youngkin bet his political future—including a possible presidential run—on the idea that he could find a middle ground between “extreme” total bans on abortion and his softer 15-week ban with exceptions. But a ban is a ban, and voters, especially women, are making it clear to Republicans that they don’t see the difference as meaningful.
12. the culture war bullshit isn’t working
As abortion access has become the top issue motivating Democrats, and with same-sex marriage broadly accepted in America, Republicans casting about for an issue to motivate social conservatives landed on restricting rights for transgender people. On Tuesday, that didn’t work.
13. hyper local races continue to go our way
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