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Ohio GOTV: the Path to Victory [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-11-10

We canvassed in every one of the green areas in the NYT map to the right except in Athens County, as well as the Orange (majority No) counties of Greene, Madison, Sandusky and Warren.

3,482 volunteers showed up to knock on doors in Ohio with Hope Springs on Saturday. We knocked on doors in three Congressional Districts (OH-01 represented by Democrat Greg Landsman, OH-09 - Marcy Kaptur and OH-13 - Emilia Sykes) as well as the suburban counties around the Columbus and Dayton areas.

This ballot initiative in Ohio also has ramifications for the Senate election in the state next year. Sure, not every Hope Springs volunteer is going to come out next year. I imagine we are likely to have a lot more men (percentage wise) who come out to canvass for Sherrod Brown. But think about the confidence that winning these elections this year has on the prospects for Democrats retaining the U.S. Senate next year.

As you can see from the Edison Research/ National Election Pool exit poll, 43% of vote came from these suburban areas. And the vote here was close. But Hope Springs volunteers had knocked on 1,632,023 doors in the Ohio suburbs (prior to last weekend) and we had created quite a healthy database on the electorate there. We identified 136,761 Reproductive Freedom voters , women and men who told us they supported this Constitutional Amendment and planned to vote last Tuesday.

From the beginning, Hope Springs has focused on the suburbs, where elections continue to be decided. This is intentional. Democratic party organizations continue to have vibrant, active orgs in the cities, especially those larger than 100,000 residents. And driving turnout in these urban areas is critical to electoral success. But if Democrats could win just by holding the cities, we’d be golden.

Hope Springs from Field PAC volunteers gained valuable, valuable experience in the August election that prepared us for this one. It was one of many aspects where the August special election — for the purpose of increasing the electoral threshold we would have had to reach for this Issue 1 to pass — was an obvious mis-calculation. Maybe Republicans had no choice, but they came out of Tuesday night with a lot of bullet wounds in their feet.

It can be difficult to be objective about how you did during GOTV (get-out-the-vote) Week after the election is called. Either you won or you lost. In Ohio, we won. So exhilarations all around. But, as they say, the numbers don’t lie. And these weekly (generally) posts are all about the numbers.

Hope Springs from Field volunteers knocked on 252,096 doors on Saturday and talked to 18,806 voters. 11,810 of those voters answered at least some of our questions on the Issues Survey — most gave some indication of their intention to vote (or whether they already had) and many on their support for Issue 1.

But our Ohio volunteers were out not just on Saturday, but Friday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, as well. You can see the data from those four days to the left. By centering on the Saturday numbers, we are able to compare like to like, as most of our canvassing data comes from our weekly Saturday canvasses.

The Economy continued to be the Top Concern we found in Ohio last Saturday. Voters just haven’t shaken that concern, and we have voters wondering if things will get better by Christmas. Reproductive Healthcare/Freedom was the secondly most cited concern, which isn’t much of a surprise given all the media on the Constitutional Amendment. Hamas’ attack on Israel was the third most frequently mentioned concern. Also, not much of a surprise, since the news about Israel is just as prominent as the coverage of Issue 1, the constitutional amendment on abortion.

On Sunday, with less than two thousand results, Economic Uncertainty was the top concern, Abortion was second and Partisan Bickering was third.

Hope Springs from Field PAC has been knocking on doors in swing states since March in a grassroots effort to prepare the 2024 Electoral Battleground in what has been called the First and Second Rounds of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We canvass Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only do Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans.

2023 was the warm-up to 2024. Both the Senate and the White House is on the line, and our voter outreach in these swing states both takes the measure of voter attitudes there and provides direct evidence that Democrats Deliver! Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up), GOTV and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization

Hope Springs from Field understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical to favorable election outcomes. Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do. Both volunteers and voters rave about this systemic approach/outreach. We need your help to have the greatest impact in 2024!

Joe Biden’s Approval numbers among the Ohioans we talked to was 56% last Saturday; his Disapproval number was 7%. Remember, narrowly targeted walk universe so we expect these numbers to be less reflective of the overall electorate during GOTV. Senator Brown’s Job Approval was 66% with 6% of the voters we talked to on Saturday expressing Disapproval. Approval of Governor DeWine, meanwhile, was 23%; Disapproval was 39% last Saturday. These spikes (or dips) are a direct result of people’s attitudes towards Issue 1. Issue 1 has been really clarifying for the voters we talk to and so their attitudes towards the Democrats we asked them about served to represent their opposition to changing the state constitution to benefit conservative positions.

Hope Springs from Field volunteers registered 7 new voters. Voter registration has ended in order to vote in the November election, and i would surmise that these new voters just turned 18 (or moved to Ohio). We also helped 126 more voters update their voter registration to comply with federal law. We differentiate between new voters registered and existing voters re-registering because we plan to continue our New Voter Postcard effort for newly registered voters, and even add Voter Video Chains this cycle.

738 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms. We send completed CSRs to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder. We have even had candidates walk with Hope Springs volunteers because they had received one of these requests and wanted to understand how we collect them.

In Ohio, we have gotten a really good, really positive response to the CSRs (i probably need to write a separate diary about that) from voters who have commented about how it influences their attitudes about Democrats. In the end, though, voter attitudes about offering this opportunity really depends on elected officials and whether or not they take them seriously.

We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters. At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter.

But the main focus of our canvassing right now is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns. Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary. Creating this kind of data isn’t done with a specific goal in mind but has the purpose of engaging voters and creating a dataset that any Democratic candidate can use in opposition to a Republican.

Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as Congressional Districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022). There is a lot of work to be done!

By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions, Hope Springs from Field seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them.

We are definitely asking for help. If you are able to donate to our efforts to fight against Issue 1, identify abortion rights supporters, protect our voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, please help:

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization

You can follow that link for our mailing address, as well. Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/11/10/2204860/-Ohio-the-Path-to-Victory?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web

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