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Kitchen Table Kibitzing: Hansen Says 1.5 "Deader Than a Doornail" [1]
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Date: 2023-11-09
In an “unintentional global geoengineering experiment,” an effort to cut down on the levels of pollution caused by the sulfur emissions in commercial ship lanes has increased ocean temperatures due to a decrease in marine clouds, according to a new study published in Oxford Open Climate Change and led by climate scientist Jim Hansen.
In 2020, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) cut back on the polluting sulfur content in ships’ fuel, whose aerosol contributed to cloud formation known as “ship tracks.” The heat, which ship tracks previously transmitted into space, is now trapped in the oceans.
… Hansen said Earth's energy imbalance is much higher than a decade ago. "That imbalance has now doubled. That's why global warming will accelerate. That's why global melting will accelerate," he said. When asked if this was evidence of the extreme warming we've seen over the past five months, Hansen replied, "Yeah. Absolutely it is." Hansen said the IMO regulations, which were designed to reduce aerosol pollution, will have a long-term warming effect on the climate, pushing global temperatures 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels and potentially even 2 C — the threshold governments said they would try to stay within under the Paris Accord — even faster. "The 1.5-degree limit is deader than a doornail," said Hansen, whose 1988 congressional testimony on climate change helped sound the alarm of global warming. "And the two-degree limit can be rescued, only with the help of purposeful actions."
After a highly contentious meeting between rich and poor nations in Abu Dhabi last weekend, negotiators finally reached consensus on some aspects of the Loss and Damage Fund which is on the agenda to become operational at COP28 in Dubai later this month.
“Loss and damage” refers to the sometimes irreversible effects of climate change on the most vulnerable least developed countries (LDCs).
The agreement did not include details on which countries and institutions would seed the fund or where funds would be allocated. It did, however, stipulate that the World Bank would house the fund for its initial four years. Developing countries, who will have a seat on the fund’s board, were opposed to the World Bank overseeing the fund.
CNN reports:
“It is a somber day for climate justice, as rich countries turn their backs on vulnerable communities,” said Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy at nonprofit Climate Action Network International. “Rich countries … have not only coerced developing nations into accepting the World Bank as the host of the Loss and Damage Fund but have also evaded their duty to lead in providing financial assistance to those communities and countries.”
Euractiv details the resistance of both the European Union and the United States to the Loss and Damage fund, noting that both fear it would “open the door to unlimited legal liabilities that would translate into hundreds of billions in reparations.”
The EU finally gave in to pressure under two conditions – that the fund be targeted to the most vulnerable countries only and that the funding base be as large as possible so that major economies like China also contribute. The EU also insisted that the new fund be tied to “serious commitments” on emissions reduction, warning that “no amount of money on this planet” will be enough to address the issue of loss and damage unless efforts are made to cut emissions. www.euractiv.com/...
According to the AP, the US State Department was “pleased with an agreement being reached” but was not successful in having language in the document that would make contributions voluntary.
“We regret that the text does not reflect consensus concerning the need for clarity on the voluntary nature of contributions; any contributions to funding arrangements, including to a fund, are on a purely voluntary basis,” the State Department said.
An initial $500 million is sought to launch the fund, but as the New York Times reports, trillions will be needed to adequately address the devastation impacting LDCs.
After 30 years of discussions, the parties agreed last year at COP27 in Egypt to include the Loss and Damage in the meeting's final text. Negotiations on the specifics were to be ironed out ahead of COP28 but were not successful until last weekend’s emergency meeting.
The Times reports:
Many developing countries are tired of being told to reduce their emissions at the expense of desperately needed economic growth. And they are still waiting for hundreds of billions of dollars in financing, to shift to clean energy and build protections against climate change, that wealthier countries promised more than a decade ago, but have never fully delivered. Rich nations are wary of accepting responsibility for climate damages, fearful that they could face unlimited liability. And while the United States and other industrialized countries are increasing their use of renewable energy, they continue to expand their fossil fuel production. Nevertheless, the agreement to keep the loss and damage fund moving forward suggests that international community is still capable of working together on efforts to adapt to a rapidly warming world, if just barely.
For background on Loss and damage ahead of COP28 later this month, check out Carbon Brief’s Q&A: The fight over the ‘loss-and-damage fund’ for climate change.
Study: Drought a key factor in Central American migration to the United States
AUSTIN (KXAN) — Despite a focus on crime, poverty, and political unrest in Central America, weather conditions appear to be among the most significant factors when it comes to predicting immigration to the United States’ southern border. A study by researchers at the University of Texas at Austin and the University of Utah tracked more than 323,000 migrants traveling with family from Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras. It found that conditions one standard deviation drier than usual contributed to a nearly 71% increase in migration to the U.S.
Living Change Podcast: Plant-Based Climate Influence with DJ John Richards
KEXP DJ John Richards is well known for his global music influence and committed Morning Show fanbase, but in this lively conversation, Andrea unearths the backstory on his somewhat stealth climate influence. Recorded live at John’s fully vegan Seattle bar, Life On Mars (which is now – and rightly so – a global independent music tourist destination), this conversation brings his “living change” to full light (and, that’d be a disco ball light). Learn about plant-based-eating and eBike-riding climate influence from a truly surprising validator.
Mongabay discusses Can carbon markets solve Africa’s climate finance woes?
At the COP28 climate summit set to be held in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates later this month, carbon markets are sure to be high on the agenda. And some African leaders are hoping to capitalize. The Africa Carbon Markets Initiative (ACMI), a consortium of Global North donors, corporate representatives, conservation groups, and energy lobbyists, says those markets could plug the continent’s climate finance gaps and fund a green transition. But African environmental groups say they’re a “false solution” to the climate crisis that will bring familiar troubles without leaving much of value behind. ...in a statement released in the summit’s run-up, more than 500 African civil society groups countered by saying that carbon markets would instead “embolden wealthy nations and large corporations to continue polluting the world, much to Africa’s detriment.”
Without Warning: A Lack of Weather Stations Is Costing African Lives According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United States and the European Union combined have 636 weather radar stations for a population of 1.1 billion, while Africa, with a population of 1.2 billion, has just 37, which are unevenly distributed across the continent. The WMO also notes that some 60 percent of the African population is “not covered by early warning systems to cope with extreme weather and climate change.” Early warnings of an impending disaster give people a chance to seek shelter or evacuate. Compare 2021’s Hurricane Ida in the U.S. with 2019’s Tropical Cyclone Idai in East Africa: Both were Category 4 storms, but Ida killed fewer than 100 people, while Idai killed more than 1,000. Early warning was a key difference between the two disasters. “U.S. residents were alerted to evacuate before Hurricane Ida made landfall, [while] Cyclone Idai caught African populations by surprise,” scientists wrote in Nature.
From droughts to floods: how Eastern African countries are responding to the rising El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole
This is a worrying trend in which opposite extremes occur in quick succession without time for recovery. Dry lands are also less able to absorb water; topsoil gets degraded following a long dry spell, increasing the risk of flash flooding. Such compound extremes chip away at the ability of countries and communities to adapt, making them less resilient and therefore more vulnerable to future shocks. In addition to the loss of lives and livelihoods, flooding can lead to displacement, disease and other impacts. This affects communities’ ability to spring back, especially after a devastating drought that wiped out over 10 million livestock and left over 55 million people in exacerbated food crisis.
A new paper World scientists' Warning: The behavioural crisis driving ecological overshoot addresses climate anxiety, exploring the concept of “ecological overshoot,” defined as our consuming natural resources at a faster clip than Earth’s ability to replenish them.
Writing about the report in the article Do we need to change our behavior?, authors Emily Atkin and Arielle Samuelson suggest that by changing our patterns of consumption we might be able to make a dent in our climate anxiety.
If the world’s highest emitting countries only focus on technological climate solutions (like switching to renewable energy) and not systemic behavioral ones (like buying less stuff and using less energy), the authors argue, climate change may be slowed. But ecological overshoot—which includes symptoms like biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse, and ocean acidification—will worsen. And as overshoot worsens, the authors argue, “the likelihood of societal breakdown increases.” The researchers thus call for global recognition of a so-called “Human Behavioral Crisis,” and propose that countries and individuals start recognizing the need for systemic change in social norms in addition to a change in energy systems. “This paper is a call to action,” co-author Mat Maroni said in a statement. “It is a new way to frame an issue that deserves a better conversation.”
Columbia Journalism Review last month published Q&A: Ritwika Mitra’s Reporting on Gender Shows Climate Change’s Fingerprints exploring the ideas of the freelance journalist who frequently focuses on the climate emergency in India. In the article, she discusses the human rights abuses which are being exacerbated by our changing climate. She recalls interviewing a young Indian woman who had been trafficked and how she initially was viewing the story through the lens of poverty but then realized the girl was mentioning cyclone after cyclone in her story. When storms hit, there’s the immediate fallout, of course, like houses being blown away—and, in fact, you’ll find when you return a year later to report, there are often still no houses. But even more importantly, there’s how all of this completely disintegrates livelihoods and families. There’s very little food; in household after household, you might see only a kilo of potatoes and a few onions. And everywhere, people are entering these cycles of forced migration. In the villages, the men have left to find work. Increasingly, women are leaving also. It’s the ultimate level of distress, and with so many on the move, you see more human trafficking, often of women and young girls. In her interviews, Mitra says she does not refer to climate change but will ask questions about its impacts on people’s lives; questions like have your crops been less productive than in the past or have you noticed the weather being hotter. She has found that if she uses climate change people cannot relate, even though it is having significant impacts on their lives. We should look at climate change and labor. In India, so many livelihoods are rooted in the informal economy, in home-based labor [such as craft and textiles work, often subcontracted by larger companies, which allows them to avoid taking responsibility for laborers]. I was working on a story recently and realized how much climate change is already disrupting many of these livelihoods—and not just in rural areas, where a lot of our climate coverage focuses, but in large urban areas, too. We’ve talked about how climate change is affecting women and children, but I’d also like to see more work on how it’s affecting queer groups. From Planet Earth & Beyond Todd Lockett writes about Palestine's $500 Billion Reason To Be Subjugated I recently read a fascinating article by Rachel Donald (read it here), where she highlighted a recent UN UNCTAD study that found that underneath the occupied Palestinian territory (oPt), such as Area C of the West Bank and the Mediterranean coast of the Gaza Strip, there are vast reservoirs of oil and natural gas. Studies have found this territory contains 122 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 1.7 billion barrels of oil. All of this is worth around $524 billion! Texas could spend federal funds meant to cut carbon emissions on highway projects
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