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The races to watch today in Minneapolis. [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2023-11-07
I retired as a blogger late in the George W. Bush administration. I came out of retirement yesterday to provide a rundown on the stakes in today’s Minneapolis City Council elections. Here are the races to watch.
Current Minneapolis Council makeup Wards solidly progressive ? corporate oriented Lean 1 +1 2 +1 3 -1 4 -1 5 +1 6 -.5 7 -1 8 -1 9 +1 10 +1 11 -1 12 -.5 13 -1 -1
It takes seven votes to win a Minneapolis Council Majority, represented by the negative integers. The side that gets seven builds a council structure, assigns committee chairs, etc. Since 2021, the council majority has leaned towards the Mayor and profit-motivated interests. They have opposed rent control and seem poised to shell out hundreds of millions of Minneapolis taxpayer dollars to build a new Target Center arena for the NBA Timberwolves.
Likely Minneapolis Council makeup after today Wards solidly progressive ? corporate oriented Lean 1 +1 2 +1 3 -1 4 -1 5 +1 6 ? 7 -1 8 +1 9 +1 10 +1 11 ? 12 +1 13 -1 +1
Grassroots-oriented campaigns in Wards 12 and 8 seem poised to flip those seats to the more solidly progressive column. In this chart, control over Wards 6 and 11 is not so much in doubt due to the election but because it’s unclear who those seats would support for Council Leadership. The Chamber and their corporate allies are pushing to keep wards 8 & 12. The Chamber is backing a straight-up anti-abortion MAGA candidate in Ward 5, the most African-American-oriented ward. With turnout likely to be very, very low, Ward 5 may end up being decisive and representative of a corporate willingness to ally itself with MAGA/forced birthers when convenient.
Left-oriented coalition allies see Ward 7 as another potential pickup opportunity, but as one of the wealthiest pockets in the city, victory there seems unlikely. Victory has a way of quickly making friends, so look for whoever wins wards 6 and 11 to potentially join forces with a new left-leaning majority for pragmatic more than ideological reasons.
Solidly lefty: 1, 2, 9, 10
Allied with business: 3, 4, 13
Therefore, the races to watch today are in wards: 5, 7, 8, 12
Places to watch after today: 6, 11
Wards 1, 2, 9, and 10 will very likely stay in left-leaning hands. On the other hand, more moderate council members are likely to win in wards 3, 4, and 13. (Ward 13 does have a competitive race, but no matter who wins, it's hard to imagine them caucusing with the progressives.)
The races to watch today are:
In Ward 5, if the incumbent wins, that eliminates the path for a Chamber-backed slate.
In Ward 7, if the younger anti-stadium subsidy candidate wins, it would be a significant victory for lefties — although that’s unlikely due to the wealth of the leafy mansion-filled neighborhoods.
In Ward 8 the Council President looks vulnerable to a spirited challenge from a DFL-endorsed opponent in a ward adjacent to where George Floyd was murdered.
In Ward 12, where voters tend to lean slightly left on city issues, the labor and DFL-backed candidate is poised to secure a swing, majority-making seat.
Beyond Election Day
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