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Nikki Haley has one shot, but she won't take it [1]

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Date: 2023-11-03

I had made a prediction of who Donald Trump will pick as his running mate, and I stand by it. A new question has popped up to me on one of my social media feeds. Someone asked me if there’s anything Nikki Haley can do to beat Trump in the primaries. Why, yes. Yes there is. There is also something Ron DeSantis can do to stay in the game. If I was advising either of them, I would tell them this would be their last best hope. It may not work, but I guarantee if they don’t do it, they are both doomed.

The answer? Team up. Let me explain.

Nikki Haley is proving to be very popular with the GOP establishment and the donor class, and the debates have had the impact of bumping her poll numbers to now being the top alternative to the Trump train. Most importantly, her trajectory is going up.

On the other hand, DeSantis is essentially finished as a presidential candidate. Last year around this time, he was on top of the world. He won his election in a landslide, and even carried blue Miami-Dade. At the same time, Trump looked very weak. He made a very low-energy early announcement that was a clear (and failed) attempt to stave off the coming indictments, and his candidates suffered big losses in the election. DeSantis decided to strike while the iron was hot and take on Trump. But he miscalculated two things: the impact that the Trump indictments would have on his base, and DeSantis’ belief in his own political skill.

I’ve lived in Florida a long time, and I can tell you that Republican candidates get treated with kid gloves. DeSantis was not ready for prime time. He made every mistake you could make, and ran what many consider to be the worst presidential campaign in modern history. Meanwhile, Republicans rallied around Trump to fit his persecution complex, and DeSantis was way too timid to try and hit him. Oh, he’s trying now, but it’s far too late. DeSantis’ trajectory has been on a downward trend for months, and his recent, ridiculous decision to try to appear taller in an interview where he was sitting down is the final nail in his coffin. I know he’s screaming that the boot thing isn’t fair, but far more astute politicians have been brought down by much less. (RE: Dean’s scream.)

However, DeSantis still has the white supremacist extremist credentials that Nikki lacks. The reality is that she really needs a right-wing, white male hatemonger on the ticket. DeSantis is the only viable option. If I was advising DeSantis, I would tell him to call Haley and make an offer to be her veep candidate. If I was advising Nikki, I would tell her to call DeSantis so she has a chance of courting the angry, white male vote that is critical to modern GOP candidates. This new Republican party openly courts white supremacists, and having DeSantis is the only conceivable way those bigots would consider voting for a woman who desperately tries to hide that her birth name was Nimarata Randhawa.

Teaming up early isn’t without precedence. Ted Cruz teamed up with Carly Fiorina when he ran in 2016. It didn’t work then because Cruz was just god-awful and never had a chance, but the idea of teaming up with someone who would soften his image was a solid idea.

Odd the party that hates democracy uses it as a title

RIght now, Nikki Haley is polling at 16% in New Hampshire, and so is Ron DeSantis. Trump is polling at 42%. (Everyone else is in low single digits.) Combining forces is their last, best shot at knocking down Trump. If DeSantis drops out and asks his supporters to vote for Haley, with the promise that he’d be her veep, they might come close even if they don’t win. That would provide them the momentum to the other states as the primaries move.

Will this ploy work? If I had to bet, I’d still say no. The GOP does winner take all, and Trump is polling too far ahead. But this isn’t just the last shot, it’s the only shot they have. Nikki needs a game changer to be a threat to Trump, and DeSantis political career is already over, so he has nothing to lose to try for veep. After all, it would still be a promotion and allow him to try again in the future.

At the end of the day, this is the only play I see with any shot at all. I am as sure of this as I’m as sure that neither Haley nor DeSantis will do it. Both candidates hate each other with a passion. DeSantis is such a misogynist and bigot he would never agree to playing second fiddle to a woman—and one with Hindu parents to boot. Haley knows this and would never ask him to help. As it is, they will both go on to be defeated separately—handily and easily. It won’t even be close.

Meanwhile, as Democrats, we have our ticket. I wish I could say that Trump has no chance, but as it stands, he’s neck and neck with Biden, including in the swing states. I’m confident Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will win in the end, because it’s a race between democracy and fascism, not just Dem vs. GOP. But let’s take this threat seriously and give generously:

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