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Opinion: Short humanitarian pause? Yes. Permanent ceasefire in Gaza now? No. [1]

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Date: 2023-11-02

I’m certain many comments will be inflammatory, and yet I see many calls online, both here and on social media, calling for an immediate, lasting ceasefire between Israel and Hamas-controlled Gaza, that I felt a certain need to write this diary.



I want to explain, from my perspective as an American-Israeli, with family in Israel, why the time is not yet ripe for a permanent ceasefire. A pause for humanitarian relief, sure (and even then, Israel would rightfully want to make sure Hamas is given minimal time to regroup). But a permanent ceasefire? Absolutely not. Why? Well...



First, Hamas has not released the (civilian) hostages they have kidnapped on October 7th. I make the distinction between civilians and soldiers although I firmly believe that all hostages should be released — because I also realize this is a conflict between two sides (no matter how right or wrong), and soldiers/militants/terrorists are generally considered “fair game”.



Second, and probably the most important point, I think many people here fail to realize just how jarring and dangerous October 7th was for Israelis and Israel. Beyond the previously discussed shock, there is a critical strategic, existential issue at the heart of Israel’s offensive in Gaza to remove Hamas. Hamas struck a huge, successful blow against Israel and its IDF. It breached the sophisticated border defenses, attacked military bases and civilian communities, killed over a thousand and kidnapped over two hundred.



Many Israelis, my parents included, feel unsafe. This is a similar feeling, I would imagine from what they tell me, that many Israelis felt in the immediate days after the start of the Yom Kippur War. That war, also an existential threat to Israel, eventually led to peace with Egypt since both sides came away from that war feeling “victorious” — and maybe, maybe, maybe this might too — but the onus would be on both sides having leaders willing to make sacrifices. Even if that is possible in the future (big if), it also depends on Israel salvaging itself into a situation where it can come out feeling “victorious” after a vicious blow to start this ongoing war. During the Yom Kippur War, Israel managed to push to within 100km of Cairo, and to the outskirts of Damascus (32km away), before a ceasefire went into effect.



Unless something is fundamentally changed in Gaza — Hamas taken out, a buffer zone, UN peacekeeping — something substantial — Israelis will not be able to feel “victorious”. Israelis will not return to live near Gaza. Critically, people in Northern Israel, on the border with Syria and Lebanon, now look apprehensively at Israel’s northern neighbors. Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran-backed militias in Syria have already shown signs of testing Israeli defenses, and Israel has evacuated citizens that live closer than 2km from the border of Lebanon as a precaution. Iran is watching closely. Israel agreeing to a ceasefire will only embolden all the parties responsible.



Hamas would pat itself on the back and use the hostages to free thousands of convicted terrorists from Israeli jail (Gilad Shalit was swapped for 1,000 Palestinians), money will pour into Gaza which will be rebuilt, Hamas will funnel off a lot of that money, along with smuggling supplies into Gaza, and rebuild its arsenal of weapons and tunnels. It will get ready for the next assault on Israel, as promised by their spokesperson.



Hezbollah will see what a successful attack was carried by Hamas, and will certainly try, at a point in time in the future, to repeat. Iran will be encouraged to continue their calls for Israel’s destruction, emboldened by the initial Hamas attack and the (relatively) minor damage afflicted on Hamas (not to say that the damage to Gaza itself is minor, but most Hamas military leaders are still alive and well, and Hamas will still be in control of the Gaza Strip if a ceasefire was to take effect now).



This leads me to my third point. The time is not ripe for a permanent ceasefire because Hamas is still the governing entity in Gaza. Israel does not want a ceasefire until it has effectively removed Hamas from power in Gaza. This means removing its military infrastructure (by clearing and blocking the tunnels, removing rockets and other military equipment, etc., and, yes, finding and arresting/killing as many Hamas militants/terrorists as they can) and making sure they are not capable of remaining a political player in the Gaza Strip.



Until this happens, or until there are tangible and concrete assurances from the world (and even a UN peacekeeping force requires work, seeing as UNIFIL’s failures in Lebanon contributed to the 2006 war between Lebanon/Hizbollah and Israel), Israel will not want to stop until it dismantles Hamas governing and military capabilities.



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And please, I’m sure we will argue and discuss and possibly fight — let’s try to be civil. And I ask folks on the pro-permanent-ceasefire camp to present good-faith arguments to help with solving these above points



(example of a bad-faith argument: Palestinians feel unsafe too, what about them? Yes, I’m sure they do. I would not want to be in their shoes right now. They should feel safe and have peace and freedom).



(example of a bad-faith argument: Since when do we approve of war? We do not. But war is happening now. And sometimes, even if we do not approve, it is necessary. Not because I say so, but because one side or both sides do. And to facilitate a cease-fire, we must do more than say “we don’t like war”).

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