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NV-Sen: NRSC Poll Has Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) Beating Sam Brown 45-40 [1]

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Date: 2023-11-02

Here’s some encouraging news today out of Nevada:

A new poll of likely Nevada voters commissioned by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) shows Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) narrowly leading potential Republican challenger Sam Brown ahead of her 2024 re-election bid.

In a hypothetical ballot, 45 percent of respondents said they planned to vote for Rosen while 40 percent chose Brown. Ten percent remained undecided, while 5 percent selected none of the above.

The poll, which was reviewed by The Nevada Independent, was conducted by the Tarrance Group, a Republican firm that did polling for Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo’s 2022 election, from Oct. 23 to 26 and has a margin of error of 4.1 percent. It overrepresented voters with a college degree relative to the population of Nevada, but pollsters said the sample’s demographics fell within the norm of its polling over the last several years, including surveys for Lombardo. Poll respondents were 32 percent registered Democrats, 30 percent registered Republicans, and 33 percent independents; through the end of September, Democrats made up over 31 percent of active voters in the state, Republicans represented nearly 29 percent, and nonpartisans at 32 percent.

The poll found Brown — a retired Army captain who was nearly killed and severely burned by a roadside bomb in Afghanistan in 2008 — leads the Republican primary field, though he fell short of majority support. A significant bloc of primary voters remain undecided, the poll found.

The NRSC is backing Brown in the primary, having recruited him to run as part of a strategy to field more competitive candidates after they failed to take the Senate in 2022. Brown previously ran for Senate last cycle, but lost in the primary to eventual nominee Adam Laxalt, and made an unsuccessful bid for a seat in the Texas Legislature in 2014.

Among registered Republicans polled, 24 percent indicated they would vote for Brown if the primary was held today. Former assemblyman and secretary of state candidate Jim Marchant, a prominent election denier, was second at 9 percent. Air Force veteran Tony Grady was third at 5 percent, and former ambassador to Iceland Jeffrey Gunter only garnered 1 percent support.

But a full 41 percent of respondents remain undecided, with just over seven months until the Senate primary in June.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/11/2/2203215/-NV-Sen-NRSC-Poll-Has-Sen-Jacky-Rosen-D-Beating-Sam-Brown-45-40?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web

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