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Israel-Palestine Explainer: Why Achieving Peace is so Hard v2.0 [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-11-02

*** Author’s note: A shorter version of this diary was published on Oct 28th. Based on the comments received (mostly positive) it has been heavily revised and expanded into a full Daily Kos “Explainer” to provide more context and background. ***

There’s been much talk on which side is to blame for the current Israel-Palestine conflict and many opinions on how to achieve peace. The purpose of this diary is not to assign blame or list all the legitimate grievances each side has. There’s more than enough blame to share, and the list of grievance each side harbors is centuries long. This diary focuses on why prior peace proposals failed. Just because there’s no simple solution doesn’t mean there is no solution, but let’s be aware of the challenges to be overcome.

The Two-State Solution

The most frequently discussed peace proposal is the two-state solution. It is the supported position of the UN, the US, the UK, and many other countries. It would create an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel, with both nations having their own territory and sovereignty. President Biden recently expressed his support for this approach “when this (current) crisis is over”. For now, all reconciliation talks are on hold. However, there are several prerequisites necessary before a two-state solution is possible:

The political will and leadership of both sides to engage in serious and credible negotiations based on mutual recognition, respect, and compromise.

The support and pressure from regional and international actors to facilitate the implementation of a fair and lasting agreement.

The involvement of civil society actors and public opinion to create a culture for peace and coexistence between Israelis and Palestinians.

All three factors must be in place simultaneously for peace to succeed. The 1993 Oslo I Accord is arguably the closest the Palestinians and Israelis have ever come to achieving peace. It recognized Israel’s right to exist and the PLO as the representative of the Palestinian people. It also outlined a plan for Palestinian self-governance in parts of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip through the creation of the Palestinian Authority (PA). This was followed by the 1995 Oslo II Accord which dealt with issues such as water, economic cooperation, elections, human rights, borders and security cooperation. The fact that Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat were able to agree on these issues demonstrated their willingness to compromise and negotiate. The US agreed to provided the support required to monitor the implementation. Unfortunately, the culture for peace and coexistence was lacking on both sides. (e.g. Israel’s expansion of settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem reduced the land available for a Palestinian state; Hamas opposing the peace process by carrying out suicide bombings and rocket attacks).

Since the collapse of the Oslo Accords, things have become even more complex with multiple obstacles to overcome:

The continued expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem makes it difficult to create a contiguous and viable Palestinian state.

At the end of 2021 there were 465,400 Israeli settlers living in the West Bank, up from 116,300 when the Oslo accords were signed in 1993

The fragmentation of the Palestinian political leadership undermines their legitimacy and ability to negotiate with Israel as a unified representative of the Palestinian people.

The lack of trust and good will between the two sides, exacerbated by recurrent cycles of violence, terrorism, and military operations.

The changing political and social realities on the ground, such as the growing demographic and economic disparities between Israel and the occupied territories,

The increasing influence of religious and nationalist ideologies on both sides.

The shifting regional and global dynamics of external actors.

In the 90’s the US was the sole superpower in the region. Now the influence of Iran, Russia, and Saudi Arabia (among others) play into the peace process. Some of these foreign actors believe it is in their best interest to prevent peace. Even if the US could impose a peace (and that’s a big if), this would not result in a lasting peace.

The One-State Solution

The One-State solution involves creating a single democratic state for both Israelis and Palestinians, with equal rights and representation for all citizens. This would remove the issue of borders, but has the same remaining fracture lines as the two-state model, plus the added demographic issues and security concerns that makes it unacceptable to Israel.

Change of Leadership

Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu isn’t anyone’s idea of an ideal peace negotiator and Hamas’ stated goal is the elimination of Israel. That is not a promising start for “serious negotiations based on mutual recognition, respect, and compromise.“ However, hoping for more moderate leadership isn’t a peace plan. At best it is an acknowledgement of the futility of peace negotiations with the current leadership.

The Likud party is part of the current Israel coalition government led by Netanyahu, which also includes other right-wing and religious parties. The Likud party is opposed to the establishment of a Palestinian state and supports the expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories. The point here isn’t that Netanyahu needs to be replaced, or all of the Likud party voted out of office (albeit that may be a prerequisite for meaningful peace talks). Rather, it acknowledges that Likud has won multiple elections since the Oslo Accords collapsed. A sizable portion of the voting public in Israel supports their objectives. Removing Netanyahu (and all of Likud) would only result in another party with similar objectives taking its place.

Yitzhak Rabin and Yasser Arafat were moderates and statesmen with the wisdom to forge the Oslo peace plan. Twenty years later there’s still much regret over the “if only’s”. (e.g. If only Arafat hadn’t “thrown away” the opportunity for peace. If only Rabin hadn’t been assassinated by an Israeli extremist). This is a misreading of history. The peace talks failed because there was a lack of government and public support for the necessary sacrifices required from both sides. One major stumbling block was agreement on borders of the new Palestinian state; another was on the free flow of goods and people between the West Bank and Gaza. Today these issues are even more complex, with less willingness to compromise. Change the leadership and the same structural and societal issues will still persist.

The two-state solution is the only framework that has any chance of success. However the public support for this solution on both sides is even less then when the Oslo accords were signed in 1993.

Ordinary people on both sides have lost faith in the two-state solution. A poll in September 2022 by the Israel Democracy Institute, a non-partisan think-tank, found that only 32%of Israeli Jews would support one, down from 47% five years earlier. Israeli Arabs, who make up one-fifth of the population, still endorsed the idea, although their support has also dropped, from 87% in 2017 to 71% in 2022. A plurality of Israeli Jews preferred the status quo. Support has plummeted even further among Palestinians. A survey in June 2023 by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research found that just 28% still support a two-state solution. Some 53% of them backed the idea ten years ago, though just 39% thought it feasible. The Economist

Annihilate The Other Side

You may think including Annihilation as a peace plan is crazy. You would be correct. Unfortunately, it is the plan that both Israel and Hamas are currently using. If both sides see that negotiations are futile, and their minimal requirements will never be met, repetitive wars are inevitable. This is not to justify the current Gaza war; far from it. War is never the road to a just and lasting peace. Since the peace process broke down in 2000, there have been four wars, not including the current "Operation Guardian of the Walls". This war too will fail, and both sides know it. The idea that wiping out Hamas will lead to peace is faulty reasoning. Even if it were possible to eliminate 100% of Hamas leadership, and do so with zero civilian casualties, it would still fail. If every tunnel was blown up, every bomb and missile factory destroyed, it would still fail. Hamas is not only an organization, it is also a belief (“From the river to the sea…”). Destroy Hamas and another organization will take its place. Likewise, Hamas hope of eliminating Israel is wishful thinking and not a realistic strategy. The only thing war will accomplish is death, displacement and destruction. It will ensure generational hatred between Israelis and Palestinians.

Conclusions

The beginning of a just peace is not through war, but by creating a culture of peace and coexistence. That is a long & hard road and must be implemented at every strata of society. Despite the challenges, is it still possible to achieve a settlement that respects the rights and aspirations of both peoples? Moderate voices support dialogue and cooperation across the divide. A just peace has the potential benefits of security, stability, development, and human dignity. The status quo of perpetual conflict does not benefit either side. Is it possible sheer self-interest could spark a renewed interest in an Oslo-like agreement? Unfortunately, recent events have pushed the required trust and willingness to compromise to an all time low.

Hopefully this diary has given some context for why peace has been so difficult to achieve. There are no simple answers. To say that peace could have been achieved if only Israel had done this or Palestinians that, underestimates the complexity of the situation. Peace will only come when both sides are willing to make the major sacrifices involved. That time is not now. I wish it were different, but see only blood and tears for the foreseeable future.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/11/2/2203130/-Israel-Palestine-Explainer-Why-Achieving-Peace-is-so-Hard-v2-0?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web

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