(C) Daily Kos
This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered.
. . . . . . . . . .



Michigan State House Districts (2024): HD 86, HD 88, HD 103, HD 109 [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-09-26

Today, I will look at four more Michigan house districts: HD 86, HD 88, HD 103, and HD 109, all of which are located on the state’s western border along Lake Michigan, with the exception of HD 109, which is in the state’s upper peninsula.

Michigan House District 86

MI HD 86 encompasses parts of Allegan and Ottawa counties and contains the community of Holland. HD 86 overlaps the pre-2022 iterations of HD 80, HD 89, and HD 90, all of which were solidly Republican districts that supported Donald Trump by double digits in 2020. HD 86, by contrast, is highly competitive at the presidential level, as it would have just narrowly supported Trump by less than half a percentage point in 2020. In addition, the trends have been highly favorable for Democrats, with all the district’s precincts having swung to the left (at the presidential level) between 2016 and 2020 and by double-digit margins in many cases. However, the 2022 state house race for HD 86 was not especially close, with Republican Nancy De Boer winning the open seat by between 12 and 13 points. It should be noted, though, that the Democratic candidate, Larry Jackson, had been previously charged with various crimes and had posted derogatory and lewd social media content several years back. (As previous posted, a somewhat similar situation occurred in HD 46, though unlike in HD 86, that 2022 house race still ended up in single digits.) It seems reasonable to expect a considerably more competitive house race this cycle, given that De Boer will be (presumably) facing an opponent who isn’t scandal plagued and that the trends are promising for Dems. I’m classifying HD 86 as Lean Republican but could see potentially shifting it to Toss Up if Dems nominate a really strong candidate.

Michigan House District 88

MI HD 88 contains parts of Ottawa and Muskegon counties, such as Grand Haven and Norton Shores, respectively. HD 88 has considerable overlap with the pre-2022 iteration of HD 89, which was briefly discussed in the paragraph above. As previously mentioned, HD 89 was a solidly Republican district, though it did move several points to the left at the presidential level in recent years, having gone from supporting Mitt Romney by about 24 points to supporting Trump by a slightly narrower margin of about 21.5 points in 2016 and an even narrower 14-point margin in 2020. None of the state house races for HD 89 of the past decade were competitive, with Republicans winning all of them by at least 20 points and with over 60% of the vote. HD 88 is several points bluer than HD 89, with Trump’s 2020 margin shrinking to about 9 points in the former district. Republican incumbent Greg VanWoerkom, who had been representing the pre-2022 iteration of HD 91 (directly north of HD 89), held onto HD 88 in 2022, winning the district by a comfortable margin of between 14 and 15 points. The GOP should be heavily favored here, but the district is still worth keeping an eye on, given the favorable trends for Democrats. I’m classifying HD 88 as Likely Republican.

Michigan House District 103

MI HD 103 is located on the Grand Traverse Bay and encompasses parts of Benzie and Traverse counties, including Traverse City, and the entirety of Leelanau County. HD 103 overlaps the pre-2022 iterations of HD 104 and HD 101. HD 104 was a traditionally Republican-leaning district that swung a good deal to the left at the presidential level in 2020, with Trump just narrowly carrying the district by 3 points, after having won it four years earlier by about 12.5 points, which is also similar to Romney’s performance in the district. Overall, HD 104 was more competitive at the state house level. While the 2012 house race was not especially close, with the Republican incumbent winning about 12 points, the 2014 house race was fairly competitive, with Republican Larry Inman winning the open seat by just over 6 points. Inman was reelected in 2016 by a slightly larger margin of just over 8 points, but with under 52% of the raw vote (as there was a Libertarian on the ballot), and by a razor-thin margin of less than a percentage point in 2018. The 2020 state house race was also close, with Republican John Roth winning the open seat by just under 4 points, barely running ahead of Trump. (Note that Dan O’Neil was the Democratic challenger in both 2018 and 2020.) The trends in HD 101, on the other hand, were less favorable to Democrats, as the district went from just narrowly supporting Romney by about 2.5 points to supporting Trump by a larger margin of about 13.5 points in 2016 and by between 9 and 10 points in 2018. HD 101 featured very close state house races in 2012 and 2014, with Republican incumbent Ray Franz winning the former by 2 points and the latter by less than a percentage point. Republican Curt VanderWall won the open seat in 2016 by a reasonably competitive 8-point margin (running behind Trump), but the subsequent house races were not competitive at all, with Republican Jack O’Malley easily winning the open seat in 2018 by between 15 and 16 points and being reelected by an even larger margin of about 21 points in 2020. HD 103 is a few points bluer than HD 104 (and thus a lot bluer than HD 101), as Biden would have carried the former district by a little less than 5 points. In 2022, Democrat Betsy Coffia, who was the Dem challenger for HD 104 in 2012, 2014, and 2016, was able to flip the district, narrowly defeating O’Malley by between 1 and 2 points. The district should be competitive again this cycle. I’m classifying HD 103 as a Toss Up.

Michigan House District 109

MI HD 109 encompasses all of Alger, Baraga, and Marquette counties, and a portion of Dickinson County. HD 109 is very similar (both in geographic area and partisan-lean) to its pre-2022 iteration, which was competitive at the presidential level, having supported Obama by just under 8 points in 2012, Trump by about 4 points in 2016, and Biden by about a percentage point. The district was safer for Democrats at the state house level, with Democrat John Kivela easily winning the open seat by between 16 and 17 points and being reelected by larger margins of over 31 points in 2014 and 28 points in 2016. Kivela committed suicide in 2017, prompting a special election, which Democrat Sara Cambensy won by a little less than 15 points. Cambensy was reelected by just over 16 points in 2018 and by 14.5 points in 2020. The 2022 redistricting made HD 109 very slightly bluer, with Biden’s margin expanding to just under 2 points. The 2022 state house race was reasonably close (unlike the district’s previous house races), with Democrat Jenn Hill, who faced the same Republican opponent that Cambensy faced in 2018 and 2020, winning the open seat by about 6 points. Hill should have an edge as the incumbent, but it seems reasonable to expect a competitive race, especially given how close the recent presidential results have been in the district. I’m classifying HD 109 as Lean Democrat.

Thanks to cnalysis (for the 2020 presidential results of the new districts), Daily Kos Elections (for the presidential results of the old districts), and New York Times (for precinct-level data).

[END]
---
[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/26/2195518/-Michigan-State-House-Districts-2024-HD-86-HD-88-HD-103-HD-109

Published and (C) by Daily Kos
Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified.

via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/

You are viewing proxied material from magical.fish. The copyright of proxied material belongs to its original authors. Any comments or complaints in relation to proxied material should be directed to the original authors of the content concerned. Please see the disclaimer for more details.