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Ukraine: With decreasing Russian reserves, the Dnipro crossing en masse becomes more plausible [1]

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Date: 2023-09-24

At various points in the past people have gotten excited regarding the possibility of Ukraine surprising Russia with a Dnipro crossing in force somewhere near Kherson. For quite a while now Ukraine has been launching small raiding forces across the river to temporarily take positions, force the Russians to commit troops to the area, then withdraw before the Russians could trap them. The hope by some is these minor river crossings are a prelude to something bigger. But it’s never been a real threat to Russia.

The general problem with a large Ukrainian force crossing the Dnipro is that even if they could force a crossing, secure a bridgehead and get a pontoon bridge set up, the Ukrainian forces on the left bank (the south eastern side) would always be limited in size by the amount of supplies that could cross one or two pontoon bridges. And those forces would always be at risk of being cut off if the Russians blew those bridges. Risking a lot of troops across the river with a precarious supply situation could be a recipe for disaster. And because the number of troops Ukraine could safely put across would always be limited by that supply, Russia would be able to assemble a larger force than Ukraine could field and then eliminate the Ukrainian force. So it never really made sense to me, I pretty much always poo-pooed it when folks brought it up, and Ukraine never attempted anything large.

But things are much different now IF reports of declining Russian reserves are accurate. As more and more Russian units are stripped off the line in various places to plug the hole NE of Tokmak, Russia loses the ability to respond to other threats along the line. If Russian forces get thin enough that they essentially end up with no reserve, then a crossing of the Dnipro by Ukraine could be backbreaking. If the Ukrainians moved quickly and decisively to secure a bridgehead, then the defensive advantage of the river would be negated. The only limit for Ukraine would be the size of the force they could sustain across the river. But if Russia has not enough reserves to respond to a successful crossing and can’t summon a large enough force, then the Ukrainian supply funnel becomes less decisive.

But why attempt the Dnipro and not some other spot with no river to cross? Well, those of us in the cheap seats won’t ever truly know until well after the fact. But the following things come into play. We know on the Eastern and North Eastern parts of the line the Russians have large minefields and obstacles. While those obstacles are less threatening with too few troops to back them up, they would still slow a Ukrainian push. The obstacles along the Dnipro were all flooded. While Russia will have certainly tried to replace what they could, it sounds like they have used up most of their stock of landmines.

Further the Russian troops along the Dnipro have never had to be there in large enough amounts to stop a crossing. They’ve only had to be in sufficient quantities to delay the Ukrainians long enough to move reserves over. Once reserves arrived, THEN they could push the Ukrainians back into the river. But if there are not enough significant reserves left, the Dnipro may have both the weakest obstacles and the fewest troops. IF that is the case, the best place for Ukraine to achieve a breakthrough would be there. That’s even without accounting for depleted Russian artillery and improved Ukrainian air defense.

It’s just 80 km from Kherson to the start of the Crimean isthmus. And the western side near Krasnoperekopsk on the map above is the important side. The eastern side is only connected by bridges which have already been hit a few times by Ukraine. They would definitely be taken out in a Dnipro crossing scenario. Ukraine could race and beat the Russians to the isthmus cutting off the Russians around Tokmak from supply from Crimea. That could be enough to collapse the Melitopol/Tokmak area. All Russian supply would have to come from Berdiansk and/or the coastal highway from the east. A Ukrainian thrust toward the Azov would threaten an effective encirclement.

And if Ukraine got really lucky and the Russians pulled enough troops out of Crimea to shore up Tokmak, the isthmus may not even be fully defended allowing the Ukrainians to take Crimea more easily than many suspect. Now this scenario is only possible if Russia has pulled too many troops out of the Kherson area and its reserves are sufficiently low. There is no guarantee that has happened. But it is something to watch for.

And that exciting what-if scenario will probably be my second to last, at least for a while. Come October, I’m switching the focus of my writing to Climate Change. The Ukraine beat is well covered here on Daily Kos and it’s time I spent more of my energies writing about climate. You will be in good hands without me. That won’t mean I might not pop back over should I feel the need/desire but you should not expect anything from me after next week’s final article. Next week I’ll be doing a cross-over article entitled “Ukraine and Climate: The Ring must be destroyed or the War is in vain.” I will also certainly do an article when the war ends, and hopefully that day comes soon. I still see a 20% chance of the war ending in 2023, but odds are it goes at least until 2024.

I thought it fitting to end this article with reposting the text of my first ever Ukraine article first published February 24th 2022, the first night of the major escalation.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/24/2195133/-Ukraine-With-decreasing-Russian-reserves-the-Dnipro-crossing-en-masse-becomes-more-plausible

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