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Poll: Trump conviction would cost him 4 percentage points against Biden [1]

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Date: 2023-09-21

Was looking through the latest polls on 538 and came across this new one today. Had never heard of this polling firm before (at least, not that I can recall) but it showed Biden ahead by 2, and just for the heck of it I clicked on the link to the poll results on the 538 page.

In addition to the standard result, it also gave a result I found interesting, and don’t think I’d seen before. It’s on page 2:

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…

While Biden had a 2-point lead under “normal” circumstances, the poll also asked how they would vote if Trump were convicted on at least 1 count he’s being charged with. In that case he would lose some support among the GOP and independents, and Biden’s lead would grow to 6 points.

I’m honestly not sure what to make of that. It’s simultaneously mind-boggling while not being terribly surprising that 39% of the electorate would still vote for Trump even if he were a convicted felon. I wonder if being found guilty on, say, 50 counts would magnify the effect? Or would 50 guilty counts have the same effect as 1 guilty count?

The other mind-boggling (but again, not surprising) thing is that there is 4 percent of the population so tuned out from reality that they don’t realize Trump has so many counts charged against them that there an almost zero chance he’s going to be acquitted on all of them (note: the 39% of voters who will vote for Trump regardless don’t count, they are beyond hope).

Anyway, on page 3 is some good news for democrats: If (when!) Trump is convicted, a sizeable portion of the potential electorate will sit out the election — and essentially all of those are erstwhile Trump and republican voters! Also, if Trump is nominated, democrats will be far more motivated to vote than they would be otherwise. Donald Trump could very well be the best thing to happen to democrats in a long, long while.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/21/2194703/-Poll-Trump-conviction-would-cost-him-4-percentage-points-against-Biden

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