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Michigan State House Districts (2024): HD 46, HD 48, HD 49, HD 92, HD 96 [1]

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Date: 2023-09-21

Today, I am looking at five Michigan house districts: HD 46, HD 48, HD 49, HD 92, and HD 96. The former three districts are all located near Ann Arbor, with HDs 46 and 48 covering parts of Washtenaw County (home to Ann Arbor) and Jackson County (located directly west of Ann Arbor).

Michigan House District 46

MI HD 46 contains communities such as Jackson, Leoni, and Sylvan Township. HD 46 overlaps the pre-2022 iterations of HD 64, HD 65, and HD 52. HD 64 and HD 65 were both heavily Republican districts that supported Donald Trump by double-digit margins in 2016 and 2020 after Mitt Romney had carried them by single digits in 2012, indicating favorable trends for the GOP. None of the state house races from the last decade were competitive for either district, with Republicans winning all of them by double digits. HD 52, on the other hand, was a heavily Democratic district and swung to the left in recent years, having gone from supporting Barack Obama by a fairy close 4-point margin in 2012 to supporting Hillary Clinton by a larger 9-point margin to easily supporting Joe Biden by a decent 17-point margin. The 2016 house race was somewhat competitive, with Democrat Donna Lasinski winning the open seat by less than 8 points, though there was a Green Party candidate on the ballot who received nearly 3% of the vote. However, the subsequent house races were not competitive at all, with Lasinski easily winning reelection by at least 19 points in 2018 and 2020. Partisan-wise, HD 46 is in-between (redder than HD 52, but bluer than HDs 64 and 65), and was extremely close at the presidential level in 2020, with Trump carrying it by a razor-thin margin of less than a quarter of a percentage point. Republican Kathy Schmaltz won the open race for HD 46 in 2022 by about 9 points, running several points ahead of Trump’s 2020 margin, though it should be pointed out that the Democratic candidate, Maurice Imhoff, had been accused of previously threatening schools and assaulting a police officer. (Note at one point in the cycle, Imhoff unofficially withdrew from the race, though he did restart his campaign a few weeks later.) Given Imhoff’s scandals, it’s impressive that the race was as close as it was. (Straight-ticket voting being an option in MI probably helped.) It seems reasonable to expect a more competitive state house race this cycle, given that Schmaltz will be facing a (presumably) non-scandal plagued opponent. I’m classifying HD 46 as a Toss Up.

Michigan House District 48

MI HD 48 contains the communities of Waterloo Village and Genoa Township, which is based in Livingston County. HD 48 has considerable overlap with several pre-2022 districts, most notably HD 42 and the previously mentioned HD 52. Unlike HD 52, HD 42 was a solidly Republican district, having supported Trump by nearly 16 points in 2020 (and having gone for him in 2016 by an even greater margin). None of the recent state house races for HD 42 were competitive, with the GOP winning all of them by at least 20 points. Unsurprisingly, HD 48 is in-between HD 52 and HD 42, partisan-wise, as it would have supported Biden by a fairly close margin of between 5 and 6 points. The 2022 state house race for HD 48 was also competitive, with Democrat Jennifer Conlin winning the open seat by just over 7 points, running slightly ahead of Biden. Conlin should be favored this cycle, especially given that she will be an incumbent this time, but it seems reasonable to expect a competitive race. I’m classifying HD 48 as Lean Democrat.

Michigan House District 49

MI HD 49 encompasses the eastern end of Livingston County, including the community of Brighton Township, as well as western Oakland County, such as Wixom. HD 49 has considerable overlap with the pre-2022 iterations of HD 42, which was covered in the paragraph above, and HD 38, which was traditionally somewhat Republican leaning but had swung to the left in recent years, having gone from supporting Romney by nearly 8 points to supporting Trump by a narrower margin of under 4 points in 2016 to supporting Biden by about 6 points. Prior to 2018, none of the state house races for HD 38 were at all competitive, with Republican incumbent Kathy Crawford easily winning by over 15 points in 2016, having first won the seat by an even larger 25-point margin in 2014. However, the 2018 house race was quite competitive, with Crawford just narrowly being reelected by between 1 and 2 points, and with under 50% of the vote as there was a Libertarian on the ballot. Democrat Kelly Breen was able to flip the seat in 2020, narrowly winning the open race by just over 3 points. Unsurprisingly, HD 49 is redder than HD 48, but bluer than HD 38, as it would have supported Trump by nearly 8 points in 2020. Republican Ann Bollin, who had been representing HD 42, held onto HD 49 in 2022, winning reelection by between 11 and 12 points. Bollin should be heavily favored, but the district is worth keeping an eye on, given the somewhat close 2020 presidential result and the fairly decent trends for Dems. I’m classifying HD 49 as Likely Republican.

Michigan House District 92

MI HD 92 encompasses all of Isabella County, home to the city of Mount Pleasant, as well as parts of Gratiot County, including the community of Alma. HD 92 has quite a bit of overlap with the pre-2022 iteration of HD 99, which was quite close at the presidential level in 2012, as it narrowly supported Obama by just under 3 points, but had since moved to the right, with Trump carrying the seat by about 12 points in both 2016 and 2020. Republican incumbent Kevin Cotter easily held onto HD 99 by a double-digit margin in 2012, but had a much closer race in 2014, which he won by just 3 points. The two subsequent state house races were also competitive to some degree, with Republican Roger Hauck winning the open seat by a somewhat competitive 9-point margin in 2016 and being reelected by a closer margin of just under 7 points in 2018. However, the 2020 house race was not close at all, with Hauck winning reelection by between 24 and 25 points, with about 61% of the raw vote. HD 92 is slightly bluer than HD 99, with Trump’s 2020 margin shrinking to a little less than 8 points in the former district. Republican Jerry Neyer held onto HD 92 fairly easily in 2022, winning the open seat by about 13 points. Neyer should be heavily favored, but the district does have the potential to be competitive, given the moderately close 2020 presidential result and that region has seen competitive house races in the past. I’m classifying HD 92 as Likely Republican.

Michigan House District 96

MI HD 96 is based in Bay County and is home to Bay City. HD 96 is very similar to its pre-2022 iteration, which swung very heavily to right at the presidential level in recent years, having gone from supporting Obama by between 8 and 9 points in 2012 to supporting Trump by a similar margin in 2016 and by a slightly narrower margin of between 6 and 7 points in 2020. Despite Trump’s fairly decent performance, Democrat Brian Elder easily held onto the district in 2016, winning the open race by 16 points, though this is a considerable reduction from the previous Dem incumbent’s 39-point margins of victories in 2012 and 2014. Elder was reelected by about 12 points in 2018. However, Republican Timothy Beson flipped the district in 2020, as he defeated Elder by nearly 9 points, interestingly enough, outrunning Trump. The 2022 redistricting made HD 96 a few points redder, with Trump’s 2020 margin expanding to nearly 9 points. In 2022, Beson was reelected by a little less than 11 points, a slight improvement over his 2020 performance, which isn’t too surprising. Beson should be fairly safe, but the district still warrants notice, given its ancestral Democratic nature. I’m classifying HD 96 as Likely Republican.

Thanks to cnalysis (for the 2020 presidential results of the new districts) and Daily Kos Elections (for the presidential results of the old districts).

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/21/2194583/-Michigan-State-House-District-2024-HD-46-HD-48-HD-49-HD-92-HD-96

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