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What's at stake this Fall: Ohio, Virginia, Reproductive Freedom and the Runup to 2024 [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2023-09-20
While we are all looking ahead to 2024, amidst of all the usual handwringing, Hope Springs from Field PAC is plodding away, preparing the electoral battleground for 2024 while completing our grassroots-driven priorities for 2023. Outside of special elections, all of which Democrats won (where Hope Springs volunteers were involved, including the one in Pennsylvania yesterday), those priorities have been Virginia, Ohio and getting voters free photo IDs where they have been mandated. Not only does 2023 lead into 2024 but these priorities set the foundation for the elections of 2024.
But we are learning a lot about the messaging that is working with suburban voters in swingy areas right now. It centers around the definition of Freedom. Hope Springs volunteers have found in both Ohio and Virginia that Republicans and Democrats mean different things when they use the word freedom. And this difference needs to be pointed out to independent and/or unaffiliated voters so they understand what they are voting for or choosing in their votes.
It seems so simple. But what we are hearing at the doors is that when Republicans use the term “freedom” they generally mean conformity, and conformity to *their* views on the subject. (It seems they use the term “patriot” or “patriotism” to mean the same thing.) Democrats, on the other hand, define freedom as freedom to choose for yourself. That freedom means free. It doesn’t seem to matter if you are talking about Reproductive Freedom or Education (or parental rights). Or, as one volunteer put it, “Republicans are using the term (freedom) to deny the rest of us freedom, as if their view is superior to our’s.”
Arming our volunteers with this contrast has been effective in both Ohio and Virginia (as well as our GOTV efforts in the Pennsylvania special elections), giving us an effective response when we meet voters who want to talk about abortion or parental rights. One volunteer said that this contrast will keep him from comparing what the Republicans are doing to what the Nazis did and their use of propaganda. Yeah, we don’t want to do that.
But our Fall efforts are more than just about messaging. As i keep repeating everywhere i go, what Hope Springs from Field volunteers are doing is what we weren’t able to do in 2020 because Democrats held a responsible position about volunteer and voter safety in the midst of a global pandemic: direct and personal voter contact, early organizing and GOTV. People keep thinking 2024 will be a re-run of 2020 and it won’t be. Not even close. In 2020, Republicans, the Trump campaign and conservative orgs ramped up their direct voter contact efforts. The Trump campaign tried to replicate what Obama had done, while Democrats effectively pulled back from their presidential cycle voter-registration efforts as well as direct voter contact canvassing. That won’t happen in 2024. Even with the persistent threat of covid, Democrats will return to the aggressive voter registration, election protection and voter contact efforts of the Obama years. *Our* voters and volunteers are vaxxed, so the threat to either in terms of covid are minimized.
Still, it is important to remember that while Democratic campaigns and progressive orgs return to their traditional strengths in voter contact, we still face a nationalized political environment. Politics isn’t primarily local now. All campaigns are nationalized now. We saw this in yesterday’s special election in Pennsylvania’s 21st House District. The Democratic candidate, Lindsay Powell, benefitted from her experience as a Congressional staffer in talking to voters about Reproductive Rights, Jobs for the Alleghany region as well as local concerns. Powell was especially appreciative of the constituent concerns that Hope Springs volunteers collected in our Constituent Request Forms and even used examples from these in talking to voters.
Hope Springs from Field PAC has been knocking on doors since March in a grassroots effort to prepare the 2024 Electoral Battleground in what has been called the First and Second Rounds of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are canvassing Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization
Hope Springs from Field understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do.
Our volunteers, in all 11 Swing States where we have knocked on doors this year, understand what is at stake in 2023. Even the Wall Street Journal, the mouthpiece of American business, understands: “The Most Important Elections of 2023 Will Test Purple-State Voters.” Just like the sweep of competitive special elections earlier:
Virginia voters’ choices this November will give crucial clues about the direction of the national elections next November, and about the political future of a rising Republican star: Gov. Glenn Youngkin. Control of the state legislature is at stake, with all 140 seats in both chambers up for grabs. Democrats hold a slim majority in the Senate, Republicans have an edge in the House. Youngkin, while not on the ballot, is pushing hard for a GOP trifecta so he can pass a 15-week abortion limit and other conservative priorities—and so he can burnish his reputation as a Republican who can win in swing territory after his 2021 victory put him on the national map. [...] Dominance in the state’s General Assembly likely will hinge on a handful of races. The nonpartisan Virginia Public Access Project rates four of 40 Senate races and seven of 100 House contests as competitive. Virginia’s odd-year elections traditionally offer clues about the electorate’s mood heading into national contests. The state used to lean Republican, but suburban growth, especially around Washington, has benefited the Democratic Party, which in 2019 won majorities in both houses for the first time since the 1990s. Republicans in 2021 captured the governorship and took back the House; Virginia is now one of just two states where each party controls one legislative chamber.
We have long understood that these off-off year elections provide “clues about what to expect in 2024:”
But before Iowa Republicans start lining up to caucus in January, voters across the country will send some major signals about what to expect in 2024 in a bevy of state and local elections. There’s a lot of time for polling numbers and fundamentals to shift before November 2024. But who turns out to vote, which issues get big play and especially who voters pick in the biggest elections of 2023 could tell us a lot about the political state of the nation heading into next year. Here's a rundown of what to watch for in the next few months as voters in several states select governors and state legislators, and cast ballots in a few important but more esoteric contests, too. Virginia legislative elections
Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin's potential national ambitions are getting a lot of media attention, but they are closely linked to the state elections taking place this fall, halfway through Youngkin's term. Republicans are hoping to protect their majority in the state House and flip the Democratic-controlled state Senate, which would open up room for Youngkin and Republicans to pass their legislative agenda in a state that had been trending left for more than a decade. Youngkin has been campaigning around the state on his support for conservative measures, including forcing guidance on K-12 schools that limits protections for trans students and, perhaps most notably, supporting a 15-week abortion ban. The race will test how powerful abortion remains as a political issue, after backlash to the overturning of Roe v. Wade helped Democrats pull out key wins in the 2022 midterms. Both parties will be watching how candidates talk about abortion and what appeals to voters as they look toward 2024. Ohio abortion amendment election
The Ohio electorate will vote in November on an amendment that would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution — another election that will test the power of one of the top issues in national politics, and a key force in the upcoming presidential race. But the amendment's path to the ballot box has already jumped some hurdles and is set to encounter a few more. Republicans in the state — including Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who is running for Senate — have sought to make it harder for the amendment to pass. First, a Republican-backed measure to raise the threshold for passing a constitutional amendment from a simple majority to more than 60% failed in an August special election, keeping the threshold for the abortion amendment at 50% plus one. Then, the Ohio Ballot Board, led by LaRose, approved the language that voters will see on their ballots in November, which is different from the language in the actual amendment. The actual proposed amendment seeks to enshrine the right to abortion but also says that "abortion may be prohibited after fetal viability." The language approved for the ballot, however, uses the term "unborn child" and says the proposed amendment would "always allow an unborn child to be aborted at any stage of pregnancy, regardless of viability if, in the treating physician’s determination, the abortion is necessary to protect the pregnant woman’s life or health," according to the Cincinnati Enquirer.
(One of) The newspapers aimed at Congress, The Hill, notes that “Abortion battle to play out on multiple fronts in November:”
Voters will go to the polls for key elections in half a dozen states this year, but abortion rights advocates in particular are looking at votes in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Those states are already being seen as bellwethers for where the country stands on the issue heading into 2024, as Democrats hope to rally voter anger from the overturn of Roe v. Wade. The most direct vote on abortion will come in Ohio with a measure on the ballot that would protect abortion rights in the state up to the point of viability, which usually comes just past halfway through a pregnancy. But the contests in Virginia and Pennsylvania will also be seen as proxy elections for the broader battle over abortion rights.
This is why Hope Springs from Field continues to knock on doors in these states (not Virginia, we are focused on GOTV there) as well as the Senate Swing States of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Montana, Nevada and Wisconsin. Ohio and Pennsylvania have important Senate elections, too, but they also have critical 2023 races on the ballot.
If you support our grassroots efforts to register voters at their doors, strengthen voter support for Democrats, turn out voters and protect the vote, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization
Hope Springs volunteers in Ohio have already knocked on 828,214 doors this year (after 261,227 doors last year, in a last minute effort that was prompted by DKos commenters) and talked to 65,758 Ohioans using our Issues Survey as a means to develop report and support from these Democratic and independent or unaffiliated voters in suburban, swingy areas. The leaders of the constitutional amendment thing Hope Springs has the best data for modelling and GOTV in the state (on our side). Which is why we are continuing even after our weather floor gets breached.
Our out of state volunteers from Georgia and North Carolina helped train 78 Ohioan volunteers how to chase ballots for voters whose ballots contained mismatched signatures and other ballot curing tactics. This was enormously helpful, even though they were not really needed in August. But that knowledge not exists in these suburban swing areas for this Fall.
Of course, our data in Virginia is available to Democrats in Virginia, as well.
Everything we do in 2023 contributes to how President Biden and our Democratic Senate candidates will do in 2024. The systematic approach to voter contact that Hope Springs utilizes not only effectively mobilizes voters but enthuses volunteers in ways that can surprise me. Because our efforts, direction and goals are grassroots driven, as well as the training we provide volunteers before every canvass, volunteers seem to feel highly invested in what they are doing — and accomplishing. I have to say that winning all the elections we’ve been involved in this year, but especially the Jacksonville mayoral race and the Ohio amendment restriction election this summer, doesn’t hurt. Still, some of us (starting with me) are really bitter about losing the Wisconsin Senate race last year.
The work Hope Springs from Field volunteers doing in the Spring and Summer, the Early (or Deep) organizing, is all in preparation for the Fall before an election. Early Voting in Virginia begins on Friday and starts October 11 in Ohio.
We really do need financial support to continue these efforts. If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization
If you would rather send a check, you can follow that link for our mailing address, as well. Thank you for your support. This work depends on you!
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[1] Url:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/20/2193793/-What-s-at-stake-this-Fall-Ohio-Virginia-Reproductive-Freedom-and-the-Runup-to-2024
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