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Our very unusual changes in white age 25-54 state death rates from 2007 through 2017. [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-09-13

Around 2007 the private health insurance industry asked all the states to agree to their plan to systematically require prior approval by the insurance company for all major care they were to pay for before it was administered. Look at the map and get the sign, plus or minus, for your state’s number. If it is a positive, your state’s middle aged non-Hispanic white death rate has increased in the years immediately before COVID hit. If it is negative this group’s death rate declined. If you are middle aged but not non-Hispanic white, this is still a measure of the effectiveness of middle aged health care delivery system in your state. As the plan for systematic pre-approval of health care went in place, California and Oregon publicly denied the health insurance industry’s request. I want you want to see the cause of the health insurance industry’s behavior that caused these two states to refuse to go for the health insurance proposal and whose’s death caused California and Oregon to have this lower death rate, to do this, go too:

en.wikipedia.org/…

Now Nataline Sarkisyan’s death has probably affected the death rates in the United States more than anyone else’s. Her death is the cause of California and Oregon’s position in the table below.

From 2007 through 2019 there has been a dramatic change in the pattern of increasing versus decreasing middle age death rates. It is presented here as average yearly percent decline instead of using traditional demographic measures so, I hope, almost everybody can understand it. All the western states, except Arizona and Idaho, had declining middle age death rates. The eastern edge of the declining death rates run from Louisiana, to the north and west through Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, then Wyoming, and finally Montana. These states and all the other states west of them, except Arizona and Idaho, a total of fourteen neighboring, if I can call Hawaii and Alaska neighboring, states, experienced declining death rates while all the states north and east of the above line of states joined Arizona and Idaho and experienced increasing middle age white death rates. I know that the decline occurred in California and Oregon after they denied the private health insurance industry request to allow them to deny care. And their shift from increasing to decreasing death rates coincide in time with when they rejected the health insurance request to let them deny paying for care.

I could find no literature that said the neighboring states that also experienced a declining middle age death rate a little later also denied the health insurance industrie’s right to be allowed to deny coverage. Their death rate just look like they were doing it also. Anyway, the geographic pattern of states with declining death rates versus increasing death rates is absolutely strange. So strange that it is not easy to summarize so instead of summarizing, here is a table with all the states showing how they compare with California and Oregon in declining death rates.

To explain the table I will summarize the Alabama data. If Alabama had experienced the same percent change in their death rate as California and Oregon, they would have experienced 8,273 fewer age 25-54 deaths and given the size of Alabama’s population and the number of deaths, that would have been a 17.0 percent lower death rate, or said another way, only 83 out of every 100 deaths for this age group would have happened. If you browse down the table you can see that the states, marked by *, that followed California and Oregon generally have lower percentages. The rest of the table covers all the other states and you don’t have to read them all, just look at the ones you are interested in. As a side note the estimated. total of the number of lives saved if all the other states had followed California and Oregon is 265,286, or in non-numeric language, a little over a quarter of a million age 25-54 non-Hispanic whites died earlier than if their state had experience the same percent decline in death rates as California and Oregon.

We can not directly see what is the consequence of the health insurance industry denying care, they are the only ones who have data on what they are doing. I take the position that the health insurance industry needs to release all the data they have on all the people they denied care to if they are allowed to say that they are not the cause of these excess deaths.

State (* negative on map) lives saved if at Ca & Or rate Percent saved if at Ca & Or rate Alabama 8,273 17.0 Alaska* 249 4.3 Arizona 3,360 7.5 Arkansas 4,513 13.8 California* -78 0.0 Colorado* 1,948 5.0 Connecticut 4,310 19.7 Delaware 1,221 16.5 Florida 16,046 10.9 Georgia 8,197 11.6 Hawaii* -374 -8.5 Idaho 1,614 12.4 Illinois 9,132 11.2 Indiana 11,920 18.7 Iowa 3,520 13.9 Kansas 2,280 9.4 Kentucky 13,735 24.7 Louisiana* 2,482 6.0 Maine 3,056 24.7 Maryland 3,610 10.1 Massachusetts 7,389 15.4 Michigan 13,161 16.0 Minnesota 5,029 14.6 Mississippi 3,621 13.9 Missouri 8,836 14.8 Montana* 441 4.5 Nebraska 1,573 11.4 Nevada* 1,040 4.4 New Hampshire 2,911 25.5 New Jersey 7,285 14.5 New Mexico 1,214 11.5 New York 8,097 7.9 North Carolina 10,502 13.7 North Dakota 966 18.9 Ohio 24,297 22.1 Oklahoma* 3,799 9.0 Oregon* -8 0.0 Pennsylvania 19,633 18.4 Rhode Island 1,443 17.7 South Carolina 5,880 14.3 South Dakota 1,037 18.8 Tennessee 12,440 17.1 Texas* 4,169 2.7 Utah* 1,333 6.0 Vermont 521 8.8 Virginia 6,419 11.7 Washington* 2,872 5.4 West Virginia 4,846 16.7 Wisconsin 5,339 12.2 Wyoming* 187 3.0

Below and to the right is a small plot of the correlations between single year age death rates from age 20 through 84 for non-Hispanic whites in Alabama, I don’t know how to make it larger on Daily Kos. The above map shows that their death rate for ages 30 through 54 increased an average of 1.82 deaths per 100,000 people per year and the percentage table shows that their excess death rate is a relatively high, 17.0 percent. This graph shows that the increase in their death rate, shown as a dot above the middle line, did not occur among the younger, under age 21, and older age 65+, it only occurred in the age covered by private health insurance. The dots are below the 0.0 line in the middle of the graph. If you would like this graph and the data it is based on for your state, simply email me at [email protected] name your state and tell me you want the data and plot by year of your single year age non-Hispanic white death rates.

If your state has an increasing death rate, the odds are your state’s health insurance regulating board does not know the permission they gave the health insurance industry to deny care has actually resulted in a increase in your state’s middle age death rate.

The other little graph below shows the death rate for our population divided into two groups, the mostly western ones with a declining death rate, they are named above, and the mainly eastern ones, the ones not named above, with an increasing death rate.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/13/2188895/-Our-very-unusual-changes-in-white-age-25-54-state-death-rates-from-2007-through-2017

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