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Stop kowtowing to MSM and give up your hope for a 2024 primary challenger [1]

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Date: 2023-09-12

The hell with election media horseraces in a world where 25% of the national population might be fixated on horse paste (again).

Sloth or fascist law school deans may be the reason for still using the Electoral College, now patched up with legislation to avoid mistaking a Vice Presidential ceremonial duty for autogolpe.

But really, other GQP sneaky crap could occur considering how John Eastman leveraged legal “frivolity”. We’re back at the usual “third party problem, whether it’s Greens or Libertarians, and in whatever might become the swing states of 2024.

The first instance should be Biden endorsing a 21st Century Economic Bill of Rights and the last instance on Election Day 2024 must be the defeat of all Republicans.

(538) What Are The Swing States Of The Future? So have Arizona and Georgia replaced Ohio as the nation’s presidential bellwether? Is once-swingy Florida officially a red state? Let’s talk about what are the swing states to watch in 2024 — and what are the states that could be toss-ups just a few election cycles from now. First question — admittedly it’s still early (come with your 🔥 takes, I give you permission to change your mind later), but what do you think are the most underrated potential swing states for the 2024 cycle? [...] geoffrey.skelley (Geoffrey Skelley, senior elections analyst): I think a lot of this comes down to how you define a swing state. I tend to think about one larger group of battleground states that, under a set of realistic but more favorable conditions, could flip to one party. Then you have a smaller group of core swing states that are actually most likely to decide the outcome of the election. We’ve mentioned a bunch of states from my larger list so far, so I’ll mention a place that’s in my core group of swing areas but isn’t a state: Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. Under the new congressional lines, Biden carried it by a little more than 6 percentage points in 2020, not far from his 4.5-point national win. But under a number of scenarios, that one little electoral vote from the Omaha-based seat could play a role in bringing about — or avoiding — a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College. To me, that makes it underrated. [...] gelliottmorris: I really like Geoff’s math! I tend to think of a swing state as a state that could plausibly provide the winner of the Electoral College with their 270th electoral vote under a wide array of plausible national electoral environments. That somewhat helps us avoid counting a state like Illinois as a “swing state” in a super-Republican year, because by that point they’ve already won the election and it doesn’t really matter if the Republican gets Illinois’s electoral votes too. But generally, I think people underestimate how quickly the political environment in a state can move, conditional on the national political environment staying the same. I mean, just look at Ohio and Iowa from 2012 to 2020: Former President Barack Obama won Ohio by 3 points in 2012, 1 point less than his margin nationally, but by 2020 it was 12 points to the right of the national popular vote. And Iowa went all the way from D+2 to R+12. So our priors for which states are “swing states” are not always super informative. fivethirtyeight.com/...

In November 2020 this is what CNN reported:

There remain four states still not called for either President-elect Joe Biden or President Donald Trump: Alaska, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. Here we go! 1. Georgia: Biden leads by .2 percentage points (99% of precincts reporting) 2. (tie) Arizona: Biden leads by .6 percentage points (98% reporting) 2. (tie) Wisconsin: Biden wins by .6 percentage points (99% reporting) 4. Pennsylvania: Biden wins by .7 percentage points (98% reporting) 5. North Carolina: Trump leads by 1.4 percentage points (98% reporting) 6. Michigan: Biden wins by 2.6 percentage points (99% reporting) 7. Nevada: Biden wins by 2.7 percentage points (97% reporting) 8. Florida: Trump wins by 3.4 percentage points (99% reporting) 9. Texas: Trump wins by 5.9 percentage points (99% reporting) 10. (tie) Minnesota: Biden wins by 7.1% (99% reporting) 10. (tie) New Hampshire: Biden wins by 7.1% (99% reporting) Now, as you might expect given that Biden won the election, he also won most of the closest races in the country. Of the 11 closest states, Biden won six of them and leads in two more. Assuming Georgia and Arizona eventually are called for Biden, he will have won all five of the closest contests in 2020. www.cnn.com/...

Incumbent presidents in particular really prefer to avoid primaries, due partly to the messy history of how such contests unfolded in the second half of the 20th century: In 1968, LBJ faced challenges from Gene McCarthy and Robert F. Kennedy over the Vietnam War. He soon abandoned his reelection bid, and his vice president, Hubert Humphrey, got the nomination at the convention instead. Humphrey lost in the general election to Richard Nixon.

In 1976, Gerald Ford was challenged from the right by Ronald Reagan, who did quite well but ultimately fell short of victory. Ford lost in the general election to Jimmy Carter.

In 1980, Carter was challenged from the left by Ted Kennedy, who won several states and took his fight to the convention before falling short. Carter lost the general election to Reagan.

In 1992, George H. W. Bush was challenged by commentator Pat Buchanan, who didn’t manage to win any states. Bush lost in the general election to Bill Clinton. No president since has faced a credible primary challenge. Except for LBJ, all of these primaried presidents won the primary but lost the general election. That suggests that defeating an incumbent president in the primary is difficult. The conventional wisdom is that it also makes them the party more likely to lose the general election, though that is difficult to prove, since all of these incumbents were primaried because they were already unpopular. [...] “While rank-and-file voters fret about Biden’s age, experienced pols know a primary would wreck the Democratic Party and ensure a Trump dictatorship in 2025,” Philadelphia Inquirer columnist Will Bunch argues. www.vox.com/...

Legendary historian Harvey J. Kaye returns to TPS to make the case for a Marianne Williamson Presidency: the second in our 'cases for' 2024 Presidential candidates series.

x An Economic Bill of Rights | Marianne 2024 - proud to be her advisor. https://t.co/XqqjoQM1Sl — Harvey J Kaye (@harveyjkaye) July 13, 2023

"Marianne Williamson says 2024 bid is not a challenge to Biden but to a system"

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/12/2192828/-Stop-kowtowing-to-MSM-and-give-up-your-hope-for-a-2024-primary-challenger

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