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Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: The politics of 2024 as seen from 2023 [1]

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Date: 2023-09-11

Christian Vanderbrouk/The Bulwark:

They Did This to Themselves By supporting the Liz Cheney purge and downplaying January 6th, Ron DeSantis and his conservative supporters dug their own hole. We can stipulate that the team behind Ron DeSantis has done their candidate no favors. But reserve the lion’s share of blame for the conservative movement as a whole, which acceded to the purge of anti-Trump leaders like Liz Cheney and stifled criticism of the January 6th riot.

x There have been 23 special elections for State Legislature this year



Dems have overperformed Biden's vote share by an average of 8%— literally unprecedented for a party in the White House



I have not read a single article in the mainstream media about this pic.twitter.com/cM46CPrfTD — Brent Peabody 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@brent_peabody) September 9, 2023

Understand that very conservative voters still (and will) turn out. it’s just that the rest of the country hates what Republicans are selling.

Dan Balz/Washington Post:

What divides political parties? More than ever, it’s race and ethnicity. A new report examines political polarization. While acknowledging that anti-democratic impulses among Republicans are most worrisome, it suggests that both parties bear some responsibility for stoking division. “Religion, economic concerns, and factors like education, age, and gender also divide us politically, but the reality is that as America becomes more diverse, it is also becoming more racially divided in the electoral arena,” Zoltan Hajnal of the University of California at San Diego writes in one chapter in the report. Lilliana Mason of Johns Hopkins University writes in another chapter of the report, “The process of social sorting allowed the Republican Party to represent the interests of ‘traditional’ white, Christian America while the Democratic Party was increasingly representing those who were still struggling to overturn centuries of social inequality. This type of divide is not easily corrected — Democrats and Republicans have opposing visions of who should hold power in American society and how much progress has already been made.”

It’s both sides’ fault because one party is racist and Christian nationalist, and the other party isn’t. Therefore, they don’t agree.

And that right there is why doing the right thing doesn’t automatically win. See Liz Cheney. And what that means is you need to play politics. From that, it follows that “your side” is going to choose to do things you don’t like while the other side does things you abhor, and/but you’ll still vote for them.

Further, it means campaigns matter, and Biden’s hasn’t started yet while Trump/Fox has never stopped. That’s one of the main reasons to ignore polling right now.

Jennifer Rubin/Washington Post:

I don’t write about polls. You shouldn’t bother with them, either. You might have noticed that I studiously have avoided dissecting the avalanche of 2024 polls. I don’t plan on deviating from this approach — at least not until mid-2024. And you should consider ignoring the nonstop flood of polling and the rickety analysis dependent on it. Here are five reasons we should all go on a poll-free political diet for at least six months: [...] Second, voters tell us utterly contradictory things. Around 60 percent tell pollsters that four-time-indicted former president Donald Trump should drop out. But then nearly half say they’ll vote for him. Which is it? There is a hefty amount of research that what voters say they want doesn’t align with how they vote. Whether it is gas prices or the war in Ukraine or the candidates themselves, respondents often give contradictory answers, suggesting they either don’t understand the question, don’t really know what they think or respond based on tribal loyalty.

x Lead buried in this WSJ story: 71% of suburban women oppose Supreme Court's Dobbs decision to overturn Roe v. Wade https://t.co/3VvytCxJCw — David Frum (@davidfrum) September 8, 2023

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