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What can North Korea bring to the table? [1]
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Date: 2023-09-09
So Kim Jong Un is going to Russia to meet Putin…
What could North Korea contribute to Putin’s War in Ukraine? one might ask. Most speculation has gone to the supply of North Korea’s artillery shells, which is certainly a possibility. North Korea’s military doctrine and equipment has always followed that of the Soviet Union, and subsequently, of Russia, and that means lots and lots of artillery, and more recently, rocketry. Their program in ballistic missiles is a direct offshoot of this doctrine, enhanced by nuclear capability. Currently, the entire area of North Korea bounding the DMZ, the “demilitarized” zone that forms the border between North and South Korea, is brimming with Soviet-era artillery guns emplaced in deep bunkers designed to withstand US precision shelling and bombing. It just happens that the northern suburbs of Seoul, and lots of other South Korean infrastructure (including some of its semiconductor plants), are within the 30-70 km-or-so range of many of these guns and missiles, or nearly so. Before their nuclear program became the menace it is today, North Korea’s main threat came from this “sea of fire” raining down on South Korean military and civilian targets alike. Over the years, many of these shells have aged and degraded past usefulness, and it is possible that the Kim regime can deliver a huge amount of near-expiring shells to Russia at little consequence to its readiness.
But it seems North Korean shells have already been delivered, and confirmed used, against Ukraine. (and confirmed to be crap, even by Russian standards.) What, then, could represent an escalation of North Korean aid to Russia’s war effort? (And yes, I never in my life ever expected to be typing the words “North Korean aid to Russia’s..” anything. My, how the mighty have fallen.) A sobering possibility comes to mind, that North Korea might be offering its personnel — its soldiers — to fight on behalf of the Russians. The possibility is not as altogether ridiculous as it seems. North Korea, despite its longstanding belligerent posture, has not been in a hot war since the armistice that (sort of) concluded the Korean War. Yes, there have been many border skirmishes and infiltrations to the South, and North Korea has sent soldiers to foreign theaters such as Vietnam, Angola, and most recently, Syria as advisors or even as active combatants. (for a brief history of these deployments, read this article www.nknews.org/... from NK News) However, North Korea has no one in their military with recent experience fighting Americans or American-armed forces — or any significant forces, period. The Ukraine War would represent real-world practice against US/NATO-armed forces, the closest thing to fighting Americans you can get without the real thing, which is invaluable beyond material equipment. It is argued that much of America’s military readiness stems from its regular involvement in wars large and small, with even debacles such as Vietnam serving to train a generation of officers for the next conflict. Even South Korea has seen recent (albeit very minor) combat in Iraq and Afghanistan, and they weren’t doing that out of the goodness of their hearts.
The article I cited above, from last year, downplays the possibility of North Korean troops heading to Ukraine, but the situation has changed considerably since then, and Kim’s upcoming visit to Putin looks like more than the usual is going on. If any country can be induced to send actual manpower to help Russia and actually expect to benefit in the process, it would be North Korea. NK troops can even start gaining extensive experience with drone (and counter-drone) warfare, expanding another dimension of their asymmetrical warfare package, all in an active theater of operations.
Another thing, in an even bigger picture sense: the survival of Putin’s rule may have existential implications for totalitarian regimes the world over. Xi Jinping’s China, the Kim Dynasty in NK, Iran’s Islamic Republic, Venezuela, Egypt, Myanmar,… the list goes on. They are at least rooting for Putin to succeed, or at least not fall, and are mostly providing as much material aid as they think they can get away with. The survival of their regimes depends on Putin’s Russia not collapsing and giving hope to their own dissident population. A disintegrating Russia on the borders of China and North Korea may be a catalyst for instability of which none can predict the outcome. Therefore, Kim will want to prop up Putin, even at the cost of a few thousand of his soldiers (or more). After all, North Korea has never been that sensitive about losing some — or a lot — of its people. For them, regime survival is everything.
How to dissuade them from this? I am not sure. No one has ever really been able to dissuade North Korea from doing anything, really. However, if a bunch of North Korean troops are in Russia or Ukraine when Putin’s regime collapses, it will have a similar effect on the observers as when the Berlin Wall fell — they will go home to tell their countrymen a quite different tale than what they have been hearing. Getting the war closer to Ukraine’s victory and Putin’s demise, with or without North Koreans involved, is going to be the best remedy to anything Russia or North Korea can do.
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