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Michigan State House Districts (2024): HD 38, HD 42, HD 44, HD 73, HD 76 [1]

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Date: 2023-09-08

Up next in my state legislative series is the Michigan House of Representatives. Currently, the balance in the chamber is 56D – 54R, meaning that the Democrats cannot afford to (net) lose any sets in order to maintain their majority. Specifically, a net loss of two seats or more would give the Republicans outright control of the chamber, while a net loss of exactly one seat would produce a tied chamber, presumably resulting in a power sharing agreement. As per usual, I only plan on looking at non-competitive seats (“Safe Democrat” or “Safe Republican”) if they are projected to flip.

Up until now, the members in the Michigan state house could only serve up to six years (three terms). However, due to a ballot proposal that successfully passed last cycle, the term-limit rules have been changed to a twelve-year maximum in both of the state’s legislative chambers (with an exception for recently elected individuals in the upper chamber). As a result, no state house members are term-limited this cycle. I am assuming, unless stated otherwise, that the incumbents are running for reelection.

Today, I am going to look at five house districts: HD 38, HD 42, HD 44, HD 73, and HD 76, all located (more or less) in the southwestern part of the state.

Michigan House District 38

MI HD 38 is located on Lake Michigan, encompassing a narrow strip of land and covering parts of Allegan, Berrien, and Van Buren counties. HD 38 overlaps with several pre-2022 districts, most notably HD 79, which includes the heavily Democratic community of Benton Harbor. HD 79 had been a competitive Republican-leaning district at the presidential level, as it supported Mitt Romney by a little less than 4 points and Donald Trump by a slightly larger margin of nearly 8 points in 2016. However, the district moved several points to the left in 2020, with Trump only narrowly carrying it by 1.5 points. While the 2012 house race for HD 79 was competitive, as the Republican incumbent won by about 7 points, the district was otherwise fairly safe for Republicans at the state house level, with the GOP winning the seat by about 19 to 20 points in 2014 and 2016, and by narrower, but still not particularly close margins of about 11.5 points in 2018 and 13 points in 2020. HD 38 is considerably more Dem-leaning, as it would have supported Joe Biden by a little more than 9 points. The 2022 state house race for HD 38 was quite close, with Democrat Joey Andrews, who was the 2018 Democratic challenger for HD 79, winning the open seat by between 3 and 4 points. Andrews should be favored somewhat this cycle, given that he will now have the advantage of incumbency as well as Biden’s decent margin here, but it seems reasonable to expect a competitive race, considering that the seat is friendlier to Republicans down-ballot. I’m classifying HD 38 as Lean Democrat.

Michigan House District 42

MI HD 42 covers much of Kalamazoo’s northern, southern, and eastern exurbs. HD 42 overlaps with several pre-2022 districts, having the most overlap with HD 63. HD 63 was a heavily Republican district that supported Romney by about 10 points and Trump by nearly 21 points in 2016 and by a little more than 17 points in 2020. Interestingly, the 2012 state house race for HD 63 was very close, with Republican incumbent Jase Bolger winning by less than 2 points, though the GOP easily held onto the seat in subsequent races. In particular, Republican Matt Hall won the open seat in 2018 by just over 17 points and was reelected by about 24.5 points in 2020. HD 42 is several points bluer than HD 63, with Trump’s 2020 margin shrinking to about 7 points in the former district. Hall held onto HD 42 in 2022, winning reelection by 10 points, underperforming his HD 63 performances by quite a bit, which isn’t too surprising. Hall should be heavily favored, but the district is worth keeping an eye on, given that it was within single digits at the presidential level in 2020. I’m classifying HD 42 as Likely Republican.

Michigan House District 44

MI HD 44 contains parts of Calhoun County, including the community of Battle Creek. HD 44 is very similar to the pre-2022 iteration of HD 62, which was traditionally Democratic leaning, but became very competitive in recent years, going from supporting Barack Obama by between 11 and 12 points in 2012 to narrowly supporting Trump by between 2 and 3 points in 2016 and by an even closer margin of between 1 and 2 points in 2020. While Democrat Kate Segal easily won reelection in HD 62 by double-digits in 2012, Republican John Bizon managed to flip the district in 2014, narrowly winning the open seat by about 2.5 points, and was reelected by an even narrower margin of half a percentage point in 2016 and with just 48% of the vote. (There was a Libertarian on the ballot who got about 4.5% of the vote.) Democrat Jim Haadsma, who previously challenged Bizon in 2016, was able to flip the seat back in 2018, winning the open race by between 3 and 4 points, and was reelected by a slightly narrower margin in 2020, against the same Republican challenger he faced in 2018. HD 44 is very slightly bluer than HD 62, with Trump’s 2020 margin shrinking to less than a percentage point in the former district. Haadsma held onto HD 44 in 2022, winning about 4.5 points, slightly improving on his previous performances. The district should be competitive again this cycle, given how close it’s been in the past. I’m classifying HD 44 as a Toss Up.

Michigan House District 73

MI HD 73 is based in Ingham County, home to Lansing, and encompasses the city’s southeastern suburbs. HD 73 has considerable overlap with the pre-2022 iteration of HD 67, which was a relatively Dem-leaning district, having supported Obama by a little more than 9 points in 2012, Hillary Clinton by a considerably closer 3-point margin, and Biden just under 9 points (nearly matching Obama’s performance). The state house races for HD 67 were somewhat competitive, with Democrats winning the 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2020 races all by about 8 to 10 points. HD 73 is very slightly bluer than HD 67, with Biden’s margin expanding to about 9.5 points in the former district. Democrat incumbent Julie Brixie, who had been representing the pre-2022 iteration of HD 69 (directly north of HD 67), easily held onto HD 73 in 2022, winning the district by between 14 and 15 points. Brixie should be fairly safe, but the district still warrants notice. I’m classifying HD 73 as Likely Democrat.

Michigan House District 76

MI HD 76 is based in Eaton County, and contains some of Lansing’s southwestern suburbs, such as Delta Charter Township and Eaton Rapids. HD 76 is very similar to the pre-2022 iteration of HD 71, which was a highly competitive district, having supported Obama by between 4 and 5 points and Trump by just over 2 points in 2016 and by a razor-thin 72-vote margin in 2020 (less than a quarter of a percentage point). Republican Tom Barrett flipped HD 71 in 2014, as he very narrowly defeated incumbent Democrat Theresa Abed by less than half a percentage point and was reelected by a fairly comfortable 11-point margin in 2016, defeating Abed in a rematch. However, Democrat Angela Witwer managed to flip the district back in 2018, narrowly winning the open seat by less than 2 points and was reelected in 2020 by a larger 4-point margin (and would have likely won by even more if not for a Green Party candidate that got 1.5% of the vote). HD 76 is a few points bluer than HD 71, as Biden would have narrowly carried the former district by around 2 points. Witwer easily held onto HD 76 in 2022, winning reelection by a comfortable 11.5-point margin, though it should be noted that the Republican candidate raised hardly any money, which may partially explain Witwer’s overperformance. Witwer should be favored this cycle, given her strengths as a candidate, but it seems reasonable to expect a competitive race, especially if the Republicans run a strong candidate. I’m classifying HD 76 as Lean Democrat (but could see potentially shifting the district to Likely Democrat).

Thanks to cnalysis (for the 2020 presidential results of the new districts), Daily Kos Elections (for the presidential results of the old districts), and New York Times (for precinct-level data).

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/8/2192176/-Michigan-State-House-Districts-2024-HD-38-HD-42-HD-44-HD-73-and-HD-76

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