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Ukraine Invasion Day 562: next Russian defensive positions are weaker than those previously breached [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-09-07

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 7 and made further gains on both sectors of the front.

Key Takeaways: US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) Director of Analysis Trent Maul stated that there is a “realistic possibility” that Ukrainian forces will break through the entire Russian defense in southern Ukraine by the end of 2023, while a Ukrainian source suggested that upcoming Russian defensive positions are weaker than those Ukrainian forces have previously breached.

Ukrainian forces are making tactical gains and successfully attriting defending Russian forces and ISW continues to assess Ukraine’s counteroffensive may achieve operational successes in 2023, but subsequent series of Russian defensive positions still pose significant challenges for Ukrainian forces and may in sections be strongly held.

Russian forces conducted another large-scale Shahed-136/131 drone attack against Sumy and Odesa oblasts overnight on September 6-7.

Moscow Oblast authorities detained the commander of the 1st Special Purpose Air and Missile Defense Army on bribery and corruption charges amidst continued and escalating drone attacks on Moscow.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, in the Bakhmut direction, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area but did not make any confirmed advances on September 7. www.understandingwar.org/...

x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - SEP 7

11:5 🇷🇺/🇺🇦 added by @oryxspioenkop 🇳🇱 - 11:4 after corrections/duplicates

VISUALLY CONFIRMED:

2.7x losses to date ➡

1.7x during 2023 counteroffensive ➡

1.6x 30-day average ➡

📈 https://t.co/1HWiMU9yS6 pic.twitter.com/0jRWwNXFHw — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 [email protected] (@ragnarbjartur) September 7, 2023

www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and did not make any claimed or confirmed advances on September 7. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Synkivka (9km northeast of Kupyansk) and Novoyehorivka (15km southwest of Svatove). [28] A Russian milblogger also reported Russian attacks near Novoyehorivka and Novoselivske (16km northwest of Svatove). [29] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Ilya Yevlash stated on September 6 that Russian forces are conducting an operational pause after experiencing failure near Novoyehorivka and are forming new combat-ready units from previously defeated units for further attacks. [30] www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction on September 7 and advanced south of Bakhmut. Geolocated footage posted on September 7 of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade striking Ukrainian positions shows that Ukrainian forces have marginally advanced northwest of Klishchiivka (about 5km southwest of Bakhmut). [33] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces advanced on Bakhmut’s southern flank, and Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Ilya Yevlash noted on September 6 that Ukrainian forces advanced near Klishchiivka. [34] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Klishchiivka and Andriivka (9km southwest of Bakhmut). [35] Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction and did not make any claimed or confirmed advances on September 7. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces attacked near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (13km northwest of Bakhmut) and Klishchiivka. [36] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/...

x In the occupied Oleshky, the Kherson region , a car with Russian FSB agents and military personnel was blown up 😍🔥💥#Ukraine #Russia #UkraineRussianWar #ukrainecounteroffensive pic.twitter.com/IU98iD5BOb — Dr. Khaled Alfaiomi (@Alfaiomi) September 7, 2023

US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) Director of Analysis Trent Maul stated that there is a “realistic possibility” that Ukrainian forces will break through the entire Russian defense in southern Ukraine by the end of 2023, while a Ukrainian source suggested that upcoming Russian defensive positions are weaker than those Ukrainian forces have previously breached. Maul stated on September 6 in an interview with the Economist that the recent Ukrainian breach of the “first” of three Russian defensive layers in southern Ukraine gives Ukrainian forces a “realistic possibility” to break through the remaining series of Russian defensive positions by the end of 2023. [6] Maul stated that Ukrainian forces have also advanced into the “second” Russian defensive layer, likely referring to recent advances by light Ukrainian infantry past the series of Russian defensive positions that run northwest of Verbove to north of Solodka Balka (20km south of Orikhiv) in western Zaporizhia Oblast. [7] Former Ukrainian Aidar Battalion Commander Yevhen Dykyi stated on September 4 that battles are already ongoing at these Russian defensive positions but that Ukrainian forces have not yet broken through them. [8] Dykyi stated that the minefields ahead of the upcoming Russian defensive layer are not continuous, consistent with previous Ukrainian statements suggesting that Ukrainian forces have already advanced through the densest minefields. [9] Dykyi stated that Russia’s “third” defensive layer in southern Ukraine is primarily comprised of command posts, communication points, and warehouses and mainly acts as a support line for the Russian defensive positions further north. [10] Dykyi argued that Russian forces will not be able to hold back Ukrainian advances at this “third“ series of Russian defensive positions, implying that a definitive Ukrainian breach of the current Russian defensive layer would be operationally decisive. However, Maul notably stated that the bulk of Russian reinforcements are deployed to the “third” Russian defensive layer, contradicting Dykyi’s suggestion that these positions are merely supportive in nature. [11] The subsequent series of Russian defensive positions may be weaker, less mined, and less manned than the defensive layer that Ukrainian forces have breached. Russian defenses are not uniform across the front in southern Ukraine, however, and assessments of the strength of subsequent Russian defensive positions may be extrapolations based on limited information from small sectors of the front. Ukrainian forces are making tactical gains and successfully attriting defending Russian forces and ISW continues to assess Ukraine’s counteroffensive may achieve operational successes in 2023, but subsequent series of Russian defensive positions still pose significant challenges for Ukrainian forces and may in sections be strongly held www.understandingwar.org/...

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/7/2192131/-562-upcoming-Russian-defensive-positions-are-weaker-than-those-previously-breached

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