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Kansas State Senate: 2024 Ratings [1]

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Date: 2023-09-06

Up next in my state legislative summary posts (for 2024 ratings) is the Kansas State Senate.

A chart with my ratings for all the competitive seats can be found at the top of the post. As per usual, I have excluded non-competitive seats (“Safe Democrat” or “Safe Republican”) unless they are projected to flip.

This post will be very short, as there are very few updates (i.e. rating changes), given that I just looked at the chamber in my last three posts.

My overall rating for the chamber is Safe Republican. As was noted in a previous post, the current balance of the chamber is 28R – 11D – 1I, so treating the Independent as a Republican for simplicity, given as previously noted he generally still votes with the Republicans, the Dems need a net gain of at least ten seats for control of the chamber, with a net gain of exactly nine seats producing a tied chamber and a power-sharing agreement. Even if the Democrats were to win every competitive seat, many of which are Republican-leaning, and the one Independent survives reelection and doesn’t change back to the GOP, this would still give the Republicans a one-seat majority.

It's a Toss Up, however, as to whether the Republican will maintain their supermajority, given that Dems only need a net gain of three seats to break it. Democrats are practically guaranteed to flip one seat, SD 19, but are also heavily favored to lose another, SD 9, so these flips cancel each other out to some degree. Democrats need to win at least four of the five toss-ups to break the supermajority, assuming both parties hold onto the remaining the seats they are favored to win. (Note that the GOP holds four of the toss-ups, and Dems hold the other.) The path towards ending GOP supermajority seems a bit harder than it is in the KS state house, and if the Dems manage to break the senate supermajority, they’ve likely also managed to break the house supermajority.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/6/2191767/-Kansas-State-Senate-2024-Ratings

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