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Ukraine Invasion Day 559: weakest of RU defense evidence plus tired logic used against drones [1]

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Date: 2023-09-04

Ukrainian light infantry has advanced to positions beyond anti-tank ditches and dragon’s teeth anti-tank obstacles that comprise the current Russian defensive layer ahead of the Ukrainian advance in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and Ukrainian forces likely intend to hold those positions. ISW is not prepared to assess that Ukrainian forces have breached this Russian defensive layer in the absence of observed Ukrainian heavy equipment in these areas. Geolocated footage published on September 4 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced to tree-line positions that are east of the Russian anti-tank ditches and dragon’s teeth obstacles that are a part of a tri-layered defense immediately west of Verbove (18km southeast of Orikhiv).[1] Geolocated footage published on September 4 indicates that Ukrainian light infantry has also advanced further into a series of prepared Russian defensive positions along the road that runs northwest into Verbove.[2] Other geolocated footage published on September 4 indicates that Ukrainian forces have advanced up to Russian defensive positions between Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) and Novoprokopivka (13km south of Orikhiv).[3] Ukrainian forces are widening the breach they have already made in one Russian defensive layer and are reportedly maneuvering more equipment and personnel into tactical rear areas of this layer.[4] Ukrainian forces appear to be making gains in the immediate vicinity of the not-yet-breached Russian defensive layer that runs northwest of Verbove to north of Solodka Balka (20km south of Orikhiv) with infantry assaults and heavy artillery fire on Russian positions further into and south of this layer.[5] The deployment of Ukrainian heavy equipment and more substantial forces to these areas than ISW has so far observed would indicate both a breach of this Russian defensive layer and an effort to widen that breach.

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on September 4 but did not make any confirmed advances. The Ukrainian General Staff and Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Novoyehorivka (16km southwest of Svatove) and Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna).[31] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Ilya Yevlash stated that Russian forces have begun to strengthen their positions near Novoyehorivka and have stopped storming Ukrainian positions in the area.[32] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces attacked near Novoyehorivka and east of Petropavlivka (7km east of Kupyansk).[33] ... A Russian news aggregator claimed that Russian forces took control of an unspecified number of Ukrainian positions and advanced 2km in the Kupyansk direction, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of this claim.[35] Malyar stated that Ukrainian forces repel several Russian attacks per day in the Kupyansk direction.[36]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations near Bakhmut and advanced on September 4. Geolocated footage published on September 4 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced east of Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut).[39] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that Ukrainian forces achieved unspecified successes near Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) and that Ukrainian forces have liberated three square kilometers in the Bakhmut direction in the past week.[40] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Ilya Yevlash stated that Ukrainian forces continue offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction, particularly near Klishchiivka.[41] The Russian MoD claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Bakhmut.[42]

Russian forces reportedly attempted to expand minefields in southern Ukraine following the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in June. The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) reported that the Russian command determined at the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive that Ukrainian forces might be able to easily breach the Russian doctrinal minefield depth of 120 meters leading Russian forces to aim to increase the depth of their minefields up to 500 meters.[6] RUSI stated that Russian forces lacked enough mines to mine these larger areas as densely as Russian doctrine dictates, causing Russian forces to deviate from doctrine, including by using improvised explosive devices and a wider and differential distance between mines.[7] RUSI stated that Russian forces tried to compensate for decreased minefield density by increasing the effectiveness of anti-tank mines by placing two on top of each other.[8] Ukrainian operations across several sectors of the front have likely further compounded these constraints on the Russian effort to expand minefields by forcing Russian forces to disperse their mining efforts along wide sectors of the frontline. Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Oleksandr Shtupun stated on September 3 that minefields near the next series of Russian defensive positions in western Zaporizhia are less dense than the initial defensive layer that Ukrainian forces advanced through.[9] ISW has previously assessed that Ukrainian forces may encounter denser minefields at certain sections of subsequent series of Russian defensive positions, however.[10]

www.understandingwar.org/...

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/4/2191473/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-559-weakest-of-RU-evidence-and-the-strangest-logic-used-against-drones

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