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Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: The primary is over before it began, even as the general election looms [1]
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Date: 2023-09-03
The Wall Street Journal:
Trump Is Top Choice for Nearly 60% of GOP Voters, WSJ Poll Shows Support for DeSantis collapses in postdebate survey The new survey finds that what was once a two-man race for the nomination has collapsed into a lopsided contest in which Trump, for now, has no formidable challenger. The former president is the top choice of 59% of GOP primary voters, up 11 percentage points since April, when the Journal tested a slightly different field of potential and declared candidates. Trump’s lead over his top rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, has nearly doubled since April to 46 percentage points. At 13% support, DeSantis is barely ahead of the rest of the field, none of whom has broken out of single-digit support.
x I’ll commit any crime you want—but please don’t yell at me — Xeorge Xonway (@gtconway3d) September 2, 2023
That’s a reference to the Mark Meadows federal hearings transcript, in which he declared he was afraid Donald Trump would yell at him.
Ron Brownstein/The Atlantic:
Why Biden Just Can’t Shake Trump in the Polls The core four dynamics shaping 2024 “It is a sad reality that the race could be this close given Trump’s position, but it is. And I think it’s very clear that Trump can win this race if the election was tomorrow,” the Democratic pollster Andrew Baumann told me. Political operatives and scientists agree on one key reason Biden and Trump remain so closely paired in a potential rematch: In our polarized political era, far fewer voters than in the past are open to switching sides for any reason.
Brian Klaas/”The Garden of Forking Paths” on Substack:
How Trump Could Win Donald Trump is deeply unpopular outside his base and is facing multiple criminal investigations that could land him in jail. But...he could also win the 2024 US presidential election Here's how: But Trump shifted America’s Republican political landscape. His party is now within the Land of Authoritarian Politics. This is the world I’ve studied for more than a decade, from Madagascar to Belarus and Thailand—and now in the United States. In that world, rational choice models fall apart. They’re comically bad at predicting events, because voters will repeatedly cling to a single charismatic individual even if they lose. Policy becomes secondary to personality. And when the charismatic authoritarian leader of the movement lashes himself to the mast of unpopular policies (such as bans on abortion or trying to undermine the integrity of elections), the broader movement stays lashed together right there with him, ignoring the siren calls of pundits who howl about electability.
To be clear, Trump likely won’t win, but it will be close enough that he could. We can’t go by polls now. Republicans are (prematurely) fully engaged because of indictments, and Democrats (and other normies) are not. There is so much more to play out.
Think also on the elections after 2020 so far (which have leaned Democrat).
It’s also entirely possible pollsters get the electorate wrong and mis-apportion voters (see 2022 and the Red Wave that wasn’t).
Still, it’s reasonable and prudent to think of this as a very close race that could go either way. As political pros are fond of saying, always worry but never panic.
x Sen. Rick Scott has been at loggerheads since Gov. Ron DeSantis succeeded him
For those of us who know Scott —a fierce partisan who seldom says a kind word about Prez Biden — this is a total troll of DeSantis who skipped appearing with POTUS today
https://t.co/aB0sZfTwhr — Marc Caputo (@MarcACaputo) September 2, 2023
The Washington Post:
Trump’s Truth Social facing a key funding deadline The ‘blank check’ ally of former president Donald Trump’s media start-up was once a stock-market star. It’s now days away from potential liquidation. Now, almost two years later, the deal faces what could be a catastrophic threat. With the merger stalled for months, Digital World is fast approaching a Sept. 8 deadline for the merger to close and has scheduled a shareholder meeting for Tuesday in hopes of getting enough votes to extend the deadline another year. If the vote fails, Digital World will be required by law to liquidate and return $300 million to its shareholders, leaving Trump’s company with nothing from the transaction.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution:
Emails show Sidney Powell’s ties to copying Georgia election data Attorney tries to distance herself from Coffee County incident Although attorney Sidney Powell is now denying that she had much to do with a South Georgia elections breach, public records indicate she was deeply involved. Powell’s nonprofit organization paid $26,000 for computer analysts to copy Georgia’s statewide voting system software in Coffee County on Jan. 7, 2021, the day after a riot at the U.S. Capitol, according to an invoice.
The amazing thing is watching as the RICO pressure pits the indicted/cursed/undead against each other. Should Meadows’ current bid to remove the case to federal jurisdiction (and then move to dismiss) fail, it will get even more interesting.
Ryan Goodman/X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, via Threadreader:
NEW and big revelations in Meadows’ hearing transcript.
Meadows testified he got involved in false electors scheme - why did he do it?
"Because I know I would get yelled at by" Trump if I didn't.
This will bolster prosecutors' cases
x In August, 1970, Walter Cronkite returned from vacation to anchor "The CBS Evening News." The audience flooded CBS with letters about Cronkite's new hair(piece), calling into question his honesty.
His response was legendary. pic.twitter.com/eSaze6uSWq — Michael Socolow (@MichaelSocolow) August 6, 2021
Talking Points Memo:
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