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Democrats need to become a national party again! [1]

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Date: 2023-09-01

In 1937 LBJ climbed on the flatbed of an old broken-down Ford TT Truck in the hill country of Texas. The Incumbent congressman had just died and Johnson was desperate to fill the seat.

“What do you want to talk to us about Lyndon,” an old dirt farmer asked.

Johnson pointed to the power lines on top of the hills and proclaimed “Power!”

“Why is it that these companies from the east use our land for their powerlines? Place them over top of us and deny us our own lights? Our own running water?”

He asked what man in this crowd can just turn on a switch? Not one. He asked who in the crowd could use a telephone to call a doctor if their sons got sick? Not one! He said it was time the hill country paid attention, time they had someone fighting for them. A person in the crowd claimed it had never happened, would never happen, politicians always made promises they didn’t deliver.

“Horse shit!” the future President roared back.

He had to work hard, lost 20 pounds, and won the race from a hospital bed due to a burst appendix. But from the moment he climbed on the flatbed of that truck he had his narrative. He had the fuel he needed to win. He had given them a reason to fight, he had made it about their needs. At a time when the New Deal was facing opposition from its critics for being national socialism, Johnson skillfully portrayed those critics as profiteers. Progress wasn’t socialism, it was the means to a better life.

Now before you think, “Well of course! He was LBJ! He was a master!” I just want you all to remember one thing… No one believed he had it in him in 1937. No one thought he was capable, he was an unknown, a former congressional aide, with no money, running against established candidates. He made the leap, he took the chance. He outthought the problem and personalized the issues. And the party didn’t see it coming. Johnson proved the unimportance of the party.

Republican gains in the 2022 elections were due to just two things. Republican gerrymandering and a lack of Democratic recruitment. We have developed a culture in our party that it is better, far better to wait your turn in a safe district. To languish in the wings waiting for a sure thing than to run in unsafe conditions in competitive or even hostile regions.

So the message is clear rural Democrats, red-state Democrats, and even first-time candidates in blue strongholds. Just Run! If you live in the rural red south or the ruby red plains of the west, don’t be discouraged! Don’t let past elections and the inflated campaign totals of incumbents turn you away from running.

Because while gerrymandering doesn’t help matters, it’s not ever going to improve when so many seats aren’t being challenged. Especially in rural areas, where citizens would be our allies when it comes to economic issues (you know the thing that kept Democrats with a congressional majority for 48 years!)

A new Pew Research Center analysis of verified voters and nonvoters in 2022, 2020, 2018, and 2016 finds that partisan differences in turnout – rather than vote switching between parties – account for most of the Republican gains in voting for the House last year. Overall, 68% of those who voted in the 2020 presidential election turned out to vote in the 2022 midterms. Former President Donald Trump’s voters turned out at a higher rate in 2022 (71%) than did President Joe Biden’s voters (67%). But, it's important to remember that in many areas, there is no reason for Biden voters to turn up. Many red districts (say R+10) only field challengers in Presidential years.

In contrast, Democrats running in districts that are D +10 will often face challenges each cycle.

It's important to also remember that many of the Republicans currently in power in the South and the West began their political career losing to Democratic incumbents in 1992, 96, and 1998. Democrats for the love of god! If there is a field, you must play!

Also according to the analysis, more rural voters changed their vote from a Democratic to a Republican candidate between 2018 and 2022 than the reverse. The Republican margin among this group nearly doubled between 2018 and 2022 (from 21 points to 40 points). Among rural voters, Republican candidates in 2022 held on to 97% of those who voted Republican in 2018, while Democratic candidates held on to a smaller share (91%). And among White voters with no college degree, Republicans benefited from slightly higher rates of defection from Democratic candidates among those who voted in both elections. So again, broken record! Democratic party officials! Throwing parties in Miami and calling it a “Turn Florida Blue” event isn’t going to win you many congressional seats. Leaving nearly two dozen state house seats uncontested is not going to help you get better maps every ten years.

Democrats if you continue to focus only on Blue districts don’t be shocked when these districts shrink each cycle. Republican candidates in these districts want Americans to stay divided. They want voters to remain turned off. Their side has nothing to prove and no desire to reach out beyond their base. But I am telling you the people in these districts are hungry! They sense down to their marrow that there must be a better way. They have seen their wages freeze, they hold their breaths each month when the bills arrive. They struggle to provide and keep hope alive in their own families. They live in the same conditions you live in, the only difference is they don’t challenge themselves. They remain cognitively detached from the process.

It is the burden and the privilege of Democrats, of any member of the left to challenge these people, to fight for them, even against themselves. I’m not saying it’s going to be easy. I don’t believe it’s going to work everywhere or every time. But, it is our duty to protect, inspire, and motivate. At its core, the Democratic Party is the party that believes in justice, equality, and community. In reaching out to all people, especially those that don’t know they are being targeted by the rich and the powerful.

But to those of you who may think it’s better to just leave these folks to their own devices, to spend money on guaranteed races. Well, I think I’ll just quote the American President with the best legislative record in history on that one –

“Horseshit!”

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/1/2190910/-Democrats-have-to-be-a-real-national-party-again

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