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Michigan’s Republican Senate Primary Is About to Heat Up [1]
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Date: 2023-08-10 09:00:00
Michigan’s Republican Senate primary has been an oddity: Despite the seat being open after Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s planned retirement, the Republican race has been notably silent. No top candidates have entered it, a direct contrast to much of the Democratic establishment rallying around Rep. Elissa Slotkin’s candidacy.
That is about to change.
Multiple Michigan Republicans looking closely at the race are expected to make their decisions in the coming weeks, joining a small field of lesser-known candidates for the shot to take on Slotkin, the Democrat expected to win the state’s primary next year.
The candidate most likely to run is James Craig, the former chief of the Detroit Police Department and a candidate for governor in 2022.
“I am probably 99 percent certain,” Craig told The Messenger when asked if he planned to run. “And if I get in it, I am going to win.”
Craig said he was targeting late September for an announcement, but will “continue to get close to making that final decision” over the next few weeks. The former police chief has a meeting planned with the National Republican Senatorial Committee in September, a gathering that was confirmed by a second source familiar with the plans.
Craig’s candidacy would come with some baggage, however. Although the law enforcement official was seen as the frontrunner for the party’s nomination in 2022, he failed to gain ballot access after it was revealed that thousands of the signatures he submitted were fraudulent, the product of a criminal circulator ring. He was not alone in this mess: Five other Republicans were disqualified from the ballot.
“I do believe I would have been the nominee on the GOP ticket,” Craig told The Messenger. When asked how he would avoid that kind of baggage sinking his next Senate run, he said he was “looking ahead to 2024 and that is what is important to me.”
Not all Republicans are prepared to look past the 2022 mishap, however. Some national Republicans, who requested anonymity to speak candidly about Craig’s possible candidacy, said there are widespread concerns about the former police chief’s viability given the 2022 failures.
Craig not alone
Craig is far from the only candidate with electoral experience looking at the race.
Former Rep. Mike Rogers, who is currently exploring a quixotic presidential campaign, is said to be seriously considering a Senate run. Operatives in the state expect him to make a decision soon.
A Rogers adviser did not respond to The Messenger’s request for comment. But John Stineman, another adviser to the former congressman, told Politico in July that Rogers is “humbled by the outpouring of encouragement he’s received to run for federal office by Michigan friends, family and neighbors, as well as people across the country,” adding that “Rogers is actively considering the best way to continue his career of service.”
Craig took aim at Rogers during his interview, telling The Messenger that he has not kept an eye on other candidates in the field.
“To be candid, I think they are watching me,” he said. “I’m not concerned about Mike Rogers. If he gets in, so be it.”
Former Rep. Peter Meijer is also said to be considering a run. Meijer, who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump and then lost his 2022 primary to Trump-backed candidate John Gibbs, has strong name identification in the state. As the grandson of the founder of the Meijer supermarket chain, he also has considerable personal wealth to put behind a run.
An adviser to Meijer declined to comment or make the former congressman available for this story.
Both Rogers and Meijer have positioned themselves as anti-Trump Republicans in a party dominated by the former president. Meijer’s impeachment vote likely cost him his seat in Congress, while Rogers has publicly denounced Trump’s brand of brash politics and said his time has come and gone. Should they run, both would have to deal with those past comments in a state where Republican voters continue to support the former president’s bid to retake the White House.
Jeff Timmer, a Republican operative who previously worked as the executive director of the Michigan Republican Party and now works as a senior adviser to the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, cast doubt that anyone with a history of criticizing the former president would be able to get through a Republican primary.
“Rogers has about zero chance of winning a primary among today’s GOP voters. The things that used to be pluses… are kryptonite to Republican voters. It’s in no way his Republican Party anymore,” said Timmer. “Pete Meijer has less than zero chance of winning."
Timmer also took a dim view of Craig’s chances, saying he “lacks the ability to capitalize on a relatively advantageous starting position,” as evidenced by his failure in the 2022 gubernatorial primary.
That’s not where the list of possible candidates ends, however.
Former Detroit Police Chief James Craig speaks to the crowd during his 2022 gubernatorial campaign. Scott Legato/WireImage
Republican operatives in the state have also heard that John Tuttle, the vice chair of the New York Stock Exchange and a native of Southeast Michigan, is strongly considering a Senate run. Tuttle, a graduate of Eastern Michigan University, served in George W. Bush’s administration before joining the stock exchange. Tuttle did not respond to a request for comment.
And Sandy Pensler, a businessman and Republican Senate candidate who lost in the 2018 Republican primary, is eying a run and, according to a source familiar with his plans, has been in touch with the National Republican Senatorial Committee about his aspirations. Pensler, who founded the private investment firm Pensler Capital, is attractive to some Republicans because of his ability to self-fund his campaign, something Republicans have targeted this cycle as they look to cut into Democrat’s fundraising advantage. The Detroit News reported earlier this month that the businessman was considering a run.
A state party in 'disarray'
Polling shows the Republican field is wide open.
An Emerson College poll released this month found Rogers with 12% support in the Republican primary, compared to 9% for Meijer and 6% for Nikki Snyder, the state board of education member who has already announced her candidacy. A sizable 68% of voters chose either “someone else” or “undecided” in the question.
While Craig was not included in the Republican primary poll, the college did poll a hypothetical matchup between him and Slotkin, finding that Democrat held a 45% to 38% lead.
On the Democratic side, although Slotkin is seen as the odds-on favorite, she does not hold a majority in the primary. The poll found the congresswoman had support from 34% of Democrats, compared to 8% for actor Hill Harper, who announced his candidacy in July. Nearly 50% of voters said they were either undecided in the primary or would support someone else.
The silence of the Michigan race has surprised many in the state, especially Republican operatives who often expect raucous primaries with a range of Republicans. One reason for the slow start, said John Sellek, a Republican operative in the state, is the dysfunction at the state party.
“The Republican gubernatorial primary [in 2022] was a pretty good sign to most serious candidates that the Mighican GOP is in disarray and that has only been confirmed as the first 7-8 months of this year has gone by,” said Sellek, citing recent reporting that the party has less than $100,000 in the bank.
Craig validated this feeling. "I’m not looking to the state party for anything," he said, calling the state of the party "a concern."
The second reason, said Sellek, is that few people expected Stabenow, who is 73, to retire, given much of the United States Senate is closer to 80. Because of that, he said, the expectation was the race would feature a “cluster of MAGA and gadfly activists running for the GOP nomination” because no “serious” candidate would take on the incumbent.
But, he concluded, it’s time for Republicans to get into the race because Slotkin, a known strong fundraiser, is “building a war chest.” According to her second quarter filing with the Federal Election Commission, the congresswoman has $6.5 million in the bank for her Senate bid.
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[1] Url:
https://themessenger.com/politics/michigans-republican-senate-primary-is-about-to-heat-up
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