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Ukraine Invasion Day 554: Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) banning Wagner troops from UKR fighting [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-08-30

Wagner continues being dismantled, as air attacks continue, and ground combat gets to the “second” defensive line in the south.

UKR shot down 28 of 28 Kh-101/Kh-555/Kh cruise missiles and 15 out of 16 Shahed UCAVS--- an interception rate of 97%. Russian forces conducted a large-scale missile and drone strike predominantly targeting Kyiv on the night of August 29-30, likely in retaliation for the Ukrainian strikes earlier on Moscow and Pskov oblasts. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces launched 28 Kh-101, Kh-555, and Kh-55 air-launched cruise missiles from aircraft operating out of Engels airbase in Saratov Oblast and the Caspian Sea, and 16 Shahed-136/131 drones from Krasnodar Krai and Kursk Oblast.[12] Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian air defenses shot down all 28 cruise missiles and 15 drones over Kyiv, Odesa, Cherkasy, and Mykolaiv oblasts.[13] The Kyiv City Military Administration reported that Ukrainian forces shot down over 20 air targets over Kyiv.[14] This Russian strike was considerably larger than other Russian strikes in recent weeks and was likely in retaliation for the Ukrainian strikes on Moscow and Pskov Oblasts earlier in the night. understandingwar.org/...

The Russian MoD is reportedly banning Wagner Group soldiers from fighting in Ukraine. Russian opposition media outlets obtained an audio message in which a Wagner representative encourages Wagner servicemen to look for different work because the Russian MoD is not allowing Wagner forces to fight in Ukraine, citing recent events.[61] The Wagner representative noted that Wagner fighters are also struggling to work in the Middle East or Africa due to “tough competition” with the Russian MoD and National Guard (Rosgvardia) who are trying to operate in those regions.[62] ISW has previously assessed that the Russian MoD and the Kremlin have been destroying the Wagner Group since the June 24 rebellion.[63] understandingwar.org/... x Russia continues mobilization, convicting those who refused to fight in Ukraine. UK intelligence links high convictions to weakened morale within Russian Army, likely due to lack of training and high losses on the front lines. https://t.co/eqpaI5ssDg — Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) August 30, 2023

x The advance of Ukrainian forces in the eastern and western parts of Zaporizhzhya Oblast has sparked concern among Russians, who acknowledge the vulnerability of their defense lines.https://t.co/XFsfx30OHx — The New Voice of Ukraine (@NewVoiceUkraine) August 30, 2023

x Vladimir Solovyov was furious about Ukraine's latest drone attack. Blinded by rage, he revealed that Russian experts are urging the Kremlin to end this war and came close to admitting that Russia can't win with conventional weapons.https://t.co/YMSanFUYsd — Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) August 30, 2023

Key Takeaways: Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed four Russian Il-76 planes during a drone strike on a Russian airfield in Pskov Oblast on the night of August 29 to 30.

Russian propagandists and milbloggers criticized Russian forces for their inability to defend Russian territory and military facilities, while simultaneously criticizing recent Russian MoD censorship efforts.

Russian forces conducted a large-scale missile and drone strike predominantly targeting Kyiv on the night of August 29-30, likely in retaliation for the Ukrainian strikes earlier on Moscow and Pskov oblasts.

Ukrainian light infantry - likely reconnaissance elements - infiltrated east of Russian field fortifications near Verbove as of August 30.

The Kremlin has reportedly undertaken several efforts to silence or confuse reports about Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s funeral, which likely indicates that the Kremlin remains worried about Prigozhin’s appeal in Russia and among Wagner forces even after his death.

Some Russian officials may be probing the views of milbloggers about Prigozhin and his death to identify and censor Russian ultranationalists not clearly connected with Prigozhin or Wagner.

Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov reiterated his loyalty to Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 30 in continued attempts to distance himself from Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 30 and reportedly advanced.

Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations along at least two sectors of the front on August 30 and advanced near Bakhmut, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is reportedly banning Wagner Group soldiers from fighting in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian Crimean-based “Atesh” partisan group claimed that its partisans successfully detonated an explosive at the campaign headquarters of the United Russia party in occupied Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast on August 29. understandingwar.org/...

x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - AUG 30



49:75 🇷🇺/🇺🇦 added by @oryxspioenkop 🇳🇱 - 30-day average down to 1.7x



May include older losses/corrections



VISUALLY CONFIRMED:

2.8x losses to date ➡

1.7x during 2023 counteroffensive ⬇

1.7x 30-day average ⬇



📈 https://t.co/VTQVImTimi pic.twitter.com/3lCMlgwPmo — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 [email protected] (@ragnarbjartur) August 30, 2023

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on August 30 and did not make any confirmed advances. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Novoyehorivka (16km southwest of Svatove) and Bilohorivka (13km south of Kreminna).[28] Ukrainian Eastern Grouping of Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that the most intense sector of the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line is near Raihorodka (13km west of Svatove) and Kovalivka (12km southwest of Svatove), where Russian forces are conducting armored assaults.[29] understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Ukrainian military officials reported that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on Bakhmut’s southern flank and continued to advance as of August 30.[35] Ukrainian Eastern Grouping of Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Ukrainian forces are gradually advancing despite Russian counterattacks.[36] Syrskyi added that the most intense engagements are near Bakhmut, Kurdyumivka (12km southwest of Bakhmut), Yahidne (directly north of Bakhmut), and Andriivka (9km southwest of Bakhmut). understandingwar.org/... Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes) Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border and reportedly advanced on August 30. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced in the direction of Volodyne (13km south of Velyka Novosilka), and that Russian forces had to retreat from several heights in the area due to the threat of a tactical encirclement.[43] Other Russian milbloggers and Russian “Vostok” Battalion Commander Alexander Khodakovsky claimed that Ukrainian forces are increasing offensive activity on the Pryyutne-Staromayorske (8-18km south of Velyka Novosilka) line.[44] understandingwar.org/...

x Russian repair crews are still working on the Crimean Bridge after Ukraine struck the site in July.



A structure for construction equipment and new barriers to guard against naval drones are visible in the latest imagery. pic.twitter.com/esKGUzOX3z — Brady Africk (@bradyafr) August 30, 2023

x Ukraine’s National Security Council met today with President Zelenskyy stating one of the focuses was the continued crackdown on corruption by Ukrainian officials. pic.twitter.com/z2mHlAc3qU — Sarah Ashton-Cirillo (Ukrainian TDF Media) (@SarahAshtonLV) August 30, 2023

Comparatively, there is much to be optimistic about in Ukraine’s fight against Russia. But as the grinding attrition on Ukraine’s southern front demonstrates, Kyiv faces many challenges before the entire country can be liberated. Perhaps the greatest one is that the West, although it has provided substantial support, lacks a coherent Ukraine strategy. Given that this war will likely continue into 2024, and potentially even longer, the United States and Europe need to come up with one. They need to figure out how to better harness their physical and intellectual resources to support Ukraine now, over the coming winter, and in the coming years so that Kyiv can achieve a just and durable victory. To that end, the United States and NATO need to make clear that their explicit goal is for Ukraine to defeat Russia’s forces in Ukraine—and to silence Russia’s global narrative. They then need to provide Ukraine with standardized equipment and enhanced individual and collective training. They need to give Kyiv more mine-clearing equipment and help it develop new tactics to push through Russian defenses. Doing so is the best way of ensuring that Ukraine’s fight for freedom ends with an unambiguous victory. x “The United States & NATO need to make clear that their goal is for Ukraine to defeat Russia’s forces in Ukraine. Doing so is the best way of ensuring that Ukraine’s fight ends with an unambiguous victory.” My latest at @ForeignAffairs https://t.co/gNMEdV2IY3 — Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) August 30, 2023 The West must therefore accept that this will be a long war. Many generations have flirted with the notion that wars between large, populous, and technologically savvy states can be short. At the time each began, for example, analysts argued that World War I, World War II, the Korean War, and the Iraq war would be brief, only to be proved incorrect. The same will be true with today’s conflict. It will take time to continue enhancing Ukraine’s ground, air, naval, cyber, industrial, and information capabilities so the country can prevail over Russia. Although the Russians have made many strategic and tactical errors in this war, they have also learned and adapted. As Oleksandr Syrsky—the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces—put it, the Russians “are not idiots.” Kyiv will need many months to defeat and eject them from the approximately 18 percent of Ukraine they illegally occupy. The West is now engaged in a generational struggle against big, ruthless, and wealthy authoritarian regimes. In accepting that this will be a long war, the West should make explicit that its goal is a Ukrainian victory achieved through a Russian defeat. By committing to support Ukraine for the duration of the conflict, the West can undermine Putin’s efforts to outlast Ukraine’s patrons. This commitment also provides certainty to donor countries, which can scale up production and engage in necessary research and development for counter-drone and counter-mine endeavors. www.foreignaffairs.com/...

x Looking forward to watching Sean Penn’s documentary on Russia’s full-scale of invasion of Ukraine.



Also curious to see what @VladDavidzon and the Penn-crew were up to together.



The documentary is out in less than 2 weeks. pic.twitter.com/5EQGECDUue — Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) August 30, 2023

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