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Ukraine Invasion Day 553: Russian vulnerabilities in Zaporizhia Oblast but also near Estonia? [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-08-29

Drone warfare picks up with four Il-76 Transport aircraft damaged in an attack on Pskov Air Base, 700 kilometers away from the Ukraine border. Russian media write that a total of 15 drones attacked the airport. Odds are this attack originated from Estonia or Latvia.

x A cheerful night in many ru cities. Tula, Bryansk, Pskov. Chickens come home to roost.#StandWithUkraine️ pic.twitter.com/lqMMclZtaa — olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) August 29, 2023

x In the past few hours, reports have emerged of strikes conducted in multiple regions across Russia and occupied Crimea. Today’s attacks are a demonstration of the evolving sophistication and capability of Ukraine’s conduct of strike operations.https://t.co/btY4xHDF3z pic.twitter.com/37pOEvfz8v — Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) August 30, 2023 The full scale of the losses and damage is yet to become known, but it appears that it was one of the most daring and effective Ukrainian attacks of this kind so far. In the past few hours, reports have emerged of strikes conducted in multiple regions across Russia and occupied Crimea. Today’s attacks are a demonstration of the evolving sophistication and capability of Ukraine’s conduct of strike operations. The Ukrainians are not only conducting strikes on an expanding list of targets but doing it at longer range. [...] Long range strike has been a key evolution for the Ukrainians since the beginning of the Russian invasion. While this has principally been founded on ground-based rocket launchers, armed drones, cruise missiles from the UK and France (and hopefully soon from Germany), and uncrewed maritime strike vessels have also expanded the reach of the Ukrainian Armed Forces since February 2022. This is a logical next step. These long-range strikes are not just military operations, but a political necessity. [...] Perhaps the most important impact of these long-range rocket launchers is that they permitted the Ukrainians – after a bloody campaign in the Donbas in mid 2022 - to return to fighting the Russians at a distance. This was a critical Ukrainian adaptation in the east, because the Russians had changed tactics to concentrate their forces in single large, high-attrition offensive. The Russians used their advantage in firepower in the Donbas and forced the Ukrainians into an attritional battle for the Donbas. The introduction of HIMARS changed the battlefield calculus in the fight for Ukraine. mickryan.substack.com/... attacks within Russia

x Day 552. Russia has concentrated over 100,000 troops in the Kupiansk-Lyman direction of the front in Kharkiv Oblast and Luhansk Oblast. Zelenskyy says he wants elections in 2024: billions and observers in trenches needed.https://t.co/5REd6OdgLy — Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) August 29, 2023

Ukrainian forces advanced near Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast and Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 29. Geolocated footage published on August 29 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced south of Bakhmut and about five kilometers southeast of Robotyne.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) directions.[2] Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Oleksandr Shtupun reported on August 28 that Ukrainian forces continued to secure positions in Robotyne and are demining the area.[3] Shtupun reported that Ukrainian forces could bring more troops to the Robotyne area and would have greater opportunities for maneuver.[4] Shtupun noted that Robotyne is near the highway to Tokmak, an important Russian ground line of communication (GLOC).[5] understandingwar.org/...

#1 Ukraine is better at OPSEC than Russia, so yes, they probably do conceal a small number of losses.

#2 Russia is losing far more equipment per day than Ukraine according to all OSINT sources.

The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that the Kremlin is currently focused on promoting five main information operations against Ukraine, all of which ISW has observed. The GUR reported on August 29 that the Russian Presidential Administration held a meeting on August 25 to approve the specific narratives that Russian media should promote in the information space.[33] The Russian narratives include claims that Ukraine is conducting mass mobilization regardless of age, gender, or health;

claims that Ukraine’s Western partners are disappointed in Ukraine‘s prospects for victory;

claims that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is failing;

claims that the Ukrainian government is completely corrupt and is not fighting corruption and;

claims that Russian authorities provide good living standards and conditions in occupied Ukraine.[34] Russian First Deputy Presidential Chief of Staff Sergey Kiriyenko and Russian media representatives reportedly attended the meeting. ISW has observed all five false narratives in the Russian information space.[35] Key Takeaways: Ukrainian forces advanced near Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast and Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 29.

Russian sources continued to express concerns over Russian vulnerabilities in eastern and western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and reported Wagner logistics and security head Valery Chekalov were buried on August 29 in St. Petersburg in separate cemeteries, likely to prevent the creation of a single pilgrimage site that would establish the deceased Wagner members as martyrs.

Russian milbloggers accused the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) for the fifth consecutive day of attempting to conceal concerns over the mistreatment of a Southern Military District (SMD) brigade operating in occupied Kherson Oblast.

These milblogger persistent complaints are likely an attempt to spark command changes that may favor Russian Airborne Forces Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, who reportedly oversees Russian forces in southern Ukraine.

The Russian MoD may be reverting to more limited coverage of the war in Ukraine while attempting to censor complaints along the frontline and reports of Ukrainian advances.

The United States State Department announced a new military aid package for Ukraine on August 29.

The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that the Kremlin is currently focused on promoting five main information operations against Ukraine, all of which ISW has observed.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border area but did not make confirmed advances.

The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported on August 29 that the Russian MoD is still unlikely to meet its targets for volunteer recruitment, despite offering incentives such as high salaries and additional social benefits.

Ukrainian sources reported that occupation authorities continue to forcibly deport Ukrainian children from occupied Ukraine to Russia. understandingwar.org/...

x Salary perks lure Russians to join the invasion 🇺🇦with privates promised 195,000 rubles (about $2040) monthly, while junior ranks serving in🇺🇦get over 200,000 rubles (about $2100) per month, equating to 2.7 times the average salary in🇷🇺.https://t.co/JpKD5oEHeX — Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) August 29, 2023

x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - AUG 29



■ Engagements close to average, 🇷🇺 strikes well below

■ Most landbased equipment & vehicle losses this year

■ Double-digit vehicle, artillery, APV, tanks & special equipment losses

■ Troop losses also >7-day average



📈 https://t.co/S4WsegweF7 pic.twitter.com/2ye0OmOUvm — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 [email protected] (@ragnarbjartur) August 29, 2023

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and reportedly advanced on August 29. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations in the Kupyansk and Lyman (west of Kreminna) directions, particularly near Novoyehorivka (15km southwest of Svatove) and Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna).[36] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces advanced near Synkivka (8km northeast of Kupyansk), Petropavlivka (7km east of Kupyansk), Stepova Novoselivka (18km southeast of Kupyansk), Kyslivka (20km southeast of Kupyansk), and Kotlyarivka (22km southeast of Kupyansk).[37] A Russian news aggregator claimed that Russian forces captured a position near Synkivka.[38] Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and reportedly advanced on August 29. understandingwar.org/... understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations near Bakhmut on August 29 and advanced. Geolocated footage published on August 29 shows that Ukrainian forces have advanced south of Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut).[43] Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Ukrainian forces are advancing in unspecified areas in the Bakhmut direction.[44] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continue to conduct offensive operations south of Bakhmut.[45] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continue to attack near Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut).[46] understandingwar.org/... understandingwar.org/... Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes) Russian and Ukrainian forces continued positional battles on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border, with neither side making new territorial gains in the area on August 29. Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov claimed that positional battles are ongoing south of Velyka Novosilka,... Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin claimed that Russian forces are repelling Ukrainian attempts to gain a foothold on the Staromayorske-Urozhaine line - 8km southeast and 8km south of Velyka Novosilka, respectively.[56] Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Oleksandr Shtupun reported that Russian forces intensified airstrikes on Staromayorske in an effort to reduce Ukrainian offensive potential.[57] The Russian “Vostok” Battalion - which had previously lost its positions in Urozhaine due to lack of reinforcements - claimed that Ukrainian forces intensively shelled the unit’s positions around Novodonetske (12km southeast of Velyka Novosilka), resulting in casualties.[58] Geolocated footage showed elements of the Russian 30th Artillery Brigade (36th Combined Arms Army, Eastern Military District) shelling Ukrainian forces north of Novodonetske.[59] understandingwar.org/...

x THE BEACH PARTY IS OVER: @Gerashchenko_en reports that Russian authorities plan the mobilization of 30,000 Crimean residents. An additional 10,000 locals will be drafted into the Russian military. Expect traffic delays on the outbound lanes of the Kerch Bridge. pic.twitter.com/zJaCm2ONCB — Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) August 29, 2023

"We are moving along the southern flank there. We have already reached many dominant heights, and the enemy is trapped there, because they cannot leave Bakhmut and cannot move fully within the city,"

x Impressive thread was done by the @Black_BirdGroup about defenses in the south. In relation to this subject, I'd like to add additional insights and context. My intention is not to critique their presented report, but to emphasize crucial details that need to be added. 🧵Thread pic.twitter.com/ZkYrRjO9Ab — Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) August 29, 2023 2/ Frequently, I see analysts focusing on visible defenses. This could foster the perception that the first defensive line is where fortifications are visible through satellite imagery, based on the presence of features like dragon's teeth, trenches, or anti-tank ditches. 3/ In my perspective, this tendency can be attributed to the Streetlight effect - an observational bias wherein people exclusively search where it's easiest to look. In the context of satellite imagery, this translates to focusing on only visible defense structures. x 5/ In this short timelapse video spanning from May to August, I've highlighted fortified zones that mappers often chart. However, by looking at damages it's evident that the true theater of combat was across all tree lines visible in the area. pic.twitter.com/25EsI49HAo — Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) August 29, 2023 6/ Which brings me to the point where I contest the definition of the first defense line by looking at anti-tank trench with pyramids, considering that there were dozens and dozens of manned tree lines with defense positions which were already destroyed or captured by our forces 7/ This distinction holds significant weight, as statements such as "Ukrainian forces haven't reached the first line of defense" could be misleading. In reality, our forces have gained control over numerous tree lines that constitute major defensive formations. This distinction holds significant weight, as statements such as "Ukrainian forces haven't reached the first line of defense" could be misleading. 8/ Ultimately, the destruction of enemy forces and assets positioned within these tree lines carries greater significance than obstacles like dragon's teeth and AT ditches, which can be circumvented in under 20 minutes when the enemy is suppressed or lacks the resources to resist x 10/ P.S.: I believe the main battle is ongoing, leading to the deployment of russian strategic reserves. This implies we should avoid statements like "Ukraine hasn't reached the first defense line," even though they might eventually retreat to the "Surovikin line." — Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) August 29, 2023 • • •

x Russians lost a rare 9S36M radar unit of a Buk-M3 air defense system by a HIMARS strike. The unit price is around $40 million and not many of these vehicles, which have been introduced in 2015, have been manufactured.



Source: https://t.co/7olDbutchz#Ukraine pic.twitter.com/19fMSz67NR — (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) August 29, 2023

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/29/2190381/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-553-Russian-vulnerabilities-in-Zaporizhia-Oblast-but-also-near-Estonia

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