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Ukraine Invasion Day 552: breaching Surovikin Line [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-08-28

Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces may intend to resume a wider campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure in the fall of 2023, but assessed Russia likely has not replenished its missile stocks to sustain a campaign on the scale of the winter 2022-2023 strikes. Ukrainian officials assessed that any upcoming Russian strike campaign may employ new tactics that use fewer missiles and more drones.

Ukrainian officials formally acknowledged that Ukrainian forces had liberated Robotyne amid continued Ukrainian advances in western Zaporizhia Oblast and near Bakhmut. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported on August 28 that Ukrainian forces have liberated Robotyne, achieved unspecified successes southeast of Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) and south of Mala Tokmachka (7km southeast of Orikhiv), and are advancing in the directions of Novodanylivka (4km south of Orikhiv), Novopokropivka (15km south of Orikhiv), Mala Tokmachka, and Ocheretuvate (25km southwest of Orikhiv). [1] Heat anomalies from NASA FIRMS/VIIRS sensors and Russian claims of Ukrainian advances likely indicate that Ukrainian forces advanced near Verbove. [2] Malyar also stated that Ukrainian forces pushed Russian forces out of positions east of Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) and in the center of the settlement and have made unspecified progress near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut). [3] Malyar reported that Ukrainian forces continue offensive operations in the southern direction, which she specified is the main direction of Ukrainian offensive operations. [4] Malyar’s statement is consistent with the scale of Ukrainian offensive operations that ISW has observed in southern and eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian forces are currently conducting two operational efforts in southern Ukraine in western Zaporizhia Oblast and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and Malyar did not indicate one effort as the main offensive direction. www.understandingwar.org/…

x Russia vs Ukraine - Battle map of 3 months of war in less than 2 minutes. pic.twitter.com/R4N9cQQHYY — Epic Maps 🗺️ (@Locati0ns) August 28, 2023

Key Takeaways: Ukrainian officials formally acknowledged that Ukrainian forces liberated Robotyne amid continued Ukrainian advances in western Zaporizhia Oblast and near Bakhmut.

The Russian military command continues to expend relatively elite Russian airborne forces by deploying these troops to defend vulnerable positions against Ukrainian counteroffensives.

A Ukrainian intelligence official indicated that Russian forces may have marginally replenished their stocks of high-precision missiles through conservation in the summer of 2023.

Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces may intend to resume a wider campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure in the fall of 2023, but assessed Russia likely has not replenished its missile stocks to sustain a campaign on the scale of the winter 2022-2023 strikes.

Ukrainian officials assessed that any upcoming Russian strike campaign may employ new tactics that use fewer missiles and more drones.

Russian milbloggers continued to criticize the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) for ignoring ultranationalists’ complaints over the mistreatment of a Southern Military District (SMD) brigade operating in the Kherson direction.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in western Donetsk, and did not make any confirmed advances.

Russian lawmakers and the Russian information space expressed varied opinions about a proposed Russian State Duma bill that would deprive individuals of their acquired Russian citizenship for evading military registration and mobilization.

The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on August 28 that partisans created an explosion at the barracks of a Chechen “Akhmat-1” Rosgvardia riot police (OMON) unit in Enerhodar in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast. www.understandingwar.org/...

x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - AUG 28



19:10 🇷🇺/🇺🇦 added by @Rebel44CZ 🇨🇿 (20:10 after corrections)



Last update in a while - Jakub J. going on vacation



VISUALLY CONFIRMED:

2.8x losses to date ➡

1.8x during 2023 counteroffensive ➡

2.1x 30-day average ➡



📈 https://t.co/9ZMQhU6ulm pic.twitter.com/RSepQT533l — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 [email protected] (@ragnarbjartur) August 28, 2023

A Ukrainian intelligence official indicated that Russian forces may have marginally replenished their stocks of high-precision missiles through conservation in the summer of 2023. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Spokesperson Vadym Skibitskyi stated on August 28 that Russian forces have a total of 585 missiles left in their stocks that have a range of more than 500km. [10] Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov last provided official Ukrainian figures on Russian missile stocks in early January 2023 in the closing months of the Russian strike campaign that targeted critical infrastructure from roughly October 2022 to March 2023. [11] Skibitskyi offered new figures for Russian missile stocks, compared with Reznikov’s January 2023 figures as follows: 270 Iskander ballistic and cruise missiles (+126 from January)

140 sea-based Kalibr cruise missiles (+81 from January)

Roughly 100 Kh-101/Kh-55/Kh-555 cruise missiles (-18 from January)

Roughly 75 Kinzhal ballistic missiles (+22 from January)

150 Kh-22/32 missiles (-12 from January). [12] It is unclear if these figures are estimates or exact amounts, but they nevertheless suggest that Ukrainian intelligence assesses that Russian forces have been able to marginally replenish their stocks of high precision missiles since the end of the larger Russian air campaign in the fall and winter of 2022. Russian forces launched a new air campaign in May 2023 focused on maintaining a more regular pace of strikes against Ukraine with fewer missiles, and Skibitskyi suggested that this allowed Russian forces to replenish their stocks. [13] Ukrainian officials have previously reported that Russia is able to produce roughly a hundred missiles across various types per month, and this has likely allowed Russian forces to either maintain or marginally replenish their stocks during the summer air campaign. [14] Skibitskyi stated that Russian defense enterprises are struggling to produce several dozens of specific types of missiles a month due to foreign component shortages. [15] www.understandingwar.org/...

Victory in Robotyn means the beginning of the battle for Melitopol and Berdiansk - Focus The Ukrainian Armed Forces have the opportunity to surround Tokmak, a powerful logistics hub of the Russian army. According to the publication, this breakthrough could mean the beginning of the battle for two large cities - Melitopol and Berdiansk.o counter the Ukrainian offensive in the south, the Russians are forced to transfer elite units from other parts of the front.

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) Russian forces attacked Ukrainian positions on the Kupyansk-Svatove line on August 28, and reportedly made limited localized advances on the frontline…. A Russian news aggregator claimed that Russian forces are continuing to clear positions near Synkivka and Petropavlivka, and are advancing in the Kupyansk direction. [33] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) similarly claimed that elements of the Russian Western Grouping of Forces seized an unspecified Ukrainian position in the Kupyansk direction. [34]… Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Russian forces are mining positions along Belgorod Oblast’s border with Ukraine and are continuing to look for weak spots in Ukrainian defenses. [37] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Ilya Yevlash stated that 45,000 Russian personnel are currently operating in the Kupyansk direction. [38] www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations near Bakhmut and advanced on August 28. Malyar reported that Ukrainian forces pushed Russian forces out of positions east of Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) and in the center of the settlement and are continuing to advance along Bakhmut’s southern flank. [47] Malyar also reported that Ukrainian forces are making unspecified progress near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut). [48] Malyar reported that Ukrainian forces have liberated a total of 44 square kilometers in the Bakhmut direction, including 1 square kilometer in the last week. [49] Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Klishchiivka. [50] Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Bakhmut on August 28 and reportedly advanced. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Klishchiivka. [52] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to restore lost positions near Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Klishchiivka. [53] A Russian milblogger claimed on August 27 that Russian forces made unspecified gains near Berkhivka (6km northwest of Bakhmut) over the past week. [54] Russian sources claimed on August 27 and 28 that Russian forces counterattacked near Klishchiivka and conducted offensive operations near Orikhovo-Vasylivka. [55] A Russian source claimed that Russian forces attacked near Dubovo-Vasylivka (6km northwest of Bakhmut) and Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut). [56] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Ilya Yevlash reported that Russian forces are trying to restore lost positions in the Bakhmut direction, especially on the southern flank. [57] Yevlash stated that Russian forces are committing reserves without proper training to the Bakhmut area. [58] Yevlash added that Russian forces first commit convict personnel from various unspecified private military companies (PMCs) to conduct assaults without artillery support or heavy equipment, followed by better trained personnel with protection. [59] www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes) Geolocated footage published on August 27 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently made marginal gains north of Shevchenko (40km southwest of Donetsk City) in western Donetsk Oblast. [65] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported on August 28 that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Vuhledar (30km southwest of Donetsk City) in western Donetsk Oblast. [66] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Malyar announced on August 28 that Ukrainian forces have liberated Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) in western Zaporizhia Oblast. [72] Malyar stated that Ukrainian forces had liberated the settlement as a matter of fact during a television broadcast and not as a formal announcement, which Ukrainian officials have typically issued for previously liberated settlements. [73] Ukrainian officials may have meant for a video of Ukrainian forces raising a flag in Robotyne on August 23 to act as an announcement of the settlement’s liberation. [74] Russian sources denied Malyar’s announcement and continue to claim that Russian forces maintain positions on the southern outskirts of Robotyne. [75]

x A year and a half ago, Russia undertook a large-scale invasion of Ukraine. Since that time, Ukraine has taken back more than half of the territory then lost. If we don't let them down, the Ukrainians will win this war, and bring us a more secure world. — Timothy Snyder (@TimothyDSnyder) August 28, 2023

x They had been waiting for this dance for 6.5 months



In Feb. 2022, Timur joined the 🇺🇦Army. A year later, he got severely injured. The doctors saved his legs & he promised his wife, Olia, a dance on her birthday. He kept his word.

📹@margulovao via ТікТок pic.twitter.com/Ly22kECyXj — Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) August 28, 2023

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/28/2190134/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-552-breaching-Surovikin-Line

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