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Kansas State Senate Districts: SD 3, SD 9, SD 19, SD 20, SD 22 [1]

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Date: 2023-08-28

Today, I am looking at five more Kansas senate districts: SD 3, SD 9, SD 19, SD 20, and SD 22.

Kansas Senate District 3

KS SD 3 is located just south of Topeka, encompassing a large swarth of rural territory, and includes communities such as Carbondale and Osage City. Interestingly, this post-2024 iteration of SD 3 has very little overlap with the district’s pre-2024 iteration but does have quite a bit of overlap with the pre-2024 iteration of SD 19. The pre-2024 iteration of SD 19 has been a competitive, if not somewhat GOP-leaning district, at the presidential level. The district supported Mitt Romney by a razor-thin margin of less than half a percentage point (less than 100 votes) and Donald Trump by about 9 points in 2016 and by between 5 and 6 points in 2020. SD 19 was actually Dem-held through 2020, with Democrat Anthony Hensley easily being reelected by double-digit margins in both 2012 and 2016. However, Republican Rick Kloos managed to flip the seat in 2020, as he narrowly defeated Hensley by 2 points. The new SD 3 is several points redder than SD 9, as Trump would have carried the former district in 2020 by a little less than 12 points. Kloos will presumably be the incumbent (for SD 3) this cycle, as his home community of Berryton is in the district. Kloos should be fairly safe, given how much more favorable the new boundaries are to the GOP, but the district is still worth keeping an eye on, given its ancestral-Democratic nature. In addition, the Democrats also have a credible candidate running in former Army Veteran and newspaper publisher Dena Sattler. I’m classifying SD 3 as Likely Republican.

Kansas Senate District 9

KS SD 9 is located just east of Lawrence and contains communities such as Eudora and Baldwin City. This post-2024 iteration of SD 9 has considerable overlap with both its pre-2024 iteration, as well as the pre-2024 iteration of SD 3. Under the pre-2024 boundaries, SD 3 has been competitive at the presidential level, with Romney and Trump (in both 2016 and 2020) carrying it by single-digit margins, while SD 9 was much redder to begin with, but trended heavily towards the Dems in recent years, having gone from easily supporting to Romney by between 22 and 23 points to supporting Trump by a comparatively narrower margin of about 13 points in 2016 and a very close 2.5-point margin in 2020, which interestingly is roughly the same as his 2020 margin in SD 3. Democrat Tom Holland has managed to hold on SD 3, despite the district’s somewhat Republican lean, being reelected by a little more than 6 points in 2012 and by narrow 2- to 3-point margins in 2016 and 2020. Republican Julia Lynn easily held onto SD 9 in 2012 and 2016, winning by over 20 points in both cases. However, the 2020 race for SD 9 was quite competitive, with Republican Beverly Gossage winning the open seat by about 4.5 points, after defeating Lynn in the GOP primary. The new (2024) boundaries have made SD 9 considerably redder, with Trump’s 2020 margin expanding to nearly 13 points. Both Holland and Gossage seem to reside in the new district, as both of their hometowns are contained in the district, setting up a potential incumbent vs incumbent match. Gossage should be heavily favored, given how red the new district is, but the district is still worth keeping eye on, given that Holland’s previous performances have been fairly impressive. I’m classifying SD 9 as Likely Republican. Note that to preserve the current partisan balance of the chamber, I’m considering the district to be Dem-held, making it a likely Republican flip as opposed to a likely Republican hold.

Kansas Senate District 19

KS SD 19 encompasses much of Topeka (in particular, the eastern parts of the city) and nearby communities such as Tecumseh, which is east of the city. As discussed in the SD 3 paragraph above, SD 19 was somewhat GOP-leaning under the pre-2024 boundaries. However, the 2024 boundaries have made the district solidly Democratic, as Joe Biden would have now carried it by a large 30.5-point margin. In addition, the district should be open this cycle, as Republican incumbent Rick Kloos was drawn out of the district (as was previously noted in the SD 3 paragraph). SD 19 should be a guaranteed pick-up opportunity for Dems this cycle. I’m classifying the district as Safe Democrat.

Kansas Senate District 20

KS SD 20 is home to western Topeka, as well as suburban and rural areas to the south and west, such as Cullen Village, Dover, and Newbury. SD 20 moved several points to left under the pre-2024 boundaries, with Romney carrying the district by nearly 10 points, Trump carrying it by just over 6 points in 2016, and Biden narrowly carrying it by a percentage point. None of the district’s previous senate races were particularly competitive, with Republican Vicki Schmidt easily winning reelection by over 30 points in both 2012 and 2016, and Republican Brenda Dietrich winning the open seat in 2020 by a narrower, but still decent margin of nearly 14 points, after defeating Schmidt in the GOP primary. It should be noted that Dietrich seems to be relatively moderate, being the only Republican senator to vote against the transgender sports ban a few months ago. Under the 2024 boundaries, SD 20 has become a few points redder, as Trump would have now carried the district in 2020 by about 4 points. Dietrich should be heavily favored, but the district does have the potential to be competitive, given the close 2020 presidential result. I’m classifying SD 20 as Likely Republican (but could potentially see shifting the district to Lean Republican if a more conservative Republican ends up being the nominee).

Kansas Senate District 22

KS SD 22 is home to the community of Manhattan. SD 22 swung to the left under the pre-2024 boundaries, going from supporting Romney by about 19 points to supporting Trump by a little more than 13 points in 2016 and by a fairly close margin of nearly 6 points in 2020. The 2012 senate race was very competitive, with Democrat Tom Hawk narrowly winning the open seat by between 1 and 2 points, despite Romney simultaneously winning it by a large margin. Hawk ran unopposed in 2016 and narrowly won reelection by between 2 and 3 points in 2020, again outperforming the top of the ticket. Note that Democrat Usha Reddi now currently represents the district, having been appointed to replace Hawk, who resigned at the start of this year. SD 22 has become quite a bit bluer under the 2024 boundaries, as Biden would have now carried the district by between 5 and 6 points. Reddi should have an edge this cycle, given that the district supported Biden and that previous Dems have won the seat in a less favorable iteration, but it seems reasonable to expect a competitive race, especially considering Reddi has never been tested before. I’m classifying SD 22 as Lean Democrat.

Thanks to cnalysis (for the 2020 presidential results of the new districts) and Daily Kos Elections (for the presidential results of the pre-2024 districts).

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/28/2190081/-Kansas-State-Senate-Districts-SD-3-SD-9-SD-19-SD-20-SD-22

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