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Ukraine Invasion Day 551: UKR forces have penetrated Russian defensive positions in Robotyne Sector [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-08-27

The composition of Russian defensive positions in southern Ukraine and the ambiguities about how Russian forces are manning and equipping them continues to obscure how the next phase of fighting will transpire.

Four Russian Su-30 fighters and a MiG-29 aircraft, as well as two Pantsyr air defense systems and S-300 radars were hit with attack drones. Nearly all reached their targets, with only three intercepted by Russian air defense, said the source.

This is Switzerland taking Russia's side. This is Switzerland effectively arming aggressor Russia by stopping defender Ukraine from arming itself. The Swiss government will not allow almost 100 Leopard I tanks stored in Italy to be sold to Ukraine. https://t.co/9nnl2cncng pic.twitter.com/MYkvQEXWDq

The composition of Russian defensive positions in southern Ukraine and the ambiguities about how Russian forces are manning and equipping them continues to obscure how the next phase of fighting will transpire. ISW recently assessed that a lack of observed uncommitted Russian forces in the area may suggest that a subsequent series of Russian defensive positions may be less heavily defended than the positions that Ukrainian forces already penetrated to the north, although this remains unclear.[x] Russian forces have reportedly conducted additional lateral transfers to the Robotyne area with elements of the 76th Guards Air Assault (VDV) Division from the Kreminna area in Luhansk Oblast and are also reportedly redeploying unspecified elements from the Kherson direction to the area.[xi] Russian forces committed elements of the 7th VDV Division immediately to combat after laterally transferring them to the Robotyne area in early August, although the Russian command could decide to commit these new reinforcements to strengthen the next series of defensive positions south of the current Ukrainian advance.[xii] Russian forces committed a considerable amount of materiel, effort, and manpower to hold the series of defensive positions that Ukrainian forces are currently penetrating, and it is unclear if Russian forces will retain the advantages they have held if they cannot commit the same level of resources and personnel to these next layers of defense.[xiii] The next Russian defensive layer will, nevertheless, very likely pose significant challenges for the Ukrainian advance.

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction but did not make any confirmed gains on August 27. Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Ilya Yevlash stated that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction, where there were 14 combat engagements during the past day.[xxxviii]...Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov claimed that Ukrainian forces are continuing to attack Chechen ”Akhmat” Spetsnaz elements holding positions near Klishchiivka.[xl]

Russian forces continued counterattacks near Bakhmut on August 27 but did not advance. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut) and Klishchiivka.[xli] ... Yevlash stated that Russian forces in the Bakhmut area typically conduct assaults with designated assault detachments, sometimes without artillery support, that are then followed by regular Russian personnel.[xliv]

A Ukrainian commander operating in the Bakhmut area stated on August 24 that Russian forces transferred “fresh” elements of unspecified newly created units and elements of units from unspecified Russian-occupied areas in Ukraine to the Bakhmut direction.[xlvi] ISW has previously observed Russian milbloggers describe likely tactical rotations in place as rotations.[xlvii] The milblogger is likely not describing rotations wherein Russian forces would replace a committed unit with a previously uncommitted unit or formation so that the initial unit could rest and reconstitute, as Russian forces likely lack the required operational reserves to do so.[xlviii] ISW has not observed evidence of additional Russian units or formations recently arriving in the Bakhmut direction. Ukrainian forces have recently conducted rotations in other sectors of the front and likely possess operational reserves to conduct further rotations.[xlix]

Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area on August 27 and reportedly advanced. Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Oleksandr Shtupun reported on August 27 that Ukrainian forces advanced in the Urozhaine area (9km south of Velyka Novosilka) and were successful near Staromayorske (9km south of Velyka Novosilka) in the Berdyansk direction (western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area).[liv]...

Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 27 and reportedly advanced. Shtupun reported that Ukrainian forces are advancing in the directions of Novoprokopivka (13km south of Orikhiv), Mala Tokmachka (9km southeast of Orikhiv), and Ocheretuvate (25km southeast of Orikhiv).[lvi] Shtupun also stated that Ukrainian forces advanced near Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) and were successful in the Melitopol direction (western Zaporizhia Oblast).[lvii] Russian sources claimed on August 26 and 27 that Ukrainian forces attacked near Kopani (12km southwest of Orikhiv) and advanced near Robotyne and toward Verbove (18km southwest of Orikhiv).[lviii] The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian assaults near Robotyne and near Balka Uspenivka (11km southeast of Orikhiv).[lix]

Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/27/2190051/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-551-forces-have-penetrated-Russian-defensive-positions-in-Robotyne-Sector

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