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Tropical Storm Idalia headed for Florida [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-08-27

Tropical storm Idalia, currently off the coast near Cancun, Mexico, is expected to strengthen to a Cat 2 or 3 Hurricane and head towards the Florida panhandle on Tuesday/Wednesday. Conditions are ripe for intensification over the next 24-72 hours over the warm waters of and moist atmosphere over the Gulf of Mexico.

There is some uncertainty about the exact path and storm intensity but counties along the gulf coast are already on alert. Now is the time to get prepared.

Here is some info on the coming storm -

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS from www.nhc.noaa.gov/...?

INIT 27/2100Z 20.1N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 28/0600Z 20.5N 85.3W 45 KT 50 MPH

24H 28/1800Z 21.7N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

36H 29/0600Z 23.4N 84.9W 65 KT 75 MPH

48H 29/1800Z 25.6N 84.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

60H 30/0600Z 28.7N 83.7W 85 KT 100 MPH

72H 30/1800Z 31.3N 81.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND

96H 31/1800Z 34.5N 76.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER

120H 01/1800Z 35.0N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

Some models at www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/… indicate Cat 3 to near Cat 4 Hurricane wind intensity before landfall.

Satellite Imagery shows an angry storm picking up steam -

x Tropical Storm #Idalia is strengthening. Watch as the low-level circulation in the center is gradually obscured by increasing convection. pic.twitter.com/ke5UXgq5mn — Zoom Earth (@zoom_earth) August 27, 2023

Some animation of Idalia and Franklin from the Met Office -

x Tropical storm #Idalia and hurricane #Franklin are both close watching points over the coming days ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/hhSQmtlKnW — Met Office (@metoffice) August 27, 2023

Idalia has a lot of warm waters (31C) to pick up strength from -

The Hurricane Hunter aircraft made several flights into Idalia today. Here is what is looks like from the cockpit of the aircraft to fly into a Tropical Storm. This is a video from 2 days ago of a flight into TS Franklin.

x Here is a look at what it’s like to fly into a tropical storm. This is last night’s flight into #TropicalStormFranklin pic.twitter.com/CT3vIpaOpB — Hurricane Hunters (@53rdWRS) August 25, 2023

The 2023 Hurricane Season

The 2023 hurricane season may have looked tame so far, but the hurricane season really ramps up in late August into September. See graph below.

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was expected to be relatively mild due to the onset of El Nino. But the extra warm waters in the Atlantic led NOAA to revise its hurricane forecast a week ago as follows —

Likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season = 60% (was 30% in May forecast)

Likelihood of near-normal activity = 25% (was 40% in May forecast)

Here is the updated outlook for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season -

Sea Surface Temperatures

Sea surface temperatures have been unusually high this year, after all a lot of global warming heat ends up in the oceans. These high water temperatures are conducive to hurricane formation, while El Nino and trade winds tend to dampen them.

Below is a graph of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly (deviation from average) for the past 32 years. This year’s graph soars way above the rest.

Let’s keep an eye on these storms and make preparations ahead of time.

Let’s also keep educating the public about climate change and global warming, that it is caused by human activity and increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, most of it contributed by fossils fuels, and what we are seeing this year in terms of heat waves, wildfires, floods and droughts are a mild version of what lies ahead.

Let’s keep neutralizing the massive disinformation campaign launched by the republican party and their paymasters — the fossil fuel companies, the billionaire club and various state actors.

And let’s keep emphasizing that if republicans take control of Washington, then we can pretty much kiss earth goodbye, since these monsters have plans ready to undo the progress we have made so far on renewal energy and to turn government into a servant of the fossil fuel industry.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/27/2190021/-Tropical-Storm-Idalia-headed-for-Florida

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