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The Dnipro crossing is a microcosm of what Ukraine is hoping to do across the whole front [1]

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Date: 2023-08-27

The Russians like static fighting. They prefer relatively slow movement and clear responsibilities for units. This is primarily due to not allowing significant initiative at lower ranks, standardized units, a push logistics system, and degraded transport options. They focus on grinding the opponent down with artillery pounding away before simple infantry rushes.

In contrast, the Ukrainians would prefer to make this fight more mobile and maneuver based. They are attempting to get Russian forces moving back and forth, both locally and across the entire front. Recent raids in Crimea by special forces are less about the local destruction of Russian resources (though that is still important) and more about forcing the Russians to continue to stretch their resources and move them to cover unexpected areas.

Over the past few weeks there has been a series of actions in the Kherson region with small Ukrainian units crossing the river at different points. The greater goal here is to threaten a larger crossing of Ukrainian forces to divert Russian units away from the Tokmak area. Ukraine can’t really brute force its way across without risking a significant loss of troops if the Russians defend with sufficient forces. But if the Russians don’t properly staff the area, Ukraine can cross in force. Ukraine’s supply funneled over the river will always limit their total amount of forces so there is a hard upper limit of what they can do. But the Russians also can’t ignore this area without endangering critical supply lines.

With that in mind, Reporting From Ukraine (RFU) has a good summary of recent actions in the area. I encourage you to check it out and support them. (I recently bought a hat from their store, but haven’t gotten it yet or I would post a pic).

The basic movement has been Ukraine crossing the river to take and hold a part of Kozachi Laheri. As RFU points out, this crossing has forced a response by Russian leadership to move more troops and resources in. However, it appears those resources came from other parts of the river defense, and not from Crimea or Tokmak. In response, Ukraine attritted the moving reinforcements, held them in place for a bit and then retreated. While holding the Russians there, the Ukrainians shifted their offensive focus to the areas Russia pulled their resources from.

I wanted to highlight this rotation because without reinforcements from farther away (which they will probably get, so don’t get too excited), this area would be getting close to collapse. Ukraine is using superior movement along the line to get Russian forces out of position and then hammering the Russians in the weakest places. This movement operation is available mostly because the flooding from the dam being blown wiped away much of the prepared defensive positions, giving Ukraine the ability to raid less fortified positions.

Further east, Ukraine had initially made 4 different pushes at Vasylivka, Robotyne (area), Urozhaine (area) and Bakhmut. This is both using and not using NATO concepts. NATO prefers a single avenue of advance to focus resources and force to break through one line and not over stress supply. However, NATO assessment of the Russian BTG (while not still organized as such, Russian forces are basically operating smaller versions of the BTG) is the defeat it through mobility. Get the Russians moving both locally and operationally and their lack organization and mobility will get them out of position and make them less effective. It is my guess (and only a guess) that the initial 4 general pushes was an attempt to get Russian forces moving between the 4 different pushes.

The western most push near Vasylivka was abandoned first, and I think the Bakhmut push was a a feint. Due to the minefields the Ukrainians don’t seem to have have forced as much Russian movement as they originally hoped, at least across the initial lines of advance. However, now that there is more movement in and around Robotyne, they are finally achieving the movement that Russia is weaker at. Russia is moving forces in to counter. But as they move more and more units around Russia becomes more in danger of having resources out of position, creating more and more weaknesses along the line.

As Ukraine continues to see success and movement at Robotyne I expect them to continue the Robotyne advance as long as they continue to push forward at acceptable losses (acceptable to Ukrainian leadership). However, I would not be surprised to see refreshed action at either Urozhaine or Bakhmut should Russia overcommit to Robotyne. I would also not count out something close to Donetsk City. Every time the focus shifts to a different area it will further stress Russia. Combined with the pressure at the Dnipro and now also defending against raids in Crimea, Ukraine is hoping for Russia to make a fatal move and leaving a critical hole in their lines somewhere.

As always, these are my thoughts and nothing more.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/27/2189928/-The-Dnipro-crossing-is-a-microcosm-of-what-Ukraine-is-hoping-to-do-across-the-whole-front

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