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Ukraine Invasion Day 549: Prigozhin crash's black boxes retrieved [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-08-25

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City axis.

Never before has someone so central to Russia’s ruling establishment been killed in a suspected state-sponsored assassination, said Mikhail Vinogradov, a Moscow political analyst.

“Everyone’s afraid,” Konstantin Remchukov, a Moscow newspaper editor with ties to the Kremlin, said of the reaction among the Russian elite to the plane crash Wednesday that Western officials theorize was caused by an explosion on board. “It’s just that everyone sees that anything is possible.”

But with his June rebellion, Mr. Prigozhin threatened something even more sensitive: Mr. Putin’s own hold on power. After the crash of Mr. Prigozhin’s plane on Wednesday, the Kremlin appears to be sending the message that no degree of effectiveness and achievement can protect someone from punishment for violating Mr. Putin’s loyalty.

Mr. Prigozhin may have been brutally effective, throwing tens of thousands of his fighters into the maw of the battle for Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, tying up Ukrainian forces in the process and hobbling Kyiv’s ability to stage a counteroffensive. His internet “troll farm” helped the Kremlin interfere in the 2016 American presidential election, while his mercenary empire helped Russia exert influence across Africa and the Middle East.

BLACK BOX MYSTERY: Russia says flight recorders have been recovered from the scene of the jet crash the killed Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin. https://t.co/CXZiYJ3egP pic.twitter.com/qnLiRJSz48

​ Russian President Vladimir Putin’s August 24 remarks about Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death established the Kremlin-approved narrative on the issue, and Russian government officials, Kremlin affiliates, and the Russian information space continued to toe this line on August 25. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov lambasted suggestions and claims that Putin was involved in the death of Prigozhin, calling them “an absolute lie.”[1] Peskov stated that there are no official forensic details on Prigozhin’s death yet and claimed that Putin had not met with Prigozhin in the Kremlin in recent days.[2] Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov mirrored some of Putin’s language about Wagner and Prigozhin by stating that Prigozhin “undoubtedly made a great contribution” to the Russian war effort in Ukraine.[3] The Russian information space largely followed the Kremlin-approved narrative and continues to refrain from linking the Kremlin to the plane crash.[4]

Russian intelligence is operating a systematic program to launder pro-Kremlin propaganda through private relationships between Russian operatives and unwitting US and Western targets, according to newly declassified US intelligence https://t.co/UHn2vZPXyC

Ukrainian defenders are achieving notable tactical and positional gains on the southern flank of Bakhmut (around Klishchiyivka, Andriyivka and Kurdyumivka), south from Urozhanye in the Berdyans’k direction, and south from Robotyne in the Melitopol’ direction.

Russia redeploys its newly formed brigades to the Kupiansk and Lyman sectors of the eastern front, Commander of Ukraine's Land Forces says Due to significant losses in the Kupiansk and Lyman sectors, Russia is regrouping its forces, the Commander said. https://t.co/ACTU0SFrPT

⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - AUG 25 ■ 🇺🇦 strikes & engangements up, 🇷🇺 strikes down ■ Troop losses above 7-day average, equipment below ■ Double-digit artillery, vehicle, drone & APV losses ■ Artillery & drones above 7-day average 📈 https://t.co/hWwwf6dpnn pic.twitter.com/oXyEYev48B

A Ukrainian-made Neptune anti-ship missile was used to destroy a radar module of Russia’s S-400 air defense system in occupied Crimea on Aug. 23. https://t.co/ThJTk8PKQG

​

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on August 25 and advanced. Geolocated footage published on August 25 indicates that Russian forces advanced west of Kovalivka (14km southwest of Svatove).[42] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Novoyehorivka (17km southwest of Svatove).[43] Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Russian forces are transferring newly formed brigades and divisions to the Kupyansk and Lyman directions after a month of fierce fighting and significant Russian losses in order to resume active offensive operations in these directions.[44] ISW has not observed evidence of new Russian units or formations arriving in this sector of the front, however.

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut area but did not make any claimed or confirmed advances on August 25. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations south of Bakhmut.[48] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces attacked near Kurdyumivka (14km southwest of Bakhmut) and Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut).[49] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian ground attacks near Zaliznyanske (12km northwest of Bakhmut) and Klishchiivka.[50] A Ukrainian commander reported on August 24 that Russian forces are transferring “fresh” units to the Bakhmut direction from other areas of the front due to heavy fighting in the Bakhmut area.[51] ISW has not yet observed visual confirmation of this report; ISW last observed new Russian units transferring to the Bakhmut area in early-to-mid-July, including the 98th Airborne (VDV) Division, Akhmat Spetsnaz units, and an unspecified BARS (Russian Combat Reserve) unit.[52]

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that elements of the Russian Eastern Grouping of Forces repelled a Ukrainian assault near Solodke (17km southwest of Donetsk City) in western Donetsk Oblast on August 25.[56]

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Vuhledar (30km southwest of Donetsk City) in western Donetsk Oblast on August 25.[57]

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 25 and reportedly advanced as Russian milbloggers expressed concern over a lack of reinforcements and troop rotations in the area. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces achieved unspecified successes in the directions of the Novodanylivka-Novopokropivka (5-13km south of Orikhiv) line and the Mala Tokmachka-Ocheretuvate (9-25km southeast of Orikhiv) line.[25]

Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful missile and drone strike against targets in Odesa Oblast overnight on August 24-25. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces launched two Kh-59 missiles, two Kalibr missiles, and one Shahed-136/131 drone and that Ukrainian air defenses shot down all five projectiles.[40] The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that the Russian missiles targeted Odesa City and a port in Odesa Oblast.[41]

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/25/2189667/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-549-Prigozhin-crash-s-black-boxes-retrieved

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