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Kansas State Senate Districts: SD 8, SD 10, SD 11, SD 23, SD 35 [1]

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Date: 2023-08-24

Next up in my state legislative series is the Kansas State Senate. Currently, the balance in the chamber is 28R – 11D – 1I, with the one Independent being a former Republican. Treating the one Independent as a Republican (as he still seems to vote with the party), the Democrats need a net gain of ten seats for control of the chamber, with a net gain of nine seats producing a tied chamber and a power sharing agreement. However, as the case with the state’s lower chamber, the primary goal for Dems is to simply break the GOP supermajority, for which Dems only need a net gain of three seats. (Again, I’m treating the Independent as a Republican.) Breaking the supermajority would be significant, as it would allow Democratic Governor Laura Kelly to successfully use her veto power.

This chamber is only up in presidential years, meaning that the 2024 election will be the first time that the post-redistricting boundaries will be used for these seats. Note that I am using 2024 to delineate between the pre- and post-redistricting boundaries, as based on address lookups, it doesn’t seem that the new boundaries have actually gone into effect yet. In the case of KS, election results for the pre-2024 districts are fairly useful as the district numbers on the post-2024 map roughly correspond to the district numbers on the pre-2024 map. As per usual, I only plan on looking at non-competitive seats (“Safe Republican” or “Safe Democrat”) if they are projected to flip. I am assuming, unless stated otherwise, that the incumbents are running for reelection, though redistricting does complicate this a bit, as some incumbents may be drawn into different districts. With regards to classifying the districts (i.e. Dem-held or Republican-held), I have chosen to classify them in a manner as to preserve the current partisan balance of the chamber (so there are 11 Dem-held districts). Also, any districts that solely feature Dem incumbents are Dem-held and vice-versa with Republicans.

Today, I am looking at five senate districts: SD 8, SD 10, SD 11, SD 23, and SD 25, all based entirely (or almost entirely) in Johnson County, a Kansas City suburb.

Kansas Senate District 8

KS SD 8 is based in Overland Park. Like much of the Kansas City suburbs, SD 8 has trended heavily towards the Dems under the pre-2024 boundaries, having gone from supporting Mitt Romney by nearly 16 points to supporting Hillary Clinton by a narrower 1-point margin and Joe Biden by a larger margin of between 13 and 14 points. Republican Jim Denning managed to hold onto the seat in 2016, winning reelection by a fairly competitive margin of about 5.5 points, after having first won the seat in 2012 by a slightly larger margin of between 8 and 9 points. However, Democrat Cindy Holscher was able to flip the district in 2020, winning the open seat by just under 9 points. SD 8 has become a few points bluer under the 2024 boundaries, with Biden’s margin expanding to nearly 19 points. Holscher should be fairly safe, given the progress Dems have made here (and that the new boundaries are being more favorable), but the district does have the potential to be competitive. I’m classifying SD 8 as Likely Democrat, but could see possibly moving it to Safe Democrat.

Kansas Senate District 10

KS SD 10 encompasses the community of Shawnee. Under the pre-2024 boundaries, SD 11 has moved a good deal to the left at the presidential level, with Romney carrying the district by about 15.5 points, Donald Trump carrying it by a narrower margin of under 4 points in 2016, and Biden carrying it by about 6.5 points. The district featured very competitive senate races in both 2016 and 2020, with Republican incumbent Mary Pilcher-Cook winning the former by between 2 and 3 points, and Republican Mike Thompson, who had been appointed to replace Pilcher-Cook, winning the latter by just under 4 points. SD 10 has become a few points redder under the 2024 boundaries, with Biden’s margin shrinking to a little more than a percentage point. The district should be a competitive again this cycle and a strong pick-up opportunity for Dems (even with slightly less favorable boundaries). I’m classifying SD 10 as a Toss Up.

Kansas Senate District 11

KS SD 11 is located on the state’s eastern border with Missouri and encompasses eastern parts of Overland Park, as well as nearby communities such as Stilwell. Under the pre-2024 boundaries, SD 11 moved strongly to left at the presidential level, going from supporting Romney by a very large margin of over 29 points to supporting Trump in 2016 by a considerably closer margin of between 5 and 6 points and Biden by about 6.5 points. The 2016 senate race wasn’t at all competitive, with Republican John Skubal, who had defeated the incumbent Republican in the primary, easily winning the open seat by about 30 points, but the 2020 senate race was fairly close, with Republican Kellie Warren winning the open seat by about 5.5 points. (She defeated Skubal in the primary.) SD 10 has become slightly redder under the 2024 boundaries, with Biden’s margin shrinking to about a percentage point. The district should be competitive this cycle and even with slightly redder boundaries, Democrats have a decent shot at flipping it, given how favorable the trends have been and the overall increase in polarization. I’m classifying SD 11 as a Toss Up.

Kansas Senate District 23

KS SD 23 contains parts of Olathe, as well as areas to the south, such as Spring Hill. Again, SD 23 swung heavily to the left at the presidential level under the pre-2024 boundaries, having gone from easily supporting Romney by over 23 points to supporting Trump in 2016 by a narrower margin of under 13 points to narrowly supporting Biden by between 1 and 2 points. The 2016 senate race was not competitive, with Republican incumbent Robert Olson easily winning by about 21 points, only a few points lower than his 26-point reelection in 2012. However, the 2020 senate race was quite competitive, with Olson being reelected by just over 6 points. SD 23 has become slightly redder under the 2024 boundaries, as Trump would have now narrowly carried the district in 2020 by nearly 3 points. The seat is also open this cycle, as Olson is opting not to run for reelection. The district should be competitive again, especially given the lack of an incumbent. I’m classifying SD 23 as a Toss Up. (If Olson were running again, I would probably have given him the edge.)

Kansas Senate District 35

KS SD 35 contains parts of Overland Park and Olathe and is located in-between SD 11 and SD 23. Note that this post-2024 iteration of SD 35 bears no resemblance to district’s pre-2024 iteration, with the latter being a solidly Republican rural district located near the center of the state that easily supported Trump by 46 points. The district was reapportioned to Johnson County (presumably) due to population growth. The new seat is very competitive, as Trump would have narrowly carried it by about 2 points in 2020, and seems to be trending blue, with all of district’s precincts having swung to the left at the presidential level between 2016 and 2020. In addition, the district seems to be open, as no incumbents appear to be residing in the new district. SD 35 should be highly competitive, considering the close presidential result and the lack of an incumbent. I’m classifying the district as a Toss Up.

Thanks to cnalysis (for the 2020 presidential results of the new districts), Daily Kos Elections (for the presidential results of the pre-2024 districts), and New York Times (for precinct-level data).

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/24/2189273/-Kansas-State-Senate-Districts-SD-8-SD-10-SD-11-SD-23-SD-35

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