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Ukraine Invasion Day 548: one less carbon footprint, Prigozhin as Judge Crater [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2023-08-23
Single Plane Theory: Wagner has two such jets in its inventory and earlier post-mutiny reports had Prigozhin appearing in multiple countries. Is Prigozhin like Generalissimo Francisco Franco, or does he resemble a missing person like Judge Crater or super-villain like Aleksandr Dugin whose daughter got blown up in a car swap? /s
Keir Giles, a Russia expert with the international affairs think-tank Chatham House, had urged caution about reports of Prigozhin’s death. He said “multiple individuals have changed their name to Yevgeniy Prigozhin, as part of his efforts to obfuscate his travels.” “Let’s not be surprised if he pops up shortly in a new video from Africa,” Giles said. www.dailykos.com/… Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and founder Dmitry Utkin reportedly died after Russian forces shot down an aircraft transporting senior Wagner commanders over Tver Oblast. The Russian Federal Aviation Agency (Rosaviatsiya) reported on August 23 that all the passengers – Yevgeny Prigozhin, Dmitry Utkin, Sergei Propustin, Yevgeny Makaryan, Alexander Totmin, Valery Chekalov, Nikolai Matyuseev – died in the crash along with all three crew members. [1] Russian opposition outlet Dossier reported that Chekalov, who is under US sanctions for transferring munitions to Russia and has acted on behalf of Prigozhin, oversaw Wagner transport logistics and “civilian” projects abroad. [2] A Russian insider source claimed that Chekalov also served as head of Wagner’s security services, though another source refuted this claim. [3] Dossier also reported that several other passengers joined Wagner between 2015 and 2017 and fought in Syria, although their current positions are unclear. [4] Russian sources amplified footage apparently showing a Russian missile striking an aircraft carrying Prigozhin, Utkin, and other Wagner commanders and the wreckage of the aircraft. [5] An insider source claimed that two S-300 missiles shot down the aircraft. [6] Flight tracking data for an Embraer Legacy 600 jet (registration number RA-02795) registered to the Wagner Group stopped after 6:11pm Moscow time while over Tver Oblast. [7] Russian sources claimed that a second Wagner Group-owned Embraer jet (registration number RA-02748) departed Moscow but turned around and landed at Ostafyevo airport in Moscow around the time of the strike. [8] Flight tracking data showed that this second aircraft arrived in St Petersburg at 6:27pm and flew back to Moscow 20 minutes later arriving at 8:02pm, however. [9] www.understandingwar.org/...
x “Prigozhin’s private plane mysteriously fell from the sky this afternoon, following an explosion that, whether a bomb or a rocket, could only have been organized by the state.” And that means by Vladimir Putin.
https://t.co/rKxYns4xIA — Laurence Tribe 🇺🇦 ⚖️ (@tribelaw) August 23, 2023
x 🚨 Vladimir Osechkin, with sources in the FSB known as the #WindofChange, is 99.999% certain that Prigozhin was indeed assassinated by Putin today. More details to come. Given that today's Russian security services leak like a sieve, it's quite likely we will learn the truth.
https://t.co/JlLPbSgcBd — Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) August 23, 2023
The single bullet theory is the prevailing explanation for the trajectory of the bullet that struck President John F. Kennedy and Governor John Connally of Texas on November 22, 1963. The theory holds that the bullet entered Kennedy's back, exited his neck, then struck Connally in his right shoulder, exited his chest, and lodged in his wrist. However, there have been many challenges to the single bullet theory, most notably by the late conspiracy theorist and author Mark Lane. Lane argued that the bullet could not have traveled in the trajectory described by the Warren Commission, and that there must have been multiple bullets fired. There is no consensus among experts on whether the single bullet theory is accurate. Some experts believe that the evidence does support the theory, while others believe that the evidence is inconclusive. One of the main pieces of evidence cited in support of the single bullet theory is the fact that the bullet that was recovered from Connally's wrist was the same caliber and type as the bullets that were found at the scene of the assassination. However, this evidence is not conclusive, as it is possible that the bullet could have been switched or tampered with. Another piece of evidence cited in support of the single bullet theory is the testimony of several witnesses who said they saw a single bullet strike Kennedy and Connally. However, eyewitness testimony is notoriously unreliable, and it is possible that these witnesses were mistaken. Ultimately, the question of whether the single bullet theory is accurate is a matter of debate. There is no clear consensus among experts, and the evidence is inconclusive. In addition to the challenges raised by Lane, there have been other criticisms of the single bullet theory. For example, some experts have argued that the bullet would have had to have been traveling at an unrealistically high velocity in order to have traveled in the trajectory described by the Warren Commission. Others have argued that the bullet would have had to have caused more damage to Connally's body than it did. Despite these criticisms, the single bullet theory remains the prevailing explanation for the trajectory of the bullet that struck Kennedy and Connally. However, it is important to note that the theory is not without its flaws, and there is still some debate about its accuracy. bard.google.com
(h/t @marlosan)
Meduza, August 23, 2023: An anonymous telegram channel «VChK-OGPU» claims that the commander of PMC Wagner Dmitry Utkin was on board the business jet that crashed in the Tver region.
Utkin is the «right-hand man» of Yevgeny Prigozhin, his call sign «Wagner» served as a name for PMC Wagner. In the Tver region near the village of Kuzhenkino, a private airplane Embraer Legacy, flying from Moscow to St. Petersburg, went down. There were 10 people on board, including three crew members. According to preliminary information, all those on board were killed. The founder of the PMC Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin was among the passengers of the crashed plane, Rosaviatsia reported. The Grey Zone telegram channel associated with Wagner's PMC claims that the business jet that crashed in the Tver region was «shot down by air defense fire in the Bologovsky district of the Tver region». x Major reason I doubt #Prigozhindeath story is because I followed his plane online from June 23 to July 18 when it went dark. I presume it was still flying but he disabled its transponder. So we are to believe that the day he's going to die, he turns it on? Sure. Here's the track. pic.twitter.com/22OyN8yexf — Tim Hogan 浩勤 (@TimInHonolulu) August 23, 2023 “deeply immersed in … tragedy” Alexander Dugin @Agdchan We have not realised that we have moved from a laughing society to a people deeply immersed in the element of tragedy. Some have already recognised it starkly within themselves, others are on the verge of facing it. Sorrow, sadness, grief, deafening anger: this is the register of states of a normal person who has entered the structures of war; but also a strong faith, a quiet hope, a maturing will, a growing mind, a tempered spirit. The very fact of the death of Wagner's heroes is far more fundamental than the reasons, manipulations and speculations surrounding it. There is no need to get bogged down in details and versions. We are at war and war means death. Prigozhin entered the war wholeheartedly, he dedicated himself to it, no one can escape war and he realised this before anyone else and did not resist. He acted like a man and he is like a man. Death will come for everyone sooner or later. It is useless to shout: why me? There is always a reason. 4:30 PM · Aug 23, 2023
x Russia will always be Russia pic.twitter.com/W2W8IuNOrj — Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) August 23, 2023
mriyareport.org on X/Twitter (live Wednesday) @MalcolmNance I don't know. All I know is this right. The fact that we're discussing it is terrifying. Right, Geopolitically, this is the one toy that shouldn't come on the table. And for the last year, 17 months, Putin's main advocates in Russian state TV have been shouting that they should use a nuke somewhere. Well, it's quite possible somebody could decide to, you know, terminate Putin's command permanently by gaining control of an air launched ballistic air launch cruise missile with a tactical warhead on it. Next time he's at the cursed National Command post and nuke it. Right, the what's the only difference between what the effect is, is whether somebody puts a pencil through his eye coming down a hallway, puts a bullet in the back of his head, or nukes him and all of his senior staff and command and control of Russia's nuclear arsenal and takes it for themselves. alright then what's the only difference between what the effect is is whether somebody puts a pencil through his eye coming down a hallway puts a bullet in the back of his head or nukes him and all of his senior staff and command and control of russia's nuclear arsenal and takes it for themselves You know, so we I'm simplifying it because it's not as complex as people think. It's only as good as the operators who are who answer the command call and whether they will actually execute the orders. @ChuckPfarrer Yeah it's a you know it it it is actually frightening and I I'm actually with you Malcolm having been in the some of the same circles you are. I don't think anyone who has been there like we have comes away thinking nuclear weapons or anything that that is good right. And I always, I always I always liken it to you know having a gun in your night stand at home you may be anti you know anti you might be very pro gun control you don't like guns. That you've got one in your night stand, you know, there as the last resort. But Putin is the kind of next door neighbor that takes his gun out of the night stand, goes in the front yard and waves it over his head, yelling all the time. Right. So it is a, it's a, you know, this this is an extraordinary situation and I just don't think it's over. I don't think that Putin has actually consolidated his position as much as you might. Key Takeaways: Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and founder Dmitry Utkin reportedly died after Russian forces shot down an aircraft transporting senior Wagner commanders over Tver Oblast.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the Kremlin have been destroying the Wagner private military company (PMC) and weakening Prigozhin’s authority since the rebellion – and the assassination of Wagner’s top leadership was likely the final step to eliminate Wagner as an independent organization.
Prigozhin was likely attempting to counter the Russian MoD’s and the Kremlin’s destruction of Wagner and Wagner’s future remains uncertain.
Putin almost certainly ordered the Russian military command to shoot down Prigozhin’s plane.
Putin's almost certain order for the Russian MoD to shoot down Prigozhin’s plane is likely a public attempt to reassert his dominance and exact vengeance for the humiliation that the Wagner Group’s armed rebellion on June 24 caused Putin and the Russian MoD.
Specific individuals who may have planned to oppose Putin, the Kremlin, or the MoD have likely taken note of Prigozhin’s ultimate fate and other recent measures to reassert the Kremlin’s backing for the senior Russian military leadership.
The Kremlin appears to be setting conditions to deflect overt responsibility for Prigozhin’s assassination away from Putin and the Russian military.
Further tactically significant Ukrainian gains in and around Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast are widening the Ukrainian breach of Russian defensive lines in the area and threatening Russian secondary lines of defense.
Ukrainian forces likely struck a Russian S-400 air defense system in Crimea on August 23.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, in the Bakhmut area, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on August 23 and did not make any confirmed advances. www.understandingwar.org/... x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - AUG 23
■ Strikes on both sides & engagements above 7-day average
■ Troop & equipment losses above 7-day average
■ Double-digit artillery, vehicle, APV, drone & tank losses
■ 6x double-digit tank losses this month
📈
https://t.co/50OhlcMIZc pic.twitter.com/p0QABE4iWi — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦
[email protected] (@ragnarbjartur) August 23, 2023
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on August 23 but did not make any confirmed gains. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Novoyehorivka (16km southwest of Svatove). [61] Russian Western Grouping of Forces Press Officer Yaroslav Yakimkin claimed that Russian forces continued offensive operations near Vilshana (13km northeast of Kupyansk) and captured a Ukrainian stronghold and two Ukrainian observation posts. [62] A Russian milblogger claimed that unspecified Russian volunteer battalions are conducting assaults near Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna) and are semi-encircling Ukrainian forces in the settlement, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of Russian positions in the area consistent with a threat of encirclement. [63] www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut area on August 23, but did not advance. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations south of Bakhmut. [66] The Russian MoD claimed that elements of the Russian Southern Grouping of Forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Kurdyumivka (13km southwest of Bakhmut) and Mayorske (21km southwest of Bakhmut). [67] www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes) Ukrainian forces reportedly continued limited offensive operations in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area and did not make any confirmed or claimed advances on August 23. … The Russian “Vostok” Battalion which is operating in the area claimed that Ukrainian forces attempted to find a gap in Russian defensive lines near Novodonetske (12km southeast of Velyka Novosilka). [78] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations and made tactically significant gains in the western Zaporizhia Oblast area on August 23. Geolocated footage published on August 22 shows that Ukrainian forces advanced southeast of Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) and northwest Verbove (18km southeast of Orikhiv). [79] Geolocated footage published on August 23 by Ukrainian sources, including Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valery Zaluzhnyi, shows that Ukrainian forces erected a flag in southern Robotyne, indicating that Russian forces likely have limited remaining positions in the village. [80] The Ukrainian General Staff reported unspecified Ukrainian successes in the directions of Novodanylivka (5km south of Orikhiv) and Novopokropivka (13km southeast of Orikhiv). [81] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/...
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