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Ukraine Invasion Day 546 & 547*: "giving one's opinion is too costly for any purse to bear" [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-08-22

This is posted on midnight +2 minutes (00:02h EST) of 23 August 2023, Day 547* but constructs today’s lede with google’s AI tool, Bard’s take on the 546th day of the Ukraine Invasion’s military action

Today, August 22, 2023, is the 546th day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The war has caused a humanitarian crisis in Ukraine, with millions of people displaced from their homes and thousands of civilians killed. The United Nations estimates that over 10 million people have fled their homes in Ukraine since the start of the war, and over 5 million have crossed the border into neighboring countries. The war has also had a significant impact on the global economy, causing energy prices to rise and disrupting supply chains. On the 546th day of the war, the situation in Ukraine remains fluid. Russian forces have made some gains in the eastern Donbas region, but Ukrainian forces have continued to resist. There have been reports of heavy fighting in the city of Severodonetsk, which is seen as a key strategic objective for Russia. The United States and its allies have continued to provide military and financial assistance to Ukraine, and have imposed sanctions on Russia in an effort to pressure it to end the war. However, there is no sign that Russia is willing to back down. The war in Ukraine is a major geopolitical crisis with far-reaching implications. It is too early to say how the war will end, but it is clear that it will have a lasting impact on Ukraine, Russia, and the world. bard.google.com

JASSMs can be launched from cargo planes as well.

Ukraine has requested JASSM missiles for the F-16, Forbes reports. These are two-ton, precision air-to-ground cruise missiles designed to destroy bunkers, fortifications, bridges, and air defense systems. The range of these missiles is 370 to 980 kilometers, depending on the version. Launch platform: B-1 Lancer, B-2 Spirit, B-52 Stratofortress, F-15E Strike Eagle, F-16 Fighting Falcon, F/A-18 Hornet

Rapid Dragon: C-130, C-17 Ukrainian forces continued to make advances in and around Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast as of August 22 amid indications that Russian forces likely have a limited presence in the settlement. Geolocated footage published on August 21 and 22 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced in southeastern Robotyne and east of the settlement near Novopokrovka (13km southeast of Orikhiv).[1] The Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade published a video on August 22 showing its personnel successfully evacuating civilians from Robotyne while accompanied by Ukrainian journalists.[2] The 47th Mechanized Brigade stated that its personnel broke through multi-echelon Russian defensive lines near Robotyne and have entered the settlement.[3] The evacuations and the presence of Ukrainian journalists suggests that areas of Robotyne may be relatively secure due to diminished Russian positions in the settlement itself and the nearby area. Russian maximalist claims that Ukrainian forces only maintain positions on the very northern outskirts of the settlement are likely false given the footage and reporting from the 47th Brigade. Russian forces appear to be concentrating their limited available reinforcements from elsewhere in the theater in the Orikhiv direction in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Ukrainian military journalist Konstantin Mashovets reported that elements of the 108th Air Assault (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) deployed near Robotyne as of August 16 and near Novopokrovka as of August 20.[5] Elements of the 108th were deployed near the Antonivsky Bridge as of July 29, and the “Sokol” Volunteer Battalion of the 108th VDV Regiment was reportedly operating near Staromayorske and Urozhaine in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area as of August 14.[6] Elements of the 7th VDV Division’s 56th Regiment have likely been engaged in fighting in the immediate vicinity of Robotyne since early August.[7] Elements of the 7th VDV Division's 247th Regiment appear to be still operating south of Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, ...Elements of the 7th VDV Division's air assault regiments may be deployed across two axis as separate battalions and platoons, however. ISW previously assessed that the lateral redeployment of elements of the 7th VDV Division to the Robotyne area suggested that Ukrainian forces had severely degraded Russian forces in the area, and the possible commitment of elements of all three of its air assault regiments may suggest the further deterioration of the Russian situation in the area. www.understandingwar.org/...

The Ukrainian officer described the military situation in three main directions of the front. The hottest sector of the front today is the Luhansk direction, which includes part of the Kharkiv region. This is mainly the Kupyansk region, where, due to the short logistical distance (only 50 km to the Russian border), the Russians can easily and quickly supply military ammunition. The occupiers are trying to move along the entire Luhansk front from Kupyansk to Kreminna, but they are not having much success, because the Ukrainian troops are working very effectively in the active defense mode. This was told by the colonel of the reserve of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, military instructor pilot Roman Svitan. He noted that Ukrainian operational reserves from the Donetsk front were transferred to the Luhansk direction. They will “calm down” the Russians, and then return to work in the Donetsk direction, mainly in the Bakhmut area. charter97.org/…

Key Takeaways: Ukrainian forces continued to make advances in and around Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast as of August 22 amid indications that Russian forces likely have a limited presence in the settlement.

Russian forces appear to be concentrating their limited available reinforcements from elsewhere in the theater in the Orikhiv direction in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Ukrainian offensive operations in other sectors of the front remain important because they can fix Russian units in place and prevent further lateral reinforcements. Criticisms of continued Ukrainian efforts in other sectors and calls for Ukraine to concentrate all available reserves on a single axis are thus problematic.

The Ukrainian advance in the Robotyne area brings Ukrainian forces closer to launching operations against second lines of defense that may be relatively weaker than the first Russian defensive line in the area.

Russian forces appear concerned about recent Ukrainian advances in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated Russia’s unwillingness to renegotiate the Black Sea Grain Initiative until all of Russia’s extensive terms are met during the BRICS Business Forum in South Africa on August 22.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin may be trying to increase Wagner’s presence in Africa as part of an effort to maintain Wagner as a cohesive and independent organization.

A Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) delegation arrived in Libya on August 22, likely as part of the Russian MoD’s efforts to set conditions to possibly replace the Wagner Group with MoD-affiliated private military companies (PMCs).

The Kremlin is reportedly planning to cancel gubernatorial elections in the Republic of Khakassia in order to prevent a Russian veteran’s loss and ensure a United Russia victory, likely demonstrating the Kremlin’s concern over domestic support for the war and the fragility of its veneer of electoral legitimacy.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia on August 22 and advanced in certain areas.

Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations on at least two sectors of the front on August 22 and made advances near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Russian authorities continue their campaign of religious persecution in occupied Ukraine. www.understandingwar.org/...

Tu-22 Novogrod Oblast

x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - AUG 21



■ Strikes & engagements below average

■ Troop losses <500, equipment below average

■ Double-digit artillery, APV, vehicle & tank losses

■ ≈150 tanks this month so far

■ Oryx: 65:23 🇷🇺/🇺🇦, 30-day ratio rises to 1.7x



📈 https://t.co/X6cgM2Snjp pic.twitter.com/Sc6gGXtBdi — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 [email protected] (@ragnarbjartur) August 21, 2023

www.dailykos.com/… Jari’s look at Tokmak

www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on August 22 and advanced. Geolocated footage posted on August 22 indicates that Russian forces have advanced southwest of Vilshana (15km northeast of Kupyansk).[46] Russian Western Grouping of Forces Press Officer Yaroslav Yakimkin claimed that Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Vilshana.[47] ...The Russian source claimed that Russian forces have advanced from the Serebryanske forest area (10km southwest of Kreminna) towards the Siverskyi Donets River and are beginning operations to cross the river.[50] The source also claimed that Russian forces are continuing to advance from Dibrova (7km southwest of Kreminna) into the Serebryanske forest area towards Serebrianka (10km southwest of Kreminna), have entered Torske (15km west of Kreminna) where fighting is ongoing in the settlement itself, and are near the outskirts of Yampolivka (17km west of Kreminna). Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Ilya Yevlash reported that Russian forces have deployed more than 45,000 troops, 500 tanks, 500 infantry fighting vehicles, 300 artillery systems, and 150 multiple launch rocket systems in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions.[51] www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations around Bakhmut on August 22 and reportedly advanced. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continue to conduct offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction.[55] Russian forces appear concerned about recent Ukrainian advances in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Satellite imagery from November 2022, December 2022, and August 2023 shows that Russian forces have notably sped up the expansion of defensive fortifications near Chervonoselivka (38km southwest of Velyka Novosilka and 27km from the current frontline) in Zaporizhia Oblast over the last month.[17] Ukrainian Colonel Petro Chernyk stated that all conditions are set for Ukrainian forces to enter the Northern Azov region and “demolish“ Russian positions in southern Ukraine and occupied Crimea.[18] Chernyk stated that Russian forces are strengthening their positions on the Perekop Isthmus (around 160km north of Sevastopol) and are building three lines of defense in the area.[19] Chernyk suggested that Russian forces would not have built additional defenses if they were sure they could hold their positions on the Perekop Isthmus.[20] Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Major General Kyrylo Budanov stated that Russian forces have created four unspecified “groups” in Crimea in preparation for a Ukrainian counteroffensive and noted that this has never happened before.[21] The construction of additional defensive fortifications in Zaporizhia Oblast and on the Perekop Isthmus and the creation of four unspecified “groups” in Crimea may indicate that Russian forces are growing increasingly concerned about recent Ukrainian advances along the southern front. www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes) A Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast on August 22 but did not advance. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are conducting ongoing assaults near Pavlivka (30km southwest of Donetsk City) and Mykilske (27km southwest of Donetsk City).[63] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/...

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[1] Url: https://dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/22/2188936/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-546-amp-547-giving-one-s-opinion-is-too-costly-for-any-purse-to-bear

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