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Ukraine Invasion Day 542: continued offensive operations [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-08-18

It is premature to make assessments about the overall success of ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive operations occurring along several lines of advance toward several different apparent objectives.

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 18 and have reportedly advanced further near Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut, Berdyansk (Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area), and the Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) directions. [8] Geolocated footage published on August 17 and 18 indicate that Ukrainian forces maintain positions in northeastern Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv), from which Russian sources had previously claimed that Russian forces had expelled Ukrainian forces. [9] The footage confirms that recent Ukrainian advances in the Robotyne area have likely been tactically significant, and ISW previously assessed that such advances are likely reflective of a significant degradation of the Russian forces defending the area. [10] Geolocated footage published on August 18 also indicates that Ukrainian forces made marginal gains south of Urozhaine in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area. [13]

ISW has consistently assessed that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will be a protracted, non-linear series of operations, which will likely continue to occur in phases of differing tempos. [5] The Ukrainian counteroffensive is not a discrete set of scheduled operations, and current counteroffensive operations are likely setting more favorable conditions for larger significant operations. [6] ISW continues to assess that Ukrainian counteroffensive operations are significantly degrading defending Russian forces and that the overall degradation of the Russian defensive line creates opportunities for any Ukrainian breakthrough to be potentially operationally significant. [7]

Closing the Sakharov Center, arresting the head of the independent Golos election monitoring group, putting all democratic opposition leaders behind bars… Russia under Putin is fast becoming a gigantic jail… as it was under Stalin ! https://t.co/rtFIx5PLyH

Russians doing what they always do, after a loss, they always claim a similar loss for Ukraine. They lost a KA52 so they have to claim a SU-25 for Ukraine. Too bad for them I know how to Oryx. Pic1: RU telegram Pic2: Oryx https://t.co/Dy1ZmP9kdA https://t.co/pbmPzr2TxP pic.twitter.com/ifCIr3Pwce

195th sniper rifle! Help the snipers! They save the lives of thousands of soldiers! Now it's more important than ever! 1/2 pic.twitter.com/GDtafaxoMs

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast )

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and reportedly advanced on August 18. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Synkivka (8km northeast of Kupyansk), Kyslivka (20km southeast of Kupyansk), and Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna). [36] Ukrainian Luhansk Oblast Head Artem Lysohor reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance towards Bilohorivka on August 17 and that Russian forces are using hastily-prepared “Storm Z” units manned by convicts to probe Ukrainian defenses in this sector of the front. [37] Former Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) spokesperson Eduard Basurin claimed that Russian forces advanced along the Synkivka-Ivanivka line (up to 20km southeast of Kupyansk) and towards Petropavlivka (7km east of Kupyansk) on August 18. [38]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut on August 18 but did not advance. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations south of Bakhmut and entrenched themselves in new positions. [43] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian armored assault with artillery support near Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut). [44]

Russian forces conducted ground attacks near Bakhmut on August 18 but did not make any claimed or confirmed advances. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations northwest of Dubovo-Vasylivka (6km northwest of Bakhmut) and near Bohdanivka (6km northwest of Bakhmut) and Bila Hora (12km southwest of Bakhmut). [46] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces unsuccessfully counterattacked from Dubovo-Vasylivka in the direction of Bohdanivka. [47] Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov claimed that Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz elements continue to operate in the Klishchiivka direction and claimed that Russian forces maintain complete control over Klishchiivka. [48] The Russian MoD posted footage claiming to show elements of the Russian 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade (VDV) operating near Klishchiivka. [49]

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on August 18 but did not make any claimed or confirmed advances. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued to repel Russian advances near Marinka (on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City) and Krasnohorivka (directly west of Donetsk City). [50] The Russian MoD claimed that elements of the Russian Southern Grouping of Forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Avdiivka and Marinka. [51] Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on August 18 but did not make any confirmed advances. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Keramik (14km northeast of Avdiivka) and southeast and east of Novokalynove (13km northeast of Avdiivka). [52] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted offensive operations on Avdiivka’s northern flank in the direction of Keramik on August 17 and claimed that Russian forces captured unspecified Ukrainian positions in the area. [53]

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/18/2188149/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-542-continued-offensive-operations

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