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Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Trump's problem is the growing number of folks who won't vote for him [1]

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Date: 2023-08-18

Isaac Chotiner/The New Yorker:

The Benefits and Drawbacks to Charging Trump Like a Mobster Racketeering statutes allow prosecutors to arrange many characters and a broad set of allegations into a single narrative. Making the story cohere can be a challenge. To talk about the sprawling indictment, I recently spoke by phone with Caren Myers Morrison, a former Assistant U.S. Attorney in the Eastern District of New York who is currently an associate professor of law at Georgia State University. During our conversation, which has been edited for length and clarity, we discussed the advantages and disadvantages of bringing rico charges , whether Trump is likely to succeed if he tries to move the case to federal court, and why the sheer scope of this latest indictment may present a challenge to prosecutors.

Jennifer Rubin/The Washington Post:

Fani Willis puts violence front and center Right up front, the indictment handed down Monday by a grand jury in Atlanta alleges: Members of the enterprise, including several of the Defendants, falsely accused Fulton County election worker Ruby Freeman of committing election crimes in Fulton County, Georgia. These false accusations were repeated to Georgia legislators and other Georgia officials in an effort to persuade them to unlawfully change the outcome of the November 3, 2020, presidential election in favor of Donald Trump. In furtherance of this scheme, members of the enterprise traveled from out of state to harass Freeman, intimidate her, and solicit her to falsely confess to election crimes that she did not commit. The indictment describes defendants traveling to election worker Ruby Freeman’s home to mislead and intimidate her.

x For reference pic.twitter.com/DBYbEvQWky — Jordan Weissmann (@JHWeissmann) August 17, 2023

POLITICO:

Trump indictment forces a GOP reckoning on 2020 Trump’s news conference Monday will force the primary field to re-litigate 2020 once again. Trump announced on his social media site that he would be holding a “major news conference” on Monday where he’d present a detailed and “irrefutable report” on voter fraud from three years ago. The post had all the whiffs of a Four Seasons Total Landscaping moment. And it quickly transported the Republican Party right back to a conversation it studiously has tried to avoid for nearly three years.

No shocker there. Also no shocker is the opportunity for Trump to be mugshotted and fingerprinted the day of the GOP debate that he won’t attend. That way, everyone watches him.

The Associated Press:

Trump enjoys strong support among Republicans. The general election could be a different story Nearly two-thirds of Republicans — 63% — now say they want the former president to run again, according to new polling from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. That’s up slightly from the 55% who said the same in April when Trump began facing a series of criminal charges. Seven in 10 Republicans now have a favorable opinion of Trump, an uptick from the 60% who said so two months ago. But in a crucial warning sign for the former president and his supporters, Trump faces glaring vulnerabilities heading into a general election, with many Americans strongly dug in against him. While most Republicans — 74% — say they would support him in November 2024, 53% of Americans say they would definitely not support him if he is the nominee. Another 11% say they would probably not support him in November 2024.

x As we look to '24, a few things have changed since '20:

- Rs tried to overturn the election/ended Roe. Brand damage to Rs could be significant

- In 2022 Ds improved over '20 in AZ, CO, GA, MI, MN, NH, PA

- W/demo changes electorate 1-2 pts more D

- Ds '23 fundraising outpacing… https://t.co/PdeK5wIdn2 — Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) August 16, 2023

Jonathan V. Last/The Atlantic:

The Agony of Mike Pence Why does he think the people who wanted to kill him will vote for him? Here is a theory I cannot test, but which I believe to be true: If Mike Pence were to walk through the crowd at a Donald Trump rally—for instance, the recent giant event where 50,000 Trump supporters swamped the town of Pickens, South Carolina—he would need a security detail. He would not be safe without one, and he might not be safe with one either. In fact, I have a hard time believing that any Secret Service team would agree to go along with such an excursion. Enough Trump supporters hate Pence that much. By contrast, I believe Pence could safely walk through the crowd at a Joe Biden event—like his June 17 rally in Philadelphia—without any security. Some Biden supporters might make snide comments, but it seems equally possible that others might shake his hand and thank him for saving the republic on January 6, 2021.

Daniel Nichanian/Bolts magazine:

‘We Have a Right to Put It on the Ballot’: How Organizers Are Defending Direct Democracy Bolts invited three organizers in Arkansas, Idaho, and Ohio for a roundtable to discuss the attacks on ballot initiatives they are each fighting in their states, and lessons they’ve learned. Bolts this week gathered three organizers who have fought this dynamic in each of three states that are undergoing this dynamic: Ohio, Arkansas, and Idaho. Their meeting sparked a wide-ranging conversation about their shared frustrations and strategies. Mia Lewis, associate director of Common Cause Ohio, was active in the campaign to defeat Issue 1 this summer. Kwami Abdul-Bey, elections coordinator at the Arkansas Public Policy Panel, helped form a coalition to defeat a similar measure in Arkansas last year. As the co-founder of Reclaim Idaho, Luke Mayville launched the initiative to expand Medicaid in 2018 and he has since organized to defend the initiative process in Idaho.

x 🚨 NEW POLL: Two in three Americans say they would vote to protect the right to abortion in their state’s constitution if their state held a vote on the issue (64% would vote to protect abortion rights), including:



🔵 84% of Democrats

🟢 58% of independents

🔴 44% of Republicans pic.twitter.com/154gCAsaa5 — Navigator Research (@NavigatorSurvey) August 17, 2023

Magdi Jacobs, via Thread Reader:

I have a suspicion. Not a prediction. Or maybe it's a prediction but I won't frame it as such, because I like to be cautious. The basic fundamentals of American political life have shifted and will continue to shift into 2024. All in the Democrats' favor. It's Roe. It's the clear lunacy of the GOP. It's the conservative court making multiple anti-left decisions at once, thus tying these same decisions to the conservatives who appointed them. It's also climate. And then Generation Z. And how Gen Z interacts with all of the above. I'll write more about this later, but I think those who follow me do know I try to be cautious. I am still being cautious & I have felt this way for a while. The feeling becomes stronger. I believe I am right. The fundamentals are changing & it's of descriptive benefit to say so I almost think it has to do less w/ Trump indictments than it does w/ these interconnected things: 1. Dobbs, 2. climate change, 3. Generation Z's investment in both. And, for the first time in my lifetime, SCOTUS linking itself so incontrovertibly against several issues at once

I agree with Jacobs.

x New QPac poll has independents 20 points in favor of prosecuting Trump for charges around the 2020 election https://t.co/ho42491qpW pic.twitter.com/Om1p9pG58q — G Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) August 16, 2023

Will Bunch/Philadelphia Inquirer:

The young Honduran drowned in Greg Abbott’s Texas had a name: Norlan Bayardo Herrera We need to name the refugees needlessly killed by Texas' cruel border demagoguery. If I had waited on the American mainstream media to write about the human beings lost to the barbaric policies of the governor of the nation’s second-largest state, I would still be waiting. That is some serious journalistic malpractice. The young man who tried to cross the Rio Grande at a more dangerous, unguarded spot, and who was swept downstream by the currents, was a 20-year-old native of Honduras. He had a name — Norlan Bayardo Herrera — and like most refugees, he had a story to tell, if anyone had bothered to ask his survivors about it.

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