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Hurricane Hilary headed towards California (Updated) [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-08-17

Tropical storm Hurricane Hilary, currently off the southern coast of Mexico, is expected to strengthen to a Cat 3 4 Hurricane and head towards the California coast by Monday. Conditions are ripe for rapid intensification over the next 24 hours but it will weaken over colder waters when it gets closer to CA. Primary threats are coastal flooding and heavy rainfall across the southwest and along the Baja Peninsula. It is quite rare for a hurricane to hit CA, they typically veer off west.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS from www.nhc.noaa.gov/… — updated Thu late morning -

INIT 17/1500Z 15.5N 107.8W 75 KT 85 MPH

12H 18/0000Z 16.4N 109.4W 100 KT 115 MPH

24H 18/1200Z 17.6N 111.2W 115 KT 130 MPH

36H 19/0000Z 19.3N 112.7W 120 KT 140 MPH

48H 19/1200Z 21.2N 113.7W 115 KT 130 MPH

60H 20/0000Z 23.6N 114.4W 105 KT 120 MPH

72H 20/1200Z 26.6N 115.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

96H 21/1200Z 33.4N 116.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND

120H 22/1200Z 41.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

Track and Intensity forecasts. More tracks are now traversing inland CA than yesterday’s model runs.

Rainfall forecast estimates have gone up —

x Rainfall forecast estimates from Hilary have increased significantly with inland areas of Southern California potentially seeing 6-12" of rainfall. 📈🌧️



Hilary will not rapidly spin down over cooler water much at all. Instead, it will look/act like a fully tropical system on… pic.twitter.com/lxBsWemANM — Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) August 17, 2023

Satellite Imagery

x Tropical Storm #Hilary has formed offshore Mexico and expected to become a major hurricane while heading north and curving toward the Baja California Peninsula. Currently no watches or warnings in effect, but coastal impacts are likely followed by rain for the southwest U.S. pic.twitter.com/bz1UjxaNNA — UW-Madison CIMSS (@UWCIMSS) August 16, 2023

Tomer Berg’s analysis shows a very unusual scenario where Tropical Storm Hilary impacts southwest California, particularly the San Diego & Los Angeles metros, with direct impacts. He cautions that there is still a wide range of potential outcomes, forecast confidence is low & more uncertain than usual at this time.

x Hilary will encounter an anomalous pattern over the US, with a massive record-setting ridge aloft over the Plains, and a stationary cutoff upper-level trough west of CA.



Between the anomalous trough & ridge, Hilary doesn't dissipate - it accelerates NNW towards Southern CA. pic.twitter.com/Oqx1iMYTEx — Tomer Burg (@burgwx) August 17, 2023

The 2023 Hurricane Season

The 2023 hurricane season may have looked tame so far, but the hurricane season really ramps up in late August into September. See graph below.

This graphic shows the points of origins of tropical storms and hurricanes during the first ten days of September. A lot of them originate off the west coast of Africa.

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was expected to be relatively mild due to the onset of El Nino. But the extra warm waters in the Atlantic led NOAA to revise its hurricane forecast a week ago as follows —

Likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season = 60% (was 30% in May forecast)

Likelihood of near-normal activity = 25% (was 40% in May forecast)

Here is the updated outlook for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season -

Over in the Atlantic, we have had 4 named storms so far, luckily all of them stayed offshore. Two more seem to have gotten launched off Africa, which will be watched carefully in the coming days. The next storm will be named Emily.

Sea Surface Temperatures

Sea surface temperatures have been unusually high this year, after all a lot of global warming heat ends up in the oceans. These high water temperatures are conducive to hurricane formation, while El Nino and trade winds tend to dampen them.

Below is a graph of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly (deviation from average) for the past 32 years. This year’s graph soars way above the rest.

Current SST anomaly values around the world can be seen in the heat-map below. The sharp eastward increase in the Pacific equatorial region is a signature of El Nino.

TS Hilary will rapidly intensify due to warm waters off the coast of Mexico (near 30°C, 86°F), low wind shear, and a very moist atmosphere (a midlevel relative humidity near 80%). The disturbances in the Atlantic are surrounded by warm waters too.

Let’s keep an eye on these storms and make preparations ahead of time.

Let’s also keep educating the public about climate change and global warming, that it is caused by human activity and increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, most of it contributed by fossils fuels, and what we are seeing this year in terms of heat waves, wildfires, floods and droughts are a mild version of what lies ahead.

And let’s keep emphasizing that if republicans take control of Washington, then we can pretty much kiss earth goodbye, since these monsters have plans ready to undo the progress we have made so far on renewal energy and to turn government into a servant of the fossil fuel industry.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/17/2187663/-Tropical-Storm-Hilary-headed-towards-California-coast

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