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Finally U.S. Approves F-16 Ukraine: But Calm Down [1]

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Date: 2023-08-17

In a breaking story the Biden Administration has finally authorized NATO allies to transfer F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. The F-16s will not come from U.S. stocks, but rather from NATO allies Denmark and the Netherlands which have long advocated this step. Both nations are replacing their F-16s with the 5th generation American super fighter, the F-35. Denmark has about 30 F-16s in its inventory, the Netherlands about 24. By way of comparison, the United States still has over 900 in its active duty air force inventory. It remains are most common fighter jet.

One could understandably be skeptical of how this matters. Skeptics would point out that the F-16 is a nearly half century old platform, first coming into service for the United States in the mid 1970s (when I was in High School).

Those skeptics would be wrong. The F-16 was a generation leap frogging aircraft when produced, and it was designed to be upgraded, which it has. When deployed, in sufficient numbers, with well trained pilots, the F-16 would offer the following very real upgrades to the Ukraine air force.

While not considered a “stealth aircraft” by latest 5th generation aircraft standards (such as the F-35), the F-16 is much, much stealthier than any leftover Russian aircraft it has been using to date.



The F-16’s avionics, that magical, combat multiplying, combination of tactical sensors, communications, ability to integrate with other systems, and tactical displays to the pilot, is well beyond what any Ukrainian pilot has experienced in his leftover Russian aircraft. Avionics is the I/T of the aircraft and for Ukraine the F-16 would be a major upgrade.



I’d say this is the big one, but the synergetic effect with the others is so profound that I am reluctant to do so. Arguably the biggest game changer is the ability to carry the full suite of modern NATO ordinance (which requires that integration with avionics). Pull all the above together with the AIM-20 AMRAAM over the horizon, 100 KM range, fire and forget missile and the Russian Air Force has to back off by a lot. Add the HARM in its fully capable instant hunt and kill mode, and you quickly deplete not only Russian anti-air capabilities, but their already dwindling counter battery fire capabilities with artillery.

The above contained two major caveats. The first was that the F-16s be provided in sufficient numbers to matter. The second was well trained pilots. I’ll take on the first, first.

What would be “sufficient numbers.” Obviously every new aircraft helps, but I’ll speak in generalities.

Two dozen to make a real difference. That real difference would not establish Ukraine air superiority, but it would sure as Hell give the Russians some very real problems. Ukraine could pick circumstances to achieve temporary air advantage, target high priority ground targets, and make things much tougher.

If we go to about 50 such aircraft, the headaches for the Russians are much greater. Ukraine can keep a few F-16s the air at all times keeping Russian aircraft clear of much of Ukraine airspace. High priority targets in Crimea would be at risk, including the Kerch Bridge from multiple aircraft attacks using laser guided Hellfire missiles.

Of course, 50 is the upper limit that Denmark and the Netherlands have to provide, and they wouldn’t give them all up when the F-35s are still on order. But the two dozen is a realistic figure. Which moves us to the next problem, and it is a very big problem, well trained pilots to fly them.

The F-16 is a single seat aircraft. The good news is that means you have to train only one guy. The bad news is, you have to train him very well. I mean, really very well. The F-16 is a very sophisticated aircraft that puts high demands on its one pilot who has to possess a wide degree of skill sets to process the avionics, weapons systems, targeting systems, all while flying the thing in a hostile environment where people want to shoot at you and kill you.

The United States takes nine months to train a pilot specifically for the F-16, after his basic pilot training. Each weapon system is a new thing to master, and there are dozens of them. We probably truncate that down for the Ukraines, but it’s still an issue. Ukraine acknowledges it has no hope of operating F-16 this year. Even presuming some secret preliminary training has been going on, as is likely, we are looking to next Spring.

Thus, this will have no effect for the ongoing Ukraine summer offensive this year. What it does is provide notice to the Russians regarding the long term results for this war. They know this major upgrade to Ukraine’s Air Force is coming. It will greatly reduce one of Russia’s few remaining advantages in this war. It’s just going to get worse for them as Ukraine increasingly integrates western tech.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/17/2187963/-Finally-U-S-Approves-F-16-Ukraine-But-Calm-Down

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