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Ukraine Invasion Day 535: 'tactically significant' progress has been made in the counteroffensive [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-08-12

According to The New York Times, Ukrainian forces have advanced 10 to 12 miles (16-19 kilometers) in the south - through Staromayorske to occupied Berdyansk and also toward occupied Melitopol.

Tension on the Poland-Belarus border adjacent to Kaliningrad

Su-30 crashes during Russian Air Force Day celebration in Kaliningrad Oblast, resulting in the death of the two crew members.

Since 2015, the Day of the Russian Air Force and the Aerospace Forces (VKS) of Russia is celebrated on August 12. This decision was made to maintain the historical traditions of the Air Force and continuity after their reformation.

Ukrainian forces are maintaining a presence on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast in contrast to previous Ukrainian raids, but ISW does not yet assess that these positions constitute a bridgehead. ...Continuing Russian claims that Ukrainian forces maintain a presence on the east bank of the Dnipro River suggest that Russian forces are concerned that Ukrainian forces have established semi-lasting positions across the river.[4] Russian sources continue to describe Ukrainian groups operating on the left bank as small in size and fighting to be primarily between light infantry units. No Russian sources have indicated that Ukrainian forces on the left bank have the heavy equipment or vehicles likely required to establish a bridgehead that would be necessary to enable wider offensive operations into left bank Kherson Oblast.[5] An effective Russian mechanized counterattack could threaten this Ukrainian advance position, but it is unclear if Russian forces possess the mechanized reserves necessary to do so. ISW will continue to offer a conservative assessment of the situation on the east bank of Kherson Oblast until or unless ISW observes visual confirmation of an enduring Ukrainian presence on the east bank of Kherson Oblast. ISW has not yet observed visual evidence that Ukrainian forces have established a permanent position or have deployed a substantial number of personnel near Kozachi Laheri. Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front on August 12 and reportedly made tactically significant advances along the administrative border between Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) and Berdyansk (Zaporizhia-Donetsk Oblast border area) directions.[6] Geolocated footage published on August 11 indicates that Ukrainian forces made marginal gains near Urozhaine (9km south of Velyka Novosilka) in the Zaporizhia-Donetsk Oblast border area.[7]

Kerch Bridge hit for the 4th time; Orihiv-Tokmak axis. Robotyne is partially under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) and the first defensive line of the Surovikin Line has been breached between Robotyne and Verbove. Fighting is going on to remove as many of the artillery guns as possible. The AFU is advancing along two lines of communication keepingand T0803) towards Polohy ; The AFU advances and begins capturing Urozhaine [controls over 50% of the town], on the east bank of the Morki Yaly River) and begins east of Urozhaine advancing south. Radu Hossu @RaduHossu

Ukrainian forces reportedly launched two missile strikes targeting the Kerch Strait Bridge and a drone attack targeting occupied Crimea on August 12. Russian authorities claimed that Russian air defenses downed up to three Ukrainian ground attack missiles fired from S-200 systems targeting the Kerch Strait Bridge.[12] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) also reported Ukrainian forces targeted occupied Crimea with 20 drones on the night of August 11–12.[13] The Russian MoD claimed that Russian air defenses shot down 14 Ukrainian drones and downed another 6 drones with electronic warfare (EW) systems.[14] … Russian sources claimed that Russian authorities stopped traffic on the bridge for several hours following the Ukrainian missile and drone strikes, creating a traffic jam of almost 1,300 cars.[16] Russian sources claimed that Crimean occupation authorities are initiating tougher criminal liability for publishing photos and videos showing locations of military installations such as air defenses, likely in response to a photo posted today showing the location of a Russian air defense system in occupied Crimea.[17] Ukrainian strikes targeting Russian logistics in Crimea are a part of a deliberate interdiction campaign aimed at setting favorable conditions for larger counteroffensive operations. Previous Ukrainian strikes on bridges along Russian ground lines of communications (GLOCs) between occupied Crimea and occupied Kherson Oblast continue to disrupt Russian logistics.[18] www.criticalthreats.org/... x The Russian Foreign Ministry said that the Ukrainian attempts to attack the Kerch Bridge will not go 'unanswered'.

What will they do? Hit another residential building? pic.twitter.com/DduS72FOql — NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) August 12, 2023

x Remember, Crimea is Ukraine! pic.twitter.com/rgh5LipIny — Saint Javelin (@saintjavelin) August 12, 2023

“Ukrainian forces are also striking smaller Russian ammunition dumps within Ukraine to avoid big losses. He said Ukrainians in occupied territories are passing locations to Ukrainian forces who are then able to strike them.”

x Mykhailo’s mother told him he was spending too much time on computer games.

Now, he is using his skills in order to blow up Russians

Via @ukraine_world

pic.twitter.com/4go1SQMdLE — Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) August 13, 2023

x Really excellent, detailed look into Ukraine's cross-river raids into Left Bank Kherson. On the latest: "Ukraine's military had taken 16 Russian soldiers as prisoners and brought them back to the government-controlled side of the river." https://t.co/In7d89nxiU — Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) August 12, 2023

x A border sign was installed on Zmiinyi Island, Serhii Deineko, the head of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine said. The previous sign was destroyed at the beginning of the full-scale invasion. pic.twitter.com/IPv7dawAJL — NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) August 12, 2023

Key Takeaways: Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front on August 12 and reportedly made tactically significant advances along the administrative border between Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts.

Ukrainian forces reportedly launched two missile strikes targeting the Kerch Strait Bridge and a drone attack targeting occupied Crimea on August 12.

Russian forces conducted counteroffensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on August 12 and made no confirmed gains.

The Russian Ministry of Digital Development is preparing an amendment to the law on the conscription age that would increase the military service deferment age for IT specialists from 27 years to 30 years, likely in response to concerns about “brain drain” from Russia.

Russian authorities are reportedly adjusting propaganda language about the war aimed at Russian schoolchildren in Russia and occupied Ukraine. www.criticalthreats.org/...

x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - AUG 12

■ Unusually few strikes reported, engagements down

■ Troop losses 500+, equipment below 7-day average

■ Double-digit vehicle & artillery losses

■ Oryx: 42:15 🇷🇺/🇺🇦 added to records & 30-day average rising

📈 https://t.co/xatCgZ2inK pic.twitter.com/a5TA3ttAWb — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 [email protected] (@ragnarbjartur) August 12, 2023

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kupyansk area but did not make any confirmed gains on August 12. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations northeast of Synkivka (9km northeast of Kupyansk), north of Kyslivka (22km southwest of Kupyansk), and near Ivanivka (20km southeast of Kupyansk).[19] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Russian offensive operations in the Kupyansk direction aim to draw Ukrainian forces from the Bakhmut direction, supporting ISW’s previous assessment that intensified Russian offensive operations in the area hope to draw Ukrainian forces away from more operationally significant areas of the front.[20] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that elements of the Russian Western Grouping of Forces improved their tactical positions in unspecified areas in the Kupyansk direction.[21] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted unsuccessful counterattacks northeast of Kupyansk on August 12. The Russian MoD claimed that elements of the Russian Western Grouping of Forces repelled Ukrainian counterattacks near Pershotravneve (21km east of Kupyansk), Synkivka, and the Mankivka tract (around 15km east of Kupyansk).[22] www.criticalthreats.org/... x 🇷🇺#Russian «BMP-1» with infantry on top got destroyed by the 🇺🇦#Ukrainian 92nd Mechanized Brigade in the East of Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/gCoiOGbzhQ — Cloooud |🇺🇦 (@GloOouD) August 12, 2023 www.criticalthreats.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted offensive operations around Bakhmut on August 12, but did not make any confirmed or claimed advances. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and other Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Yakovlivka (14km northeast of Bakhmut), Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut), and Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut).[27] A Russian news aggregator claimed that Russian forces continue to repel Ukrainian attacks from the heights around Klishchiivka despite Russian forces defending lowland positions in the settlement.[28] Russian sources claimed that the area west of Klishchiivka is contested and that intense fighting is ongoing.[29] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Force Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Ukrainian forces continue to hold the initiative around Bakhmut.[30] Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks around Bakhmut but did not make any confirmed advances on August 12. A Russian news aggregator claimed that Russian forces counterattacked near Klishchiivka and are gradually advancing.[31] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Bohdanivka (8km northwest of Bakhmut), Klishchiivka, and Bila Hora (12km southwest of Bakhmut).[32] www.criticalthreats.org/... Russian Su pporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes) Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on August 12 and reportedly made tactically significant advances. ... Geolocated footage published on August 11 shows that Ukrainian forces made marginal gains near Urozhaine (9km south of Velyka Novosilka).[36] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces pushed Ukrainian forces out of Urozhaine on the night of August 11–12 after Ukrainian forces briefly took control of the northern part of the settlement earlier in the day on August 11.[37] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed early on August 12 that elements of the Russian Eastern Grouping of Forces repelled two Ukrainian attacks near Urozhaine.[38] www.criticalthreats.org/... www.criticalthreats.org/... www.criticalthreats.org/...

x Yes, there is other suffering in the world. But rarely is the evil so bare. And rarely is it so clear how the evil can be stopped. Russia must lose this war. https://t.co/1UWSbayd9K — Timothy Snyder (@TimothyDSnyder) August 11, 2023

x After an apparent booking mishap, CNN panelists sit in stunned silence as Margaret Kimberley explains the situation in Ukraine. I may have slightly altered this clip. :) pic.twitter.com/9Xmjrlfy7k — Turncoat Don (@TurncoatD) August 12, 2023

x 🇷🇺 SOLDIER SWIMS OVER TO SURRENDER

A 🇷🇺 soldier, in the Zaporizhia direction, made his way to free Ukraine 🇺🇦 to surrender to the 🇺🇦 Armed Forces.

More and more videos are showing-up of 🇷🇺 soldiers surrendering, not getting paid, or speaking-out.

The 🇷🇺 Army is cracking… pic.twitter.com/Lrzpe8Yiqz — Jason Jay Smart (@officejjsmart) August 12, 2023

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/12/2186859/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-535-tactically-significant-progress-has-been-made-in-the-counteroffensive

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