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Ukraine: Without artillery, Russia will fold. [1]

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Date: 2023-08-08

The Guardian today has an op-ed from Rajan Menon who is is the director of the grand strategy program at Defense Priorities entitled “It’s almost 18 months since Russia invaded Ukraine, and peace seems no closer.” I wouldn’t put it into the tankie category myself (but by all means do so yourself if it moves you). They acknowledge the reasons why Ukraine can’t really quit:

Recognizing that a comprehensive settlement is presently impossible, some have suggested an armistice. This idea holds no appeal for Ukrainians. As they see it, a ceasefire will either freeze the conflict, leaving large parts of their country in Russia’s hands, perhaps permanently, or provide Putin breathing space to revive his army and attack again.

But their premise is based on no significant movement in 9 months. As such it relies on measures of success based mostly on the movement of the lines. It doesn’t address at all the changing realities of equipment for both sides. Nor does it address the strategies both sides are employing in order to justify the sentiment “peace seems no closer.”

I’ve written before about expecting surprises and that was before Prigozhin’s not quite a coup. I’ve also written about how collapses look sudden but only after a lot of damage has already been inflicted. And due to much recent coverage by the Mark, Kos, and RO37 here on Daily Kos we know the Russians are both dependent upon and also losing their artillery advantage. If the Russians could prove they can keep up in the artillery duels, I think Rajan Menon might have a point. But Russia is in the process of losing its once greatest advantage and the item that has been core to their entire military doctrine since WW2.

People are worried about the mine fields, but an abandoned mine field is a dangerous hinderance but not an impassible object. As others have noted, without the Russian artillery to attack mine clearers (and the drones to spot the mine clearers) the mine fields won’t stop the Ukrainians.

I can’t tell you if today, or next week, or three months from now is when the Russians will suffer their next collapse, but I can tell you that is where we are headed again. Ukraine is systematically going after artillery units, supplies, and supply routes. At some point a Ukrainian unit is going to challenge a section of line and find it to not be held very strongly. At that point they can bust through and get into the backfield of Russia.

Feel free to disagree with this. But if you do please account for how Russia will continue to fight as Ukraine continues to gain an artillery advantage. Russia now uses many more 120mm mortars instead of 152mm artillery because they are running dry on the 152. Ukraine now has access to several million rounds of cluster 155mm rounds (regardless of anyone’s opinion on the morality of them). Ukraine uses far more accurate western artillery which makes their logistics easier and the effectiveness per volume of artillery much better than the Russians.

Russia is losing this war, and losing it badly. We just haven’t reached the point of breaking yet. And Prigozhin’s sorta-coup sorta-failed, but had it gone otherwise the war might have been over in a day. While it won’t be Wagner again, the chances of a similar occurrence with different actors is a non-zero probability. I put my money on a military collapse before a coup, but in the craziness of war, who knows? What I do know is that the important measures of military effectiveness are all increasing for Ukraine, and decreasing for Russia.

I’m down for the count with COVID (my first time, I had so hoped to never get it). I may or may not be able to respond depending on how things go. I’m on Paxlovid and it seems to be a minor case so please don’t worry on my account, just know my responsiveness may be challenged.

Thanks for all the support! I really appreciate it. I needed a pick me up.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/8/2185995/-Ukraine-Without-artillery-Russian-will-fold

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