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15 Reasons to be Hopeful About the 2024 Election: Saturday's GNR [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2023-08-05
Despite all the doom and gloom about a coming dark time, Bidenomics works and things are looking up. For example →
The U.S. economy is now pulling off what all these experts said was impossible: strong growth and record employment amidst plummeting inflation. And just as importantly, thanks to Bidenomics, the fruits of economic prosperity are inclusive and broad-based, amidst a renaissance in American manufacturing, investment, and productivity.
These economic wizards forgot that the theoretical basis for their superstations, the Phillips Curve, had been discarded by scholars 40 years ago when these people were students, as even once acknowledged by Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powel l. Now, reality has taken these obsolete economic voices back to school.
” this year? The astounding 2.4% GDP growth revealed this week with plunging inflation, historically low unemployment, and corporate profit reports soaring past expectations have knocked the wind out of the fact-free cynics. It’s been said that cynics sound smarter than optimists because of the facts they cite but, in this case, they have no facts.
Cynics often know the price of everything but the value of nothing. Remember how, just months ago, leading economic voices were predicting a catastrophic “Category 5
and even better news is that people are starting to NOTICE the good economy.
The ‘vibe-cession’ is over. Americans are starting to feel it.
more data on that:
U.S. consumer confidence jumps to a two-year high as inflation eases
U.S. consumer confidence shot to the highest level in two years this month as inflationary pressures eased and the American economy continued to show resilience in the face of dramatically higher interest rates. The Conference Board, a business research group, said its consumer confidence index rose to 117 in July from a revised 110.1 in June. The gauge beat the 110.5 that economists had expected and was the highest since July 2021. The index measures both Americans’ assessment of current economic conditions and their outlook for the next six months. Both improved in July. The future expectations index rose to 88.3 in July, clearing the recession threshold of 80 recorded in June.
‘Bidenomics’ was born as a put-down. Now, it’s a boast.
The portmanteau “Bidenomics” was coined as a mocking put-down. But now, President Biden is proudly embracing the term. And if recent economic trends continue, he might well have the last laugh. Shockingly high inflation and the threat of a recession gave Republicans — who are very good at branding — reason to expect that “Bidenomics” would be a rhetorical cudgel they could use against Democrats in next year’s election. The problem for Biden’s critics, though, is that Bidenomics appears to be working. And Biden has more than a year to drive that point home with voters.
More good economic news!
The Startup Surge Continues: Business Applications on Track for Second-Largest Annual Total on Record
Over the first six months of 2023, applications to start a business likely to hire employees outpaced last year’s first half-year amount by more than 7 percent. Assuming the current trend holds, then this year’s annual total should be just shy of 2021’s record amount.
Nearly 871,000 likely employer applications have been filed so far this year—a 36 percent increase over the prepandemic half-year baseline—and the second largest midyear total on record.
The business application surge remains broad-based across most industry sectors, with the strongest year-over-year growth in healthcare, retail, arts & entertainment, and accommodation & food services.
The leading communities for growth in new business formation are overwhelmingly in the South, a region home to seven of the top ten states for total business application growth since 2019.
and this from just yesterday!
x Republicans promise jobs — but #DemocratsCreateJobs: 187,000 jobs in July!
That’s 13.4 million jobs since President Biden and Democrats in Congress have worked together to grow the middle class and bring investment and opportunity to underserved communities across America. -NP — Nancy Pelosi (@TeamPelosi) August 4, 2023
2. Democrats are learning how to win in purple areas
How Gretchen Whitmer Made Michigan a Democratic Stronghold
During the pandemic, Trump attacked her for imposing long school and business closures. She endured an armed mob at the state capitol and a plot by a group linked to a right-wing militia to kidnap and kill her. Last November, Whitmer tied her candidacy to a state constitutional amendment guaranteeing the right to abortion and won reëlection by ten points, sweeping the suburbs so convincingly that the Democrats gained control of both houses of the Michigan legislature for the first time in forty years. Since then, Whitmer’s Democratic majority has allocated more than a billion dollars to support the auto industry’s green transition; quintupled a tax credit for poor families; repealed a law that made Michigan a right-to-work state; and enacted new protections for L.G.B.T.Q. people. After a forty-three-year-old local man went on a shooting spree at Michigan State University, in February, killing three students, some modest, if hard-won, gun-control measures were put in place. “I don’t know that we’ve ever watched the legislature go as quickly as they have,” Maggie Pallone, a public-policy analyst in Lansing, said earlier this year, in an article in the Detroit News. Similar breakthroughs have come in Minnesota and Pennsylvania. What’s happening in the Midwest, one of Whitmer’s advisers told me, is a “Tea Party in reverse.”
3. Young people vote. And they vote Blue
2024 won’t be a Trump-Biden replay. You can thank Gen Z for that.
It’s easy to envision the 2024 presidential election becoming the third straight contest in which a veteran Democrat goes up against Donald Trump. Once again, the Democrat wins the popular vote but swing states are tighter. Could go either way — and has, right? But things are very different this time, and here’s why: The candidates might not be changing — but the electorate has. Every year, about 4 million Americans turn 18 and gain the right to vote. In the eight years between the 2016 and 2024 elections, that’s 32 million new eligible voters. Also every year, 2½ million older Americans die. So in the same eight years, that’s as many as 20 million fewer older voters. Which means that between Trump’s election in 2016 and the 2024 election, the number of Gen Z (born in the late 1990s and early 2010s) voters will have advanced by a net 52 million against older people. That’s about 20 percent of the total 2020 eligible electorate of 258 million Americans. And unlike previous generations, Gen Z votes. Comparing the four federal elections since 2015 (when the first members of Gen Z turned 18) with the preceding nine (1998 to 2014), average turnout by young voters (defined here as voters under 30) in the Trump and post-Trump years has been 25 percent higher than that of older generations at the same age before Trump — 8 percent higher in presidential years and a whopping 46 percent higher in midterms.
4. We continue to overperform on special elections — one of the strongest predictors we have
x This is nothing new in 2023. Democrats have been overperforming partisan lean by an average of 10 points in this year's special elections.
https://t.co/r8A24rETwu — Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) July 19, 2023
5. The GOP playbook for 2024 is falling apart
GOP's crumbling case against Biden on crime, immigration and inflation
Republicans are hammering “Joe Biden’s America” as a land of rising violent crime, surging immigration and out of control inflation, but there’s just one problem: the numbers are starting to move in the opposite direction. The big picture: With 2024 around the corner, the U.S. is making measurable progress in the areas where Biden has been most vulnerable to GOP attacks.
Where did it all go right for Biden? Facts blunt Republican attack lines
Crime is down, inflation is falling and the border is quiet. Little wonder the House speaker is floating impeachment of the president for … something Republicans in Congress admit that they do not yet have any direct evidence of wrongdoing by the US president. But, critics say, there is a simple explanation why they would float the ultimate sanction: they need to put Biden’s character on trial because their case against his policies is falling apart. Heading into next year’s presidential election, Republicans have been readying a three-pronged attack: crime soaring in cities, chaos raging at the southern border and prices spiralling out of control everywhere. But each of these narratives is being disrupted by facts on the ground: crime is falling in most parts of the country, there is relative calm at the border and inflation is at a two-year low.
6. Biden/Harris have tons to run on!
why just this week….
Harris announces $125M funding for small businesses in underserved communities
Vice President Harris announced Friday that the administration would invest $125 million to help small businesses in underserved communities. The investment will go to 43 small business accelerators, chosen because they support entrepreneurs specifically in underserved communities. Harris said part of the funding will “help connect enterprisers and small business owners with the support and the guidance they need to break into the clean energy economy.” Harris said that in the first two years of the Biden administration, more entrepreneurs have applied to start small businesses than in any other two-year stint in history.
and this….
Biden Overhauls Military Justice Code, Seeking to Curb Sexual Assault
President Biden gave final approval on Friday to the biggest reshaping in generations of the country’s Uniform Code of Military Justice, stripping commanders of their authority over cases of sexual assault, rape and murder to ensure prosecutions that are independent of the chain of command. By signing a far-reaching executive order, Mr. Biden ushered in the most significant changes to the modern military legal system since it was created in 1950. The order follows two decades of pressure from lawmakers and advocates of sexual assault victims, who argued that victims in the military were too often denied justice, culminating in a bipartisan law mandating changes. The White House called the changes to the military justice system “a turning point for survivors of gender-based violence in the military” and said they kept promises Mr. Biden made as a candidate. “It is a monumental step,” said John Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council. “Any change to the Uniform Code of Military Justice is a big deal. This one is particularly important given the scourge of sexual assault and sexual harassment that the military still continues to wrestle with.”
7. Key Republicans are standing up against trump
No not enough of them, but enough to give swing voters pause. These statements will be gold in campaign ads.
Dozens served in Trump’s Cabinet. Four say he should be re-elected.
Donald Trump may have put them in the most powerful and prestigious jobs many will ever hold, but few who worked in his Cabinet are rushing to endorse him in his bid to return to the White House. NBC News reached out to 44 of the dozens of people who served in Trump's Cabinet over his term in office. Most declined to comment or ignored the requests. A total of four have said publicly they support his run for re-election. Several have been coy about where they stand, stopping short of endorsing Trump with the GOP primary race underway. Then there are those who outright oppose his bid for the GOP nomination or are adamant that they don't want him back in power. “I have made clear that I strongly oppose Trump for the nomination and will not endorse Trump,” former Attorney General Bill Barr told NBC News. Asked how he would vote if the general election pits Trump against President Joe Biden, a Democrat, Barr said: “I’ll jump off that bridge when I get to it.”
8. Their presumptive nominee sure looks like a criminal
Donald Trump Finally Has His Richard Nixon Moment
Donald Trump already faced more than 30 charges related to his illegal retention of classified documents—in addition to a grab bag of alleged felonies in a number other cases. So when prosecutors added three more charges against Trump last week, it was never going to turn Trump’s legal or political fortunes upside down. And yet, these new charges may do just that. Trump now faces two new counts of obstruction of justice over his attempts to erase security footage at Mar-a-Lago, as well as a new Espionage Act violation over his alleged possession of an Iran war plan that he waved around during an interview. While the superseding indictment may not seem any more serious than the original charges, they could substantially aid special prosecutor Jack Smith in getting a conviction—both in the public’s eye and in an actual courtroom. As Richard Nixon taught America: It’s not the crime; it’s the coverup.
looks like more evidence may come out:
x 2. There is a ton of pressure in this indictment for co-conspirators to flip (if that haven't already).
Some very strong evidence they knew Trump lost election, the litigation was a "pretext," that their means were unlawful. — Ryan Goodman (@rgoodlaw) August 1, 2023
there is lots of evidence that trump knew these were crimes
x WASHINGTON (AP) — Indictment: Trump told Pence 'you're too honest' when VP objected to blocking Biden win. — Eugene Daniels (@EugeneDaniels2) August 1, 2023
and even if he didn’t, now knowing is NOT an excuse for crime in our system
x Again, 1512 has been used with HUNDREDS of the other January 6 suspects.
ALL THOSE PEOPLE tried the "I believed he won" too.
Didn't work. — emptywheel (@emptywheel) August 2, 2023
x 1/ Public Service Announcement
Q: Do prosecutors have to prove former President Trump knew he lost the election for any of crimes charged?
A: Absolutely not
I wrote this w/ @BarbMcQuade @NormEisen in 2022.
We anticipated Indictment's charges.
<thread>
https://t.co/ka96UyZQxJ — Ryan Goodman (@rgoodlaw) August 3, 2023
remember:
x So far.... federal prosecutors have secured guilty verdicts (partial or full convictions) in 100% of the Jan 6 cases to go trial by jury — Scott MacFarlane (@MacFarlaneNews) August 2, 2023
you may say “but no one cares.” but they do:
Public Opinion About Trump’s Criminality Is Shifting—a Bit
Among self-identified independents who don’t lean toward either party, the survey yielded more ambiguous results. Fewer than half of these respondents—between thirty-seven per cent and forty-six per cent, depending on the specific cases—said they believed that Trump had committed a crime. And about half of these respondents said that the charges were politically motivated. But, although these findings seem encouraging for Trump and his supporters, the survey also found that the number of independents who believe that Trump has done something criminal is growing, especially in relation to the classified-documents case. In a Bright Line Watch survey carried out last October, thirty-four per cent of independents said that a crime had been committed in that case. In the latest poll, that number had grown to forty-six per cent. This suggests that, as prosecutors release more details of the charges and evidence against Trump, opinion is slowly shifting against him among less partisan voters. The survey even showed evidence of movement among Republicans. Since last October, the percentage of Republicans who said they believed that Trump had committed a crime in handling classified documents rose from nine to twenty-five. “We have to keep two things in mind at the same time,” Brendan Nyhan, a political scientist at Dartmouth who co-founded Bright Line Watch, told me on Monday. “On the one hand, the public is incredibly polarized on these cases. On the other hand, the new evidence does seem to be moving the needle.”
and even his biggest fans are fewer Aug. 3, 2023, 5:28 p.m. ET Aug. 3, 2023 Aug. 3, 2023 Maggie Haberman Once again, the reaction to the arraignment from Trump supporters outside the courthouse fell far short of what it might have been and what officials feared it could be.
9. More legal trouble is coming for tfg
x More bad news for Trump
https://t.co/0iJJ8doLVK — Joyce Alene (@JoyceWhiteVance) August 3, 2023
x New York AG Letitia James' office says it's ready to proceed with a trial stemming from its $250 mil lawsuit claiming Trump, his children and the Trump Org. engaged in widespread fraud.
"The case is ready for trial," the office's senior enforcement counsel wrote in a filing. — Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) August 2, 2023
Atlanta road closures could indicate Donald Trump indictments are coming
A series of downtown Atlanta road closures were announced Thursday afternoon ahead of what are widely expected to be charges coming from the Fulton County district attorney’s office investigation into former President Donald Trump. According to the Fulton County Sheriff’s Office, Pryor Street between MLK Drive and Mitchell Street will be closed to general traffic, beginning Aug. 7, at 5 a.m., through Aug. 18. The two right lanes of Pryor Street between MLK and Mitchell will be parking for media, designated by bike racks.
10. Legal bills are eating up all their money
Trump’s campaign finances are strained as legal peril mounts
Donald Trump’s political operation entered the second half of the year in a strained financial position with its bank account drained by tens of millions of dollars that were directed toward defending the former president from mounting legal challenges as he seeks the White House again. Trump took in over $53 million since the start of 2023, records show, a period in which his two criminal indictments in Florida and New York were turned into a rallying cry that sent his fundraising soaring. Yet the Republican presidential front-runner burned through at least $42.8 million this year, much of it used to cover costs related to the mounting legal peril faced by Trump, his aides and other allies, leaving him with $31.8 million cash on hand. And that was after receiving a lifeline from a pro-Trump super PAC that agreed to refund millions of dollars in contributions that Trump’s operation had previously donated to it.
11. trump will drag them all down with him (just like he did in 2018 AND 2020 AND 2022)
Trump-aligned Senate candidates raise concerns for GOP
Republicans are voicing concerns that a number of failed GOP midterm candidates aligned with former President Trump could cost them key Senate races next year. Former GOP Nevada secretary of state candidate Jim Marchant, who has been tied to the QAnon conspiracy theory and refused to concede his loss last year, has thrown his hat into the ring for Sen. Jacky Rosen’s (D-Nev.) seat. Former Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, who also refused to concede her loss to Gov. Katie Hobbs (D), has strongly hinted that she is considering a run for the state’s Senate seat. “Certainly, one thing some of these MAGA and more far-right candidates have in common is they are a glutton for punishment, and they don’t mind being humiliated at the ballot box,” said Barrett Marson, an Arizona-based GOP strategist.
Trump plans to use charges to revisit 2020 election, a fraught topic for GOP
Former president Donald Trump and some of his legal advisers see an upside to the latest criminal case against him: He can use his upcoming trial to further argue his false claims of a stolen 2020 election. But the prospect of revisiting the validity of the last election has delighted Democrats, on top of causing consternation among Republican strategists, who see other, much more politically fruitful focal points for 2024. There are mountains of evidence — provided by top leaders in his campaign and government — that the election was not stolen from Trump, and the indictment paints a damning portrait of a man who was frequently informed of that reality. Leaders in both parties agree that revisiting those topics hurt the GOP among moderates and swing voters in last year’s midterms and could continue to sandbag Trump and the rest of the ticket.
12. We have Obama
x NBC News confirms: During a trip to the White House in June, former President Barack Obama made it clear to President Biden that he was committed to doing whatever it takes to support his reelection, three sources familiar with the meeting tell @NBCNews. @MSNBC — Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) August 2, 2023
13. Their ace-in-the-hole ain’t there
Hunter Biden business associate testifies he has no knowledge of wrongdoing by Joe Biden
Hunter Biden’s business associate, Devon Archer, testified before the House Oversight Committee that he has no knowledge that then-Vice President Joe Biden changed U.S. foreign policy to help his son and that he's not aware of any wrongdoing by the elder Biden, according to transcripts of his testimony released Thursday. Archer also said that he did not disagree with the conclusion that Hunter Biden’s role on the board of Ukrainian energy firm Burisma had no effect on U.S. foreign policy. And Archer testified that he had no knowledge of any wrongdoing by Joe Biden as it related to his son’s business dealings. “No, I’m not aware of any,” Archer said during his more than five-hour deposition.
14. Dark Brandon
x A cup of Joe never tasted better.
Grab yours:
https://t.co/4fbxCBQNPZ pic.twitter.com/s2qboyE7C1 — Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) August 3, 2023
15. WE are going to FIGHT!
None of this means the election is a slam dunk. What it means is that we can win if we try hard!
What can you do?
Other Good news
The West feels gloomy about Ukraine. Here’s why it shouldn’t.
[END]
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