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COVID-19 seasonality may be debated but wastewater detection is ticking up again [1]

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Date: 2023-08-03

On July 29, 2023, Katherine Wu, staff writer for The Atlantic , wrote about Covid-19 seasonality as possibly including both winter and summertime surges. You should be able to access the article here

Some public-health experts are now worried that, after a relatively quiet stretch, the [SARS-CoV-2] is kick-starting yet another summer wave. In the southern and northeastern United States, concentrations of the coronavirus in wastewater have been slowly ticking up for several weeks, with the Midwest and West now following suit; test-positivity rates, emergency-department diagnoses of COVID-19, and COVID hospitalizations are also on the rise. The absolute numbers are still small, and they may stay that way. But these are the clear and early signs of a brewing mid-year wave, says Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University—which would make this the fourth summer in a row with a distinct coronavirus bump.

Katherine Wu relates that it is unclear whether Covid-19 will be seasonal or what the recurrence pattern of Covid infections will be because the experience with Covid-19 patterns is just too brief. Similarities to Flu such as rapid evolution, aerosol spread, and sensitive cell membranes as well as more susceptibility to respiratory viruses in winter leads ‘ Anice Lowen, a virologist at Emory University, [to anticipate] “that SARS-CoV-2 will continue to show “a clear wintertime seasonality in temperate regions of the world.” ‘

Wu goes onto cite researchers who are trying to find explanations for an apparent summertime wave.

An oft-touted explanation for COVID’s summer waves is that people in certain parts of the country retreat indoors to beat the heat. But that argument alone “is weak,” Lowen told me. In industrialized nations, people spend more than 90 percent of their time indoors.

That said, an accumulation of many small influences can together create a seasonal tipping point. Summer is a particularly popular time for travel, often to big gatherings. Many months out from winter and its numerous infections and vaccinations, population immunity might also be at a relative low at this time of year, Rivers said. Plus, for all its similarities to the flu, SARS-CoV-2 is its own beast: It has so far affected people more chronically and more severely, and has generated population-sweeping variants at a far faster pace. Those dynamics can all affect when waves manifest…

And although certain bodily defenses do dip in the cold, data don’t support the idea that immunity is unilaterally stronger in the summer. Micaela Martinez, the director of environmental health at WE ACT for Environmental Justice, in New York, told me the situation is far more complicated than that. For years, she and other researchers have been gathering evidence that suggests that our bodies have distinctly seasonal immunological profiles—with some defensive molecules spiking in the summer and another set in winter. The consequences of those shifts aren’t yet apparent.



billlaurelMD , https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/3/2184974/-COVID-isn-t-over, and Rule of claw , https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/3/2185083/-My-Terminally-Ill-Mother-In-Law-s-ER-Nurse-Our-Hospital-System-Has-Been-Overwhelmed-by-Covid, both have diaries up with personal stories about Covid -19. I thought there may have been additional diary warning of a local surge in the mid Atlantic state that I have not been able to find, and my apologies to the diarist if I don’t mention your recent diary.

This is my first diary and I hope I haven’t violated fair use rules. This is a heads up for all of us. Stay the course, kossacks even though the surge looks small so far. Pay attention to the regional variation and your local and state health Department information. Wear good masks, avoid large crowds and keep your loved ones close.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/3/2185140/-COVID-19-seasonality-may-be-debated-but-wastewater-detection-is-ticking-up-again

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