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Kansas State House Districts (2024): HD 40, HD 41, HD 96, HD 105 [1]

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Date: 2023-08-01

Today, I will look at the final four competitive Kansas house districts: HD 40, HD 41, HD 96, and HD 105. The former two districts are both located on the state’s eastern border with Missouri in Leavenworth County, which is on the outskirts of the Kansas City metro area, while the latter two districts are both located in Wichita.

Kansas House District 40

KS HD 40 is home to the community of Lansing. HD 40 was a decently Republican-leaning district under the pre-2022 boundaries, with Mitt Romney carrying it by about 16.5 points and Donald Trump carrying it by just over 15 points in 2016 and by a slightly narrower 10-point margin in 2020. The district was more competitive at the state house level, with Republican John Bradford narrowly winning the open seat by about 2 points in 2012 and being reelected by a larger 8-point margin in 2014. Democrat Debbie Deere managed to flip the district in 2016, as she defeated Bradford by about 4.5 points. However, the GOP flipped the seat back in 2018, with Republican David French narrowly defeating Deere by a razor-thin 1-point margin (less than 100 votes). French won reelection in 2018 by a larger, but still fairly competitive 8-point margin. The 2022 redistricting made HD 40 slightly redder, with Trump’s 2020 margin increasing by less than a percentage point. The 2022 state house race was not all that close, with Republican David Buehler winning the open seat by just under 11 points. Buehler should be heavily favored, but the district still warrants notice, given that it has been competitive in the past. I’m classifying HD 40 as Likely Republican.

Kansas House District 41

KS HD 41 contains Fort Leavenworth and Kickapoo. HD 41 swung to the right at the presidential level under the pre-2022 boundaries, going from supporting Romney by about 4 points to supporting Trump in 2016 by about 11 points. The district did move back somewhat towards the Dems in 2020, with Trump’s margin shrinking to under 6 points. At the state house level, the district changed parties several times. Democrat incumbent Melanie Meir won the seat by between 10 and 11 points in 2012, against Republican incumbent Jane Goodman who was pitted against her due to redistricting, but Republican Tony Barton won back the open seat by 12 points in 2014. Democrat Jeff Pitman was able to flip the seat back in 2016, as he defeated Barton by 10 points, and was reelected by a larger margin of nearly 15 points in a 2018 rematch with Barton. The district flipped parties again in 2020, with Republican Pat Proctor winning the open seat by a competitive 6-point margin. The 2022 redistricting made HD 41 several points redder, with Trump’s 2020 margin expanding to about 13.5 points and the new district extending into more rural territory. However, the 2022 state house race was close, with Proctor narrowly winning reelection by just over 3 points, underperforming his 2020 margin by a few points, despite having the advantage of incumbency this time and the new district being more favorable to the GOP. The district should be competitive again this cycle. While it might be tempting to give Proctor an edge, given that the district is solidly red at the presidential level, I’m going to cautiously classify HD 41 as a Toss Up.

Kansas House District 96

KS HD 96 encompasses the southern end of Wichita. HD 96 moved to the right at the presidential level under the pre-2022 boundaries, as it went from supporting Romney by about 4 points to supporting Trump in 2016 by about 12.5 points. The district did move back somewhat towards the Dems in 2020, however, with Trump’s margin shrinking to a little more than 7 points. The seat was friendlier to Democrats at the state house level, with Democrat Brandon Whipple easily winning the open race by 17 points in 2012, being reelected by a slightly more competitive 12.5 margin in 2014, and running unopposed in 2016 and 2018. Whipple ended up resigning in early 2020 to become mayor of Wichita and Democrat Stephanie Yeager was appointed to replace him. Yeager was unable to hold the seat in 2020, likely a result of a buildup in polarization, and was defeated by Republican Tom Kessler by nearly 7 points. The 2022 redistricting made HD 96 slightly redder, with Trump’s 2020 margin expanding to about 8.5 points. Kessler ran unopposed in 2022, as Democrats failed to contest the district. Kessler should be favored, given the district’s Republican lean, but it seems reasonable to expect a competitive race. I’m classifying HD 96 as Lean Republican, but could see shifting the district to Likely Republican if Dems fail to nominate a strong candidate.

Kansas House District 105

KS HD 105 covers western Wichita. HD 105 does not seem to be at all affected by the 2022 redistricting, with identical pre-2022 and post-2022 boundaries. The district is heavily Republican-leaning, with Romney and Trump in 2016 carrying it by about 20 to 22 points, though the seat did move several points to the left in 2020, with Trump’s margin shrinking to just under 12 points. The state house races were not all that competitive, with Republican incumbent Brenda Landwehr, who first won the seat in 2018 running unopposed, easily winning by around 18 points in 2020 and by a slightly narrower margin of between 16 and 17 points in 2022, though it seems quite likely that the Democrats didn’t seriously contest these races. Landwehr should be fairly safe, but the district may have the potential to be competitive if Democrats make a serious investment. I’m classifying HD 105 as Likely Republican.

Also, I should note that there are a few “Safe” districts that I thought about including in the “Likely” category, in particular, HD 29 and HD 86 on the Dem side and HD 26 on the Republican side. These districts could potentially be on the board if the incumbents retire and/or the challengers run really strong campaigns.

Thanks to cnalysis (for the 2020 presidential results of the new districts) and Daily Kos Elections (for the presidential results of the old districts).

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/1/2184527/-Kansas-State-House-Districts-2024-HD-40-HD-41-HD-96-HD-105

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