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Arizona State Senate: 2024 Ratings [1]
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Date: 2023-08-01
Next up in my state legislative summary posts is the Arizona State Senate, which I previously looked at back in March of this year.
A chart with my ratings for all the competitive seats can be found at the top of the post. As per usual, I have excluded non-competitive seats (“Safe Democrat” or “Safe Republican”).
There are no rating changes for any of the seats, but there are some interesting candidate developments/updates.
Most notably, Republican Steve Kaiser, who was the incumbent in SD 2, resigned from the chamber last month, and Republican Shawna Bolick was appointed to replace him. This is probably a positive for Democrats, though as indicated above, the seat’s rating has not changed, given that Bolick is an election denier, while Kaiser was more moderate. Bolick also seems to have a primary challenger, as Josh Barnett, who lost the GOP primary for Arizona’s 1st Congressional District last cycle, has filed a Statement of Interest. In addition, Democrat Judy Schweibert has expressed interest in running for the senate seat. This is also likely a plus for Dems, given that she is currently one of the representatives for HD 2 (the corresponding state house district) and has some name-recognition.
Interestingly, Anthony Kern, the Republican incumbent in SD 27, has filed a Statement of Interest not for SD 27, but rather for the corresponding HD 27. Republican Kevin Payne, who currently represents HD 27, has filed a Statement of Interest for SD 27. Payne is currently term-limited for the state house, so it seems that he and Kern are swapping chambers to deal with this issue. I’m now marking the senate district as open, though Payne arguably will have the same advantage of incumbency that Kern would have had (assuming the former becomes the GOP nominee).
Also of importance, Justine Wadsack, the Republican incumbent in SD 17, is currently subject to a recall petition, though, again, the district’s rating has not changed. Republican Vince Leach, who had been serving in the chamber and narrowly lost the primary last cycle to Wadsack, has filed a Statement of Interest this cycle. Arizonans for Reproductive Freedom co-founder Amy Fitch has expressed interest in running for SD 17 on the Dem-side.
In SD 9 and SD 23, Robert Scantlebury and Gary Snyder, the respective Republican challengers from last cycle, have both filed Statements of Interests this cycle, setting up potential rematches against the Dem incumbents.
Finally, two Republican challengers have expressed interest in SD 4: Kenneth Bowers, who has previously run for both of AZ’s legislative chambers (and is likely a perennial candidate), and Pamela Graham, who ran for Scottsdale City Council last cycle but failed to win the General Election.
My overall rating for the chamber is a Toss Up. Currently, the balance in the chamber is 16R – 14D, meaning that Democrats need at net gain of least two seats for control of the chamber, with a net gain of one seat producing a tied chamber, presumably resulting in a power-sharing agreement. Assuming both parties hold all the seats they are favored in, the Democrats need to win at least three of the four toss-ups for control, which seems reasonable.
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[1] Url:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/1/2184532/-Arizona-State-Senate-2024-Ratings
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