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Ukraine Invasion Day 523: Chonhar is not a bridge too far [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-07-30

Coverage on the Chonhar bridge attack(s) in Crimea suggests to the ISW that any underreporting is due to a specific Kremlin directive not to cover disruptions to critical GLOCs that may have caused this lack of reporting.

We find ourselves at a bizarre turning point in a crisis which has seen no shortage of them where the only ones who think Ukraine’s counter-offensive isn’t quite the let-down or failure it’s been widely portrayed as are the Russians desperate to prove otherwise.

Crimea is a mythical land which cannot be defended. The Russian forces took it in less than a week in 2014 (27th February – 1st March). They had a similar experience in World War Two. They entered Crimea on April 8th, 1944 and, by May 12th, the last German troops had been defeated. The German Army had entered Crimea on September 26th, 1941, and conquered most of the peninsula by October 30th, with the main exception of Sebastopol. The peninsula was conquered in less than a month on three different occasions in the last 75 years. The General who described the German conquest, Erich von Manstein, indicated that any invasion there relies heavily on air support as well as naval help. In other words, once an air force has struck, nothing blocks infantry from entering the peninsula. It is defenceless. The various communities which have historically lived separately within Crimea (Armenians, Greeks, Tatars, among many others) reveal that each group lived its own life relatively undisturbed by history. The lie of the land cannot be changed.

Crimea is a mythical land which cannot be defended. The Russian forces took it in less than a week in 2014 (27th February – 1st March). They had a similar experience in World War Two. They entered Crimea on April 8th, 1944 and, by May 12th, the last German troops had been defeated. The German Army had entered Crimea on September 26th, 1941, and conquered most of the peninsula by October 30th, with the main exception of Sebastopol. The peninsula was conquered in less than a month on three different occasions in the last 75 years. The General who described the German conquest, Erich von Manstein, indicated that any invasion there relies heavily on air support as well as naval help. In other words, once an air force has struck, nothing blocks infantry from entering the peninsula. It is defenceless. The various communities which have historically lived separately within Crimea (Armenians, Greeks, Tatars, among many others) reveal that each group lived its own life relatively undisturbed by history. The lie of the land cannot be changed.

Crimea is a mythical land which cannot be defended. The Russian forces took it in less than a week in 2014 (27th February – 1st March). They had a similar experience in World War Two. They entered Crimea on April 8th, 1944 and, by May 12th, the last German troops had been defeated. The German Army had entered Crimea on September 26th, 1941, and conquered most of the peninsula by October 30th, with the main exception of Sebastopol. The peninsula was conquered in less than a month on three different occasions in the last 75 years. The General who described the German conquest, Erich von Manstein, indicated that any invasion there relies heavily on air support as well as naval help. In other words, once an air force has struck, nothing blocks infantry from entering the peninsula. It is defenceless. The various communities which have historically lived separately within Crimea (Armenians, Greeks, Tatars, among many others) reveal that each group lived its own life relatively undisturbed by history. The lie of the land cannot be changed.

Crimea is a mythical land which cannot be defended. The Russian forces took it in less than a week in 2014 (27th February – 1st March). They had a similar experience in World War Two. They entered Crimea on April 8th, 1944 and, by May 12th, the last German troops had been defeated. The German Army had entered Crimea on September 26th, 1941, and conquered most of the peninsula by October 30th, with the main exception of Sebastopol. The peninsula was conquered in less than a month on three different occasions in the last 75 years. The General who described the German conquest, Erich von Manstein, indicated that any invasion there relies heavily on air support as well as naval help. In other words, once an air force has struck, nothing blocks infantry from entering the peninsula. It is defenceless. The various communities which have historically lived separately within Crimea (Armenians, Greeks, Tatars, among many others) reveal that each group lived its own life relatively undisturbed by history. The lie of the land cannot be changed.

Crimea is a mythical land which cannot be defended. The Russian forces took it in less than a week in 2014 (27th February – 1st March). They had a similar experience in World War Two. They entered Crimea on April 8th, 1944 and, by May 12th, the last German troops had been defeated. The German Army had entered Crimea on September 26th, 1941, and conquered most of the peninsula by October 30th, with the main exception of Sebastopol. The peninsula was conquered in less than a month on three different occasions in the last 75 years. The General who described the German conquest, Erich von Manstein, indicated that any invasion there relies heavily on air support as well as naval help. In other words, once an air force has struck, nothing blocks infantry from entering the peninsula. It is defenceless. The various communities which have historically lived separately within Crimea (Armenians, Greeks, Tatars, among many others) reveal that each group lived its own life relatively undisturbed by history. The lie of the land cannot be changed.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces announced on July 29 that Ukrainian forces successfully struck the Chonhar bridge on the M-18 (Dzhankoi-Melitopol) highway between occupied Crimea and occupied Kherson Oblast. [1] ISW has not observed any Russian milblogger discussion about the Ukrainian strike or Russian milbloggers promoting Kherson Oblast occupation administration head Vladimir Saldo’s claim that Russian forces intercepted 12 Ukrainian Strom Shadow cruise missiles targeting the bridge. [2] The only other Russian source to comment on the strikes was a local Russian news Telegram channel, which amplified alleged claims from Russian tourists in the area about the bridge being closed to traffic. [3] Russian milbloggers responded to a Ukrainian strike on the Chonhar bridge on June 22 with widespread outrage and concern, and Russian milbloggers routinely comment on both successful and allegedly unsuccessful Ukrainian strikes on Russian logistics. [4] The Chonhar bridge is a notable bottleneck along a critical Russian ground line of communication (GLOC), and it is highly unlikely that Russian milbloggers would voluntarily ignore a successful or unsuccessful Ukrainian strike on the bridge. ISW has previously assessed that select Russian milbloggers may be shaping their coverage of the war in Ukraine in ways more favorable to Kremlin narratives out of fear of Kremlin punishment following the removal of prominent critical voices in the Russian information space, particularly pro-war critic Igor Girkin and Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin. [5] General fear of Kremlin punishment would not likely result in such near-universal lack of coverage of a dramatic event, however, and it is more likely that a specific Kremlin directive not to cover disruptions to critical GLOCs caused this lack of reporting.

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front and made claimed advances in some areas. Ukrainian military sources reported that Ukrainian forces are achieving small successes on the southern flank of Bakhmut and are gradually advancing in the Berdyansk (western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast area) and Melitopol (in western Zaporizhia Oblast) directions. [9]

Meanwhile in Russia: Vladimir Solovyov said that Russia will rebuild destroyed historical buildings in Ukraine from scratch and they will be "better than they ever were!" He also named one of his panelists as Odesa's soon-to-be Governor. https://t.co/5dZ2SFxlEL

(its) malign political traditions continued after 1991 as Russia crushed the fledgling Chechen Republic of Ichkeria and Tatarstan and sponsored pro-Russia breakaway states in Moldova's Transnistria region and the Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, where Russia used false accusations of genocide as a pretext for its 2008 invasion, a tactic it would rehash in Ukraine six years later.

The Russian Empire collapsed with the 1917 October Revolution, but that tradition of authoritarianism, oppression and imperial conquest persisted as the empire got a new coat of paint, trading tsars for commissars and rebranding as the U.S.S.R.

Russian claims of lordship over Ukraine are about as credible as if British leaders called decolonization a "geopolitical catastrophe" and then dredged up medieval manuscripts to make the case against Irish independence.

Russia's covetousness toward Ukraine differs somewhat from its other colonization activities, but comes from the same underlying desire to subjugate. It stems from the popular myth that Russia is the legitimate heir to the medieval state of Kyivan Rus, centered on modern-day Kyiv, which Putin cited in a July 2021 pseudohistorical essay denying Ukraine's right to sovereignty, "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians."

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front and made claimed advances in some areas. Ukrainian military sources reported that Ukrainian forces are achieving small successes on the southern flank of Bakhmut and are gradually advancing in the Berdyansk (western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast area) and Melitopol (in western Zaporizhia Oblast) directions. [9]

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations along the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area but did not make confirmed advances on July 30. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported on July 29 that Ukrainian forces are gradually advancing in the Berdyansk direction (western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast area). [31] The Russian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Oleg Chekhov and another Russian source claimed on July 30 that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks in the direction of Urozhaine (9km south of Velyka Novosilka) and Staromayorske (9km south of Velyka Novosilka). [32]

Russian forces continued ground attacks on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City on July 30 but did not make any claimed or confirmed gains . The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops unsuccessfully attacked near Marinka and Pobieda (both on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City). [27] Ukrainian Tavrisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Major Valerii Shershen noted on July 30 that Russian forces have increased assault operations in Marinka and are more intensely using ”Storm-Z” assault detachments. [28] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Russian forces have increased the use of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles in assaults on Marinka. [29]

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut area on July 30 and did not make any confirmed gains. Ukrainian military sources reported that Ukrainian troops are achieving small but continued successes on the southern flank of Bakhmut and that Russian forces continue pulling reserves to the area. [21] ...Several Russian sources amplified footage reportedly showing elements of the ”Pryzrak” Battalion of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade attacking Ukrainian positions on the outskirts of Klishchiivka. [23]

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line on July 30 but did not make confirmed gains. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations east of Berestove (20km northwest of Svatove) and near Novoyehorivka (16km southwest of Svatove) and Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna). [10] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty reported that there were seven combat engagements along the Svatove-Kreminna line and that Russian forces are trying to gain the initiative in the area. [11] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that elements of the Russian Western Grouping of Forces continued offensive operations in the direction of Novoselivske (16km northwest of Svatove) and advanced 300m into Ukrainian defenses. [12]

Ukraine live updates: Drones slam Moscow; Trump calls for halt in aid 🔹 so Trump is coming right out and trying to extort Ukraine again…right out in the open! 😳 https://t.co/lQRGbNAMsm

One drone headed for Moscow was destroyed in the air and the other two were electronically suppressed, crashing in the city, the Russian Defense Ministry said. A security guard at one of the downtown buildings was injured, the Russian state-run Tass news agency reported.

The damaged buildings contained offices of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Digital Development and the Federal Agency for Nationalities, among other agencies, the Russian media outlet The Insider reported. The area was evacuated and several streets were cordoned off. In addition, the governor of the Bryansk region near the countries' border said a Ukrainian strike damaged a pig breeding complex and injured three people.

"Drones attacked the orc capital and Crimea tonight. EW and air defense are less and less able to protect the skies of the occupiers. So that it doesn't happen there, but there will be more of it."

Images of Ukrainian “Beaver” Long-Range Attack Drones which have been used twice in the last week to Strike the Russian Capital City of Moscow, the Drones are reported to have a Range of over 1000km. pic.twitter.com/44PZBIMGhh

“But we must be aware that, just as last year, Russian terrorists can still attack our energy sector and critical facilities this winter,” Mr Zelensky said, adding that preparations for “all possible scenarios” were discussed in Ivano-Frankivsk.

“Ukraine is getting stronger,” he added, warning however that the country should prepare for new attack on energy infrastructure in winter.

“Gradually, the war is returning to the territory of Russia - to its symbolic centres and military bases, and this is an inevitable, natural and absolutely fair process,” Zelensky said on a visit to the western city of Ivano-Frankivsk.

Plenty of M2 Bradleys to replace losses in Ukraine. We have a surplus. People talk like they're exquisite weapon systems available in tiny numbers or something. Losing a dozen or so in the 1st week of hitting a reinforced Russian front hundreds of miles long is a win, not loss.

Phillips P. OBrien from Phillips’s Newsletter

Good Morning Everyone. Even though there were alot of quite dramatic headlines over the week about the Ukrainian counteroffensive (first very pessimistic and then rather bubbly), and some claims that the Ukrainians were committing their reserves, I do wonder if indeed what we really say was a modest uptick in effort as the Ukrainians are actually continuing on their campaign of the last 5 weeks. Also, this morning there were pictures of (what we assume to be) Ukrainian drones attacking Moscow. This campaign is an interesting one, and I think I have an idea why they are doing it. Finally, I had an article out in Foreign Affairs, which discussed the importance of resetting our understanding of what matters in war. Its been extremely widely read, but some seem to resent it. The importance of the piece, as I will hopefully make clear, is not to simply cast blame on failure, its to push a new understanding so such mistakes are not made in the future.

Counteroffensive Update (don't assume this is the main effort)

A week ago there were, once again, some very pessimistic stories about the Ukrainian counteroffensive. They stressed the slow geographic progress of Ukrainian forces, Ukrainian losses, etc etc. You can find them if you want. However, early in the week, the narrative shifted quite markedly. It became clear that Ukrainian forces had been making consistent (if modest) advances.

Maybe the immediate catalyst for this was a CNN report of July 26, quoting unnamed Pentagon officials who said that Ukraine was committing more forces to the counteroffensive and may have identified weak points in the Russian line. You can read that report here if you want.

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-07-26-23#h_5a637916a55861db6e5fc0e39875caec

At that point, stories started coming on of some Ukrainian advances in Zaporizhzhia oblast. One of the issues seems to have been that there had been some Ukrainian advances, but the quiet (and bad weather) had made difficult to track them. The New York Times added to the news by saying that the ‘main’ effort of the counteroffensive might have commenced.

Then things really took off. President Zelensky certainly fanned the flames with his deliberately coy statement on July 26 that some ‘very good news’ was coming in from the offensive.

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/duzhe-vazhlivo-sho-zuhvalist-ciyeyi-ataki-rosijskih-terorist-84521

The specifics of the good news was made clear a few hours later when it was stated that the small town of Staromaiorske had been liberated. This had been a town the Ukrainians had been aiming at for a while (see Deep State map)

There were even these videos—which Zelensky tweeted out with the rather stirring caption.

Our South! Our guys! Glory to Ukraine!

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1684627441610891265?s=20

And since then—once again things seem to have quieted down. We hear only little of new Ukrainian advances (which I’m sure means that pessimistic stories will start up again soon). I do think we need to be very cautious in thinking that this development represents anything like the main effort of the Ukrainians. It could just as easily represent a small ramp up of the efforts of the Ukrainians over the last few weeks—and again it has not yet been confirmed how many of the brigades Ukraine has in reserve (which is considerable) have been committed to battle. I have heard from some pretty reliable people that a very large force of reserves still remains to be committed. I will go back to what I said last week—Ukraine is actually not under any immediate time pressure to step up ground attacks, and they will only do so if they really feel there is a weak spot in the line.

Actually, Ukraine continues to making major efforts doing what it has been doing for weeks—trying to damage Russian artillery resources, from the systems to the logistics. They are clearly still trying to weaken Russian defensive capabilities before going forward in masse. The data seems to show that clearly.

https://twitter.com/HerrDr8/status/1685274926415028225?s=20

Also the logistics campaign continues apace. The Ukrainians are going after connections to and from Crimea, and seem to have damaged railway and road connections.

https://twitter.com/HerrDr8/status/1685274926415028225?s=20

Before leaving the counteroffensive, I wanted to highlight a story by Michael Weiss and Jimmy Rushton, in case you missed it. Its a powerful refutation to the idea that the counteroffensive should be a failure—by looking at Russian sources. What they show, is an extremely high level concern in Russian circles at what the Ukrainians are doing and how Russian forces are weakening. Its a very different picture that many have given. Btw, both Michael and Jimmy deserve your attention regularly, they are two of the absolute best reporters on the war.

In this case, their story is entitled: The Russians See Ukrainian Progress Where Others Do Not. Its really worth a close read.

https://newlinesmag.com/argument/russians-see-ukrainian-progress-where-others-dont/

Drones attack Moscow-why?

You may have woken up this morning to reports of Ukrainian UAVs attacking Moscow buildings.

https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1685553125900304384?s=20

Now the Ukrainan attacks on Moscow began months ago, as it seems very very likely that it was the Ukrainians who were responsible for the UAV attack on the Kremlin in early May.

UAV attack on Kremlin, May 3, 2023

On the one hand these attacks seem very un-Ukrainian. They are of very limited military value. Its hard to see how they would effect the ability of the Russians to wage war. When they Ma attack first occurred, I doubted that the Ukrainian did it for precisely that reason. I didn’t see how it helped them win the war.

I think now I (might) have a little idea of what they are thinking. The Ukrainians do seem convinced that the stability of the Russian state is weak. The Prigozhin mutiny probably turbocharged that belief. What they are probably thinking is that this will be extremely embarrassing for Putin—who cant even protect his capital from attack. Its a political campaign aimed at weakening Russian beliefs in the effectiveness of their own state and (the hope I guess) is that this will lead to the collapse of the Putinist state. When I was in Ukraine, it was regularly stated that they believed the Putinist state could implode—and it seems that they are trying to accelerate the process.

That is the only way this campaign makes sense (to me at least).

Why its matters that analysis was flawed--its about the future

I published the second article in Foreign Affairs this week arguing that we need to reassess how we understand power and war in light of the Russo-Ukraine war. This one was directed at how war was understood. The reception has been very positive. Its the most read piece in Foreign Affairs , and seems to be sparking a great deal of discussion. The article was entitled, The War that Defied Expectations .

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/war-defied-expectations

Needless to say not everyone was happy. There have been some complaints that I should not be concerned with the great mistakes of the analysis of pre Feb 24, 2022 Russian and Ukrainian military power—and the shape of the war they would fight. The argument seems to be—everyone makes mistakes, so lets move on.

I think this is extremely wrong headed, because the mistakes were so profound, we must learn from them—so that this is not repeated in the future, when the results could be even more disastrous. Ultimately we need to study the analysis and learn from it for 3 main reasons.

If the expert community so drastically misunderstood what it was looking at, that calls into question the whole way the community operates. Its not good enough to say—everyone makes mistakes, lets move on. These are supposedly expert communities, that brief policy makers, are quoted widely in the news, and help set the public agenda. Its needs to be questioned and interrogated when it makes such major mistakes. The impact of those mistakes did not magically end on Feb 25, 2022. The vision given of Russian and Ukrainian power, and how war would be fought had for a long time (and in many ways still does) influence the kinds of aid Ukraine has been given. Even today there remains a large chorus of those saying Russia cant lose, and therefore Ukraine should be forced to take a bad deal. The most important issue—similar mistakes going forward could have even more catastrophic results. As the article hopefully made clear, war was presented as fast and to a large degree straightforward. Russia was said to have the capacity to achieve its goals and devastate the Ukrainian armed forces in relativel short order. This is almost never the case—war is rarely decisive and is frankly normally a catastrophic mess. Any war in Asia-Pacific is likely to be this on steroids. We need to talk about such a war in a far more sophisticated and realistic way. I went into that in more detail in this post.

link.sbstck.com/...

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