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Just the Stats, Man!: Weekly Canvass Report from FL, GA, MI, MT, NC, NV, OH, PA, WI & VA [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-07-29

Hope Springs canvassers found evidence of ground work by GOP-aligned groups in just 2 states last weekend (Wisconsin and Ohio). But instead of a couple of run-ins (actually, passing bys) canvassers saw 9 different conservative org canvassing teams out last Saturday, all but one in Ohio. They are stepping it up.

If you are a regular reader of these weekly statistical breakdowns, you know that we have been tracking the door knocking teams from the other side, from the conservative orgs like Club for Growth, Americans for Prosperity, et al. The primary reason we are tracking where these conservative orgs are knocking is because they infer what are their current priorities. Right now, it seems, these conservative orgs are focused on their bases, in persuasion of other Republicans and conservatives, in the quest to be a factor in their upcoming primaries.

Since March 4, Hope Springs from Field PAC volunteers have been knocking on doors (as weather permitted) in Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and Virginia. These all are critical states that will determine who is President and which party controls the Senate in 2025. So, not much at stake. I shouldn’t have to note the stakes in the special election in Ohio in 11 days.

3,565 volunteers came out to knock on doors last Saturday. We are now canvassing in 10 states with our systemic Deep Organizing, conversational approach designed to engage voters at their doors and elicit valuable information that will help Democrats during our Fall 2024 GOTV efforts. We also feel like this approach is a great introduction to canvassing for the volunteers who have never knocked on doors before, and especially for those volunteers who are intimidated by the activity. You may note that we did NOT have as many volunteers out knocking last Saturday as we did on the last Saturday in June, even though we had a terrific turnout in Ohio for GOTV.

Hope Springs volunteers knocked on 270,837 doors. Remember i noted that we did not have a record number of volunteers come out on Saturday? Well, we did hit a record number of doors! I always *expect* these numbers to go up and down in lock-step, but they don’t. And i always try to mention that our philosophy — often different than that of campaigns now — is to give volunteers larger pieces of turfs in the very walkable areas (as opposed to having them keep coming back for more), as we shoot for the very ambitious 6 million doors knocked goal that our core volunteers set for themselves over the winter. Each month in the Summer, we add another ~5 doors to turf in recognition that our training shows volunteers how to predict whether there is someone home, a trick that means they can move on to the next door faster.

Volunteers got to talk to 20,003 voters this week. They opened the door and at least took our lit. A very high percentage of them will respond to our query about whether they are registered to vote at this address. Anywhere between 55% to 65% of the voters we actually talk to will agree to answer questions on our Issues Survey. Other voters will have a question they want to ask, or a public service they want to request. But i noticed awhile ago that one reason we get people to talk to us is because of the pre-canvassing training we do, and our focus on some really simple things. One of these is that we show voters we talk to the Survey and they see that it is just one page. Voters will often pick and choose which questions to which they will respond! 20,000 is another record for Hope Springs volunteers!

But our number 1 piece of advise (something all our organizers are supposed to start with) when training volunteers is, Smile! When i lead trainings, i tell them to “Smile, because no one you talk to today will remember a single thing you say. But they will always remember the impression you left.” A DKos commenter told me that this was in line with Maya Angelou:

I've learned that people will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel.

Hope Springs from Field volunteers walk with an Issues Canvass, where we ask voters what they think and whether they had a message for their elected officials. 12,250 voters answered questions from the survey, in whole or in part.

By far, the highest response numbers always are in the second question, about what issue voters think “is most urgent” at this time (Q2). The “send a message to your Member” (Q5) is also very popular. And we are getting a lot of responses to the “Is there a single issue that will determine how you vote” question (Q7), too — something we added in 2022 because we were finding voters answering differently to the Top Issue question than to what was actually driving their vote. This is incredibly valuable information for those who do persuasion canvassing next year!

Hope Springs from Field PAC has been knocking on doors since March in a grassroots effort to prepare the 2024 Electoral Battleground in what has been called the First and Second Rounds of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are canvassing Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans.

Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support. You may note that we are asking for financial support for our GOTV and Ballot Curing efforts in Ohio right now to defeat Issue 1:

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hope4ohio

Hope Springs from Field understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do.

We ask voters who talk to us whether they approve or disapprove of the job the president, their incumbent Senator (up for election this year), and how their governor is doing. After the primaries, we also ask about the Democratic Senate and nominees. But a very high percentage of the voters who provide responses to the Issues Survey will tell us what they think about their president, or senator or governor. But especially president. In Ohio, we ask supplemental questions related to Issue 1 which will be replaced by supplemental questions about the constitutional amendment on Ohio’s ballots in November after August 8th.

In Florida, 57% of the voters we talked to who responded had a favorable impression of President Biden. If you notice that Biden has been trending up in Florida, it is largely because responses we are getting in Central Florida, which is having a bit of DeSantis fatigue. The governor’s culture war on Disney and other Central Florida businesses have created an increasing fear in the I-4 corridor of an economic collapse. 14% of voters approved of the job Senator Scott was doing last weekend. 7% had a favorable impression of Governor DeSantis last week. We are basically knocking on doors of households with Democratic and Independent voters; although we have started to include households that have mixed households, with Republicans in them. This change is an outgrowth of our experience dealing with mixed (Dem/GOP) households in the Georgia runoff and GOTV in Jacksonville.

We have taken a Summer break in Arizona and plan to resume knocking on doors there after Labor Day. It’s just too darn hot there!

In Georgia, 56% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. Georgia doesn’t have a Senate election this cycle, our efforts here is a pure Electoral College play. 34% approved of the job Governor Kemp was doing. For awhile, after we started knocking on doors in the Atlanta metro region, Kemp’s approval had increased as we were including more white voters in our target universe. But this seems to have abated. Lasty Saturday, his trend line took a step back up. We shall see.

We began knocking on doors in Michigan on the first Saturday in June. It’s a brand new state for us, but Michigan has an important, open Senate race in 2024 and remains a critical Electoral College Swing State. Among the voters we talked to in the 8th week, 52% had a favorable opinion of President Biden. 58% had a positive view of Gov. Whitmer. As noted in an earlier diary, we continue to find voters who tell us their governor is “a star!” Republicans got their first Senate candidate for the open seat currently held by Debbie Stabenow. We still expect more Democrats to enter the race, as well.

In Montana, 43% of the voters we talked to last Saturday approved of the job President Biden is doing. 16% disapproved. 63% approved of the job Senator Tester is doing, while 5% disapprove. 24% approved of what Governor Gianforte is doing, while 31% disapproved. 45% of the voters we talked to had no impression of what Gianforte is doing — or, at least, don’t want to admit to it.

In Nevada, 52% of the voters Hope Springs from Field volunteers talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing while 9% disapproved. 61% had a favorable impression of the job Jacky Rosen was doing. 5% disapproved. 33% of voters approved of the job Governor Lombardo was doing and 27% disapproved. There is definitely a difference between the results we see in the Reno area than we find in the Vegas area about the governor; seems to be significantly greater approval there left over from his prior job there as the Clark County Sheriff.

In North Carolina, 53% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. 55% of the voters we talked to approved of the job Governor Cooper was doing. North Carolina is also a pure play for the Electoral College. It has no Class I senators, which is kind of unfortunate given what the North Carolina legislature is doing with it’s GOP supermajority. But we are trying to protect Democratic seats in the House, given the North Carolina Supreme Court ruling overturning the 2022 Congressional Map. There’s a lot of fear about what will happen.

In Ohio, 55% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. 9% expressed disapproval. 71% approved of the job Sherrod Brown was doing; 3% disapproved. 19% approved of the job that Governor DeWine was doing and 41% disapproved. Notice a change here? That’s because we have a lot more volunteers and we are being careful in our target universe. GOTV, baby!, for Issue 1.

Part of our focus in Ohio, though, is the possibility that Ohio’s Congressional Map may be redone. “New Ohio Statehouse and U.S. Congressional maps are due this year, just like they were last year. But political scientists in the state aren’t holding out hope that major changes are coming.” “In-fighting among Republicans has made any agreement at all uncertain” but we definitely want to protect the small gains we made there last year.

In Pennsylvania, the voters we spoke with gave Biden a 51% job approval rating; 11% disapproved. 67% of the voters we talked to approved of the job Bob Casey was doing in the Senate and only 4% disapproved. Governor Shapiro received a 55% approval rating last week. 7% disapproved.

Last weekend was our ninth week knocking on doors in Wisconsin. 51% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden is doing while 8% disapproved. 58% of them approved of the job Tammy Baldwin is doing in the Senate and 6% disapproved. 49% of voters approved of the job Governor Evers is doing while 12% disapproved.

We started knocking on doors in key Virginia state legislative districts again as the primaries wrapped up a month ago. This is why there is this (basically) month-long gap in our data. Just on the subject of Reproductive Healthcare, these Virginia races are critical — but it doesn’t hurt that a poor result for Governor Youngkin will deter his entrance into the presidential race, either. 51% of the voters we talked to in Virginia approved of the job President Biden was doing. 6% disapproved. 63% approved of what Tim Kaine was doing in the Senate, while 3% (!) disapproved. 14% of the voters we talked to, mostly independents to boot, approved of the job Gov. Youngkin was doing in the state. 33% expressed disapproval.

If support our grassroots efforts to turn out voters opposed to Issue 1 in Ohio and to cure early vote ballots that are (usually) missing a signature, please help:

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hope4ohio

Top 3 Issues in ea State Last Saturday

Each week, we ask voters what is the “most urgent issue facing” us today. Lots of concern about the Economy and Jobs. Reproductive Healthcare continues to motivate voters, not just on this question (Top Issue facing the nation). It dominates our “Single Issue that will determine your vote” question. Climate Change and the Heatwave are also very prominent right now.

Right now, we are very focused on GOTV in Ohio. As noted above, we are importing experienced volunteers into the state, people who want to make sure Ohio defeats Issue 1 which is on a special election ballot this August. Our campaign GOTV (or electoral battle) plan in Ohio is really simple, comprising of 3 phases — the last two actually running concurrently with the first.

Phase 1 is our hybrid GOTV/Issues Canvass , which is ongoing through August 5. We are knocking on doors in the suburbs of the major metro regions, prioritizing Democratic households. Even though this is a hybrid approach, we are weeding out voter households where everyone has already voted. 3 households were eliminated from our voter lists last Saturday because everyone in that household had voted. (This represented 9 votes)

Phase 2 is pure GOTV . This has already begun. Voters who we have identified as opposing Issue 1 will receive follow-up until the voter file (VAN) tells us they have voted. This is really a kitchen sink effort, and voters do ask, “How can I get off this list?” Pretty simple, you go vote and *we* won’t contact you again after your vote is acknowledged by the elections board. Early voting in Ohio began a couple of weeks ago.

This has already begun. Voters who we have identified as opposing Issue 1 will receive follow-up until the voter file (VAN) tells us they have voted. This is really a kitchen sink effort, and voters do ask, “How can I get off this list?” Pretty simple, you go vote and *we* won’t contact you again after your vote is acknowledged by the elections board. Early voting in Ohio began a couple of weeks ago. Phase 3 is Ballot (or signature) Curing. Often, we will reach voters before they even receive their official notice their ballot is missing the required signature for their vote to count. Voters have until August 15th to remedy the issue.

355,462 Ohioans have voted early, according to the Ohio Secretary of State. We don’t have the report from yesterday at this time.

So far, Hope Springs from Field volunteers have found 9,277 voters who plan to vote against Issue 1. This does not include people who have already voted, nor does it include people who we have been told plan to do so. I am writing this before we canvass today in Ohio (again) and we are really looking forward to see what today’s volunteer turnout is for this GOTV canvass. Those 9,277 voters represent (at this time) our GOTV universe which begins next Friday!

If support our grassroots efforts to turn out voters opposed to Issue 1 in Ohio and to cure early vote ballots that are (usually) missing a signature, please help:

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hope4ohio

87 people filled out new voter registration forms for their states during last weekend’s canvassing. I write forms but most often these are completed on a tablet from their state’s election administrative website. Another 369 voters updated their address, as required by HAVA. We differentiate between the two, though, because brand new voters are often ignored by campaigns and we hope to compensate for that somewhat by having volunteers send them post cards before the election and they are also getting robocalls thanking them for registering. You can see that the number of voters registered is not a function of the number of volunteers present or doors knocked. Clearly, they help, but there’s no guarantee that more doors equals more voters registered. Even though registering voters is a primary rationale behind early canvassing, it is not the only one. Just wanted to point that out.

We collected 786 Constituent Service Request Forms last week. Not exactly sure why (of course), but this was also the highest number of CSR forms for a Saturday. In general, we send these to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the CSR and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.

We continue to walk with Incident Reports, and we ask people who say they are concerned about the upcoming general election if they want to fill one out. Last Saturday, 8 voters filled out Incident Reports, detailing acts of voter intimidation or voter suppression they witnessed in a prior election.

We pass along Incident Reports to the Lawyer’s Committee for Civil Rights and NALEO (those that correspond to Hispanic precincts), and send copies to state Democratic Party committees. But our purpose is to combine this information with the two independent databases of voting incidents to look for patterns before the election and use that information for warning district, state and U.S. attorneys’ offices that we could see those patterns resurface on election day. We will also use it to target Election Day Protection activity.

By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions in some states, Hope Springs from Field PAC seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them. There’s a lot of work to be done, but fortunately, the three states that are making it most difficult are also states in which you can knock on doors at least 10 months out of the year. And, with your help, we will be there, getting our people to super-comply with these restrictive provisions.

I am aware of the volume of data presented in this post. But it is the result of the data we collect at the door, to be entered in VAN and accessible by all Democratic candidates who utilize VAN this Fall. The focus on the “horse-race” aspect of this data is unintentional, because the data is what the it is. It is useful for Democratic candidates and provides paths to victory for data-driven candidates (which most campaigns are these days).

We really do need financial support to continue these operations, and you will notice that right now we are specifically asking for your donations to help defeat Issue 1 on the ground by turning out the vote in Ohio. If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hope4ohio

If you would rather send a check, you can follow that link for our mailing address, as well. Thank you for your support. This work depends on you!

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/29/2183820/-Just-the-Stats-Man-Weekly-Canvass-Report-from-FL-GA-MI-MT-NC-NV-OH-PA-WI-VA

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