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Could Mississippi Elect a Democratic Governor? [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2023-07-29
Incumbent Republican Governor Tate Reeves and his Democratic opponent, Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley gave speeches at the Neshoba County Fair on Thursday.
The Fair is a major political event in Mississippi. Many people in the rest of the country first heard of it when Ronald Reagan chose to launch his 1980 presidential campaign at the fair. The combination of the fact that the only association most Americans had with “Neshoba County” was the Klan murders of three civil rights workers there in 1964 and Reagan emphasized in his speech, “I believe in states' rights,” it was clearly intended as a dog whistle to voters.
The days of dog whistles are long over in the Republican Party, but the direction in which Reagan turned the party that year would lead eventually to where it is in the age of Trump.
Presley focused his ten-minute speech on issues he has raised throughout his campaign: His pledge to eliminate the sales tax on groceries, which is the highest in the nation, the financial crisis facing many of the state’s hospitals, which has been caused in substantial part by the refusal of Reeves and the Republican-dominated state legislature to accept Medicaid expansion available under the Affordable Care Act, which Presley promises to accept, and a massive scandal in which welfare funds were diverted to improper purposes while Reeves was lieutenant governor.
Brandon Presley speaking with voters.
For his part, the incumbent tried to take credit for Mississippi’s low unemployment rate without mentioning that record low unemployment is a nationwide phenomenon brought about by the programs of President Biden and Democrats—programs that almost all Republicans opposed and are still trying to roll back.
Reeves said that Presley wants Mississippi “to be more like California. … more like the east coast,” and as long as he is governor that will never happen.
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The incumbent, like the extremists in his party in the nation’s Capitol and across the country, has ignored the needs of the people and is focusing entirely on largely made-up issues of the “culture wars.”
In May, the Reeves campaign posted on the social media platform formerly known as Twitter a video with Reeves’ face digitally superimposed on that of Clint Eastwood in a clip to depict the governor as a “real man” shooting Mexicans. It was a pathetic attempt to make Reeves, who has a rather wimpy appearance, look “manly.” Think of Sen. Josh Hawley (R, MO) raising his fist in the air in what one supposes was intended to be a “White Power!” gesture before the January 6 invasion of the Capitol and then running for his life when the insurrectionists broke into the building.
Still from a Tate Reeves campaign video in which he pretends to be a “real man.”
A recent Reeves television commercial shows the governor at his daughter’s soccer practice. “I never thought I’d see the day where radical Democrats are working to give boys opportunities meant for girls,” he says, “but here we are. As governor, I’ll hold the line against this insanity in Mississippi.”
“Based on the time Reeves devotes to talking about transgender women and girls competing in sports,” a piece in Mississippi Today noted, “it sure looks like he believes it is the No. 1 issue of this campaign season.”
Yet no one has been able to find even “one trans athlete [in Mississippi] competing in sports that align with the athlete’s gender identity.”
That’s the sort of non-issue Republicans across the country are trying to get voters to focus on.
A hint of how fertile the ground in Mississippi might be to culture war appeals can be seen in a map of Google trends on Barbie vs. Oppenheimer during the first week of the blockbuster films:
After they saw Barbie, some of the right-wingers may have thought they made a mistake.
On real issues, a Siena College/Mississippi Today poll found that Reeves is on the wrong side. For example, 55% said they would only vote for a candidate who would expand Medicaid and 58% would only vote for a candidate who supports eliminating the grocery tax.
That poll in April also found that 21 percent of those planning to vote in the Republican primary said they would vote for Presley in November, but also found Reeves with an 11-point lead. Other polls have ranged from Presley ahead by 4 points to Reeves ahead by 17. Both of those can be disregarded as outliers. An Impact Research Poll in late April showing the race at Reeves 47, Presley 44 is likely closer to the reality at the moment, though I suspect that Reeves currently has a bit larger lead.
If there is a large turnout of African American voters, a Democrat could win a statewide race in Mississippi with a bit less than 30 percent of the white vote. Presley has a real chance to get that, but black voter turnout has historically been as high as it needs to be to give a Democrat a chance to win only when there is a black candidate at the head of the ticket (i.e. 2008 and 2012).
Still, Reeves is unlikable and on the wrong side of the important issues, and the Democrat has a surname that is magical among many white Mississippians. Though still an uphill race for Presley, a Democratic victory in Mississippi would be a political earthquake with a very high number on the Richter Scale. As John Lennon put it, “You may say I’m a dreamer, but I’m not the only one.”
NOTE: To be sure you don’t miss any of my commentaries, sign up for a paid or free subscription to my Substack column at robertsmcelvaine.substack.com.
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