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Kansas State House Districts (2024): HD 17, HD 18, HD 27, HD 33, HD 39 [1]

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Date: 2023-07-28

Today, I am going to be looking at five more Kansas house districts: HD 17, HD 18, HD 27, HD 33, and HD 39, all of which are based in the Kansas City suburbs, specifically Johnson County in the case of four of the districts, HD 33 being the exception.

Kansas House District 17

KS HD 17 contains parts of Lenexa and Shawnee. HD 17 trended heavily towards the Dems under the pre-2022 boundaries, having gone from supporting Mitt Romney by about 15.5 points to narrowly supporting Hillary Clinton by a little more than a percentage point and Joe Biden by a larger margin of about 12 points. In 2016, Republican Tom Cox held onto the district fairly easily, winning the open seat by a little more than 13 points, despite Clinton simultaneously carrying it by a narrow margin. The 2018 state house race was very close, however, with Cox being reelected by just 3 points and with under 50% of the vote (there was a Libertarian on the ballot, as was the case with the two subsequent house races). Democrat Jo Ella Hoye was able to flip the seat in 2020, winning the open race by about 5 points. The 2022 redistricting altered the boundaries of HD 17 fairly significantly, with the northern part of the old district removed and the new district expanding further west, among other changes. However, the district’s partisan lean didn’t change all that much, with Biden’s margin shrinking by less than a percentage point. Hoye won reelection in 2022 by about 9 points, improving on her previous margin. The district has the potential to be competitive, given its ancestral GOP nature, but Hoye should be heavily favored. I’m classifying HD 17 as Likely Democrat, but could see potentially shifting it to Lean Democrat if Republicans nominate a strong candidate).

Kansas House District 18

KS HD 18 is located just east of HD 17 and contains parts of Shawnee. HD 18 moved several points to left under the pre-2022 boundaries, with Romney carrying the district by a little more than 10 points, Clinton carrying it by a little more than 2 points, and Biden carrying it by about 8 points. The district featured competitive state house races in both 2012 and 2014, with Republican John Rubin winning by about 6 points and 4 points, respectively. Democrat Cindy Neighbor, who challenged Rubin in 2014, managed to flip the district in 2016, as she won the open seat by a little less than 5 points. Neighbor was reelected by a slightly larger 7-point margin in 2018 (against the same GOP challenger she faced in 2016) and by a closer margin of just under 5 points in 2020 (in line with her 2016 performance). The 2022 redistricting made HD 18 a few points bluer, with Biden’s margin expanding to about 10 points. Neighbor easily held onto the seat in 2022, winning by between 14 and 15 points. Neighbor should be fairly safe, but the district still warrants notice, given how competitive many of the previous races were. I’m classifying HD 18 as Likely Democrat.

Kansas House District 27

KS HD 27 is located at the southeastern end of Johnson County, encompassing communities such as Aubry. Under the pre-2022 boundaries, HD 27 was a solidly Republican district that swung heavily towards the Dems. In particular, the district went from supporting Romney by a very large margin of over 38 points to supporting Trump by a narrower margin of between 21 and 22 points in 2016 and by an even closer margin of about 11.5 points in 2020. Republican Sean Tarwater Sr. easily won the open seat in 2016 by over 38 points and was reelected by about 21 points in 2018 and by about 27 points in 2020. The 2022 redistricting did not alter HD 27 significantly, with Trump’s 2020 margin shrinking by less than a percentage point. Tarwater held onto the seat in 2022, winning by a fairly comfortable margin of between 14 and 15 points, though it should be noted that this was his closest race yet. The GOP should be fairly safe here this cycle, but the district is still worth keeping an eye on, given the progress Dems have been making. I’m classifying HD 27 as Likely Republican.

Kansas House District 33

KS HD 33 is based in Wyandotte County, home to Kansas City, and contains the community of Edwardsville. HD 33 moved to the left under the pre-2022 boundaries, though not as rapidly as other parts of the Kansas City suburbs, with the district being within single-digits at the presidential level in the last three elections. Specifically, the district went from supporting Romney by about 8 points to supporting Trump by just 4 votes in 2016 (practically a tie with Clinton) to supporting Biden by 6 points. Interestingly enough, the Democrats held the seat until 2022, with Dem incumbent Tom Burroughs easily winning the district by 16 points in 2012 and being reelected by a considerably closer 3-point margin in 2014. The Republicans did not contest the district in 2016 or 2018, with Burroughs running entirely unopposed in 2016 and only facing Libertarian opposition in 2018. The 2020 state house race was quite competitive, with Burroughs winning a plurality of the vote and being reelected by a 7-point margin, though it should be noted that there was a Libertarian candidate on the ballot that got nearly 10% of the vote. The 2022 redistricting made HD 33 several points redder, as Trump would have now very narrowly carried the district by less than a percentage a point in 2020. Republican Mike Thompson managed to flip the district in 2022, winning the open seat by between 5 and 6 points. (Again, there was a Libertarian candidate on the ballot.) Thompson should have an edge this cycle, given that he now has the advantage of incumbency, but the district should be competitive. I’m classifying HD 33 as Lean Republican (but could potentially see shifting it Toss-Up if the Dems nominate a strong candidate).

Kansas House District 39

KS HD 33 is located at the northernmost end of Johnson County and contains parts of Shawnee (like HDs 17 and 18). HD 39 swung heavily towards the Dems under the pre-2022 boundaries, with Romney carrying the district by about 27.5 points and Trump carrying it by a narrower 14-point margin in 2016 and by a very close margin of just over 4 points in 2020. The Republicans easily held this seat in 2012, 2014, 2016, with the GOP candidates winning these races by at least 20 points and with over 60% of the vote. The 2018 state house race was competitive, though, with Republican Owen Donohoe winning the open seat by just under 7 points. Donohoe was reelected by a slightly larger margin of between 9 and 10 points in 2020. The 2022 redistricting made HD 39 slightly more favorable to Dems, with Trump’s 2020 margin shrinking to just under 3 points. The 2022 house race was extremely close, with Donohoe narrowly winning reelection by just 2 points. The district should be competitive again this cycle and a strong pick-up opportunity for Democrats. I’m classifying HD 39 as a Toss Up.

Thanks to cnalysis (for the 2020 presidential results of the new districts) and Daily Kos Elections (for the presidential results of the old districts).

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/28/2183774/-Kansas-State-House-Districts-2024-HD-17-HD-18-HD-27-HD-33-HD-39

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