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Ukraine Invasion Day 519: now starts the main thrust of the counteroffensive. [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-07-26

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations near Bakhmut and did not make any confirmed advances on July 26. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Ukrainian forces continue to conduct successful offensive operations on the southern flank of Bakhmut. [50] Malyar and Ukrainian Donetsk Oblast Military Administration Head Pavlo Kyrylenko reported that fighting is ongoing near Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut), Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut), and Kurdyumivka (13km southwest of Bakhmut). [51]

Russian forces conducted ground attacks around Bakhmut and did not make any confirmed or claimed advances on July 26. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful attacks north of Khromove (immediately west of Bakhmut), north of Klishchiivka, east of Stupochky (12km southwest of Bakhmut), near Dyliivka (15km southwest of Bakhmut), and east of Druzhba (18km southwest of Bakhmut). [55] ... Geolocated footage published on July 26 purportedly shows Ukrainian forces striking an unspecified Chechen infantry unit north of Kurdyumivka (13km southwest of Bakhmut). [57] Footage published on July 26 purportedly shows elements of the “Lynx” (Rys) Special Rapid Response Unit (SOBR) evacuating wounded Russian personnel near Bakhmut and elements of the 58th Separate Spetsnaz Battalion (1st Donetsk People’s Republic Army [DNR] Corps) operating in the Bakhmut direction. [58]

The battlefield geometry around Robotyne, as well as the force composition of the Russian elements defending there, offer important color to speculation surrounding the Ukrainian attack and gains. Geolocated footage from July 27 shows two Ukrainian Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and a T-72 tank either disabled or abandoned about 2.5km due east of Robotyne, which is a point that is about 2.5km south of the current frontline. [7] This geolocated point is beyond the forward-most pre-prepared Russian defensive fortifications in this area, indicating that Ukrainian forces managed to penetrate and drive through tactically challenging defensive positions. This kind of penetration battle will be one of the most difficult things for Ukrainian forces to accomplish in pursuit of deeper penetrations, as ISW has previously assessed. The defensive lines that run further south of Robotyne are likely less well-manned than these forward-most positions, considering that Russian forces have likely had to commit a significant portion of available forces to man the first line of defensive positions that are north and east of Robotyne.

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/26/2183485/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-519-now-starts-the-main-thrust-of-the-counteroffensive

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